ELO inflation ha ha ha

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Henk
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ELO inflation ha ha ha

Post by Henk » Fri Sep 16, 2016 9:55 pm

TCEC rapid: Stockfish-Delphil 1/2-1/2 but ELO difference 900 points.

I can't imagine I would play a draw against a 800 player if my ELO rating would be 1700.

Henk
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Re: ELO inflation ha ha ha

Post by Henk » Fri Sep 16, 2016 10:15 pm

Sorry Stockfish played with black.

JJJ
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Re: ELO inflation ha ha ha

Post by JJJ » Fri Sep 16, 2016 10:48 pm

Henk wrote:TCEC rapid: Stockfish-Delphil 1/2-1/2 but ELO difference 900 points.

I can't imagine I would play a draw against a 800 player if my ELO rating would be 1700.
1700 is more than double of 800
2300 is 72% of 3200

So it's still unlikely to see a draw, but it can happens on very rare occasion.

Henk
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Re: ELO inflation ha ha ha

Post by Henk » Fri Sep 16, 2016 10:55 pm

Might be that Stockfish is already 'seeing' too much and that it assumes that it's opponent 'sees' that too. For instance it doesn't attack because it assumes it's opponent sees the right defense.

APassionForCriminalJustic
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Re: ELO inflation ha ha ha

Post by APassionForCriminalJustic » Sat Sep 17, 2016 2:22 am

Henk wrote:TCEC rapid: Stockfish-Delphil 1/2-1/2 but ELO difference 900 points.

I can't imagine I would play a draw against a 800 player if my ELO rating would be 1700.
That's exactly what is wrong with your point. Delphi is not really "weak". An 800 rated player couldn't beat a piece of lettuce. Delphi can still play some pretty decent chess. It was a complete fluke. Stockfish would have been better served with massive contempt. Delphi would miss most of what Stockfish sees anyway.

APassionForCriminalJustic
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Re: ELO inflation ha ha ha

Post by APassionForCriminalJustic » Sat Sep 17, 2016 2:23 am

Henk wrote:Might be that Stockfish is already 'seeing' too much and that it assumes that it's opponent 'sees' that too. For instance it doesn't attack because it assumes it's opponent sees the right defense.
Exactly.

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Laskos
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Re: ELO inflation ha ha ha

Post by Laskos » Sat Sep 17, 2016 5:37 am

Henk wrote:TCEC rapid: Stockfish-Delphil 1/2-1/2 but ELO difference 900 points.

I can't imagine I would play a draw against a 800 player if my ELO rating would be 1700.
Difference is probably around 700 ELO points in those conditions (800 on CCRL, but hardware in TCEC is stronger, ELO difference compresses a bit). Translated it means some 3% to make a draw. Not negligible.

Henk
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Re: ELO inflation ha ha ha

Post by Henk » Sat Sep 17, 2016 7:55 am

Isn't the further away from average the less impact an ELO difference has. I guess ELO 1600 is average strength of a player or is it more like 1200.

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Laskos
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Re: ELO inflation ha ha ha

Post by Laskos » Sat Sep 17, 2016 8:08 am

Henk wrote:Isn't the further away from average the less impact an ELO difference has. I guess ELO 1600 is average strength of a player or is it more like 1200.
I don't understand the question. With ELO, only the ELO difference counts, and the same ELO difference has the same winning percentage. So, if the ELO model is correct, then the score of 3800 against 3000 ELO is the same as 1800 versus 1000 ELO.

Henk
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Re: ELO inflation ha ha ha

Post by Henk » Sat Sep 17, 2016 8:29 am

Laskos wrote:
Henk wrote:Isn't the further away from average the less impact an ELO difference has. I guess ELO 1600 is average strength of a player or is it more like 1200.
I don't understand the question. With ELO, only the ELO difference counts, and the same ELO difference has the same winning percentage. So, if the ELO model is correct, then the score of 3800 against 3000 ELO is the same as 1800 versus 1000 ELO.
Someone told me that the chance of a draw from 2200 against 2600 player would be higher than a draw from 1800 against 2200 player. So that is nonsense.

By the way how do you convert ELO rating back into chance.

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