mario carbonell wrote:We can see that in the game of go, AlphaZero was still learning, but at chess seemed to have arrived to a plateau. Maybe the maximum strength?
No, we're talking about 1 minute per move chess, and 3400 ELO at 1/minute move is laughably weak.
For instance, let's suppose that you invite Eros Riccio to a match against Stockfish at 1/minute move (the same A0 played), while Eros gets his usual time control, say, 30 day starting time, with 30 day added every 10 days.
Eros's handicap will be that he isn't able to upgrade his machine, or download new engines, he's going to be frozen in time with today's technology.
So, given these conditions, what would be the expected result of such a match?
Eros is defeating the very best correspondence chess Centaurs, that are also getting 30 days every 10 moves, so it's not surprising to expect that it'd defeat 1/min move Stockfish 100-0.
100 wins, 0 draws, 0 loses.
Sure, the match would take 30 years, and it's meaningless because Eros is able to use any engine, book, and latest Dev Stockfish to choose his moves, but that's not the point...
The point is that chess moves exist that are able to defeat Stockfish at 1/min move 100% of the time, and A0 wasn't able to find them in 72 of these games.
It's clear that, at least at 1/mine move conditions we're really far away from maximum strength, and the question is if one can create an entity that plays the moves Eros takes days, or weeks to find, while being limited to 1/min move.
And what ELO such an entity would have?
7000 doesn't sound as crazy considering this 100-0 result stands even if you allow Stockfish 1day/move, because with its stupid search it's going to decide on a move very soon and stick with it for the rest of the hours, due to branching factor, doing something useless the rest of the time (and that's why analysis methods like iDeA or DPA exist so the engine would build a more useful analysis tree.)
Heck, you may not need Eros, let RomiChess train against Stockfish for a day for each of its moves against Stockfish at 1/min move, and it might defeat it soundly, just because 1/min move is such a short time frame and it can be easily exploited by a x1440 time advantage, we just need an entity that can find those moves within 1 minute, but what is stopping us?