nTCEC simulation

[Don]

I'm doing my own stage 3 simulation of the TCEC results. After the last game where SF won, I get the following numbers where the first numeric column is the odds of winning stage 3 and the second is the odds of getting past this stage.

Code: Select all

Komodo         51.722      99.079
Houdini        29.546      97.005
Bouquet         9.401      89.045
Critter         3.897      75.284
Rybka           2.546      70.050
Hiarcs          1.297      51.536
Gull            0.851      49.407
Stockfish       0.617      49.407
Naum            0.123      18.600
Junior          0.000       0.587

Like any simulation I had to make certain assumptions, some of them perhaps rather arbitrary. For example the ELO ratings are based on the long time control rating lists with TCEC results from this season folded in, which give Komodo a 25 ELO advantage over Houdini. I reduced Komodo to only 10 ELO over Houdini, purely based on intuition. I have a hard time believing it is 25 ELO over Houdini even though it's improved over Komodo 6 and it's at a time control ideal for Komodo.

The draw rate is based on the ELO difference using a formula Adam Hair suggested. It peaks at 60% draw rate for programs that are equal and it's just an approximation.

I give the white player a 40 ELO advantage for purposes of simulating who will win any given game.

Prior to the last Stockfish game there was about a 33% chance of Stockfish even making it the next stage, but this last win improved those odds to about 50% now. I think we all want to see Stockfish make it to the next stage.

[Milos]

Like any simulation I had to make certain assumptions, some of them perhaps rather arbitrary. For example the ELO ratings are based on the long time control rating lists with TCEC results from this season folded in, which give Komodo a 25 ELO advantage over Houdini. I reduced Komodo to only 10 ELO over Houdini, purely based on intuition. I have a hard time believing it is 25 ELO over Houdini even though it's improved over Komodo 6 and it's at a time control ideal for Komodo.

Lol, really have to laugh at this.
You have Komodo advangate over Houdini of 25 Elo (or 10 Elo, or whatever). Are you aware that your 2 sigma error bars are at least 100 Elo?
How meaningful is your reasult?

You sound like ignorant crowd at TCEC chat that is basing its predictions on the last 1-3 games.
There is no evidence dev Komodo is stronger than even H3. There is no evidence Komodo is stronger than SF.
Chance for SF not to qualify for next stage is less than 20%. If it does, chance for Komodo to be in super final is at most 60%. To win super final is at most 50%. Overall, chance for Komodo to win all is less than 30%.

[Don]

Like any simulation I had to make certain assumptions, some of them perhaps rather arbitrary. For example the ELO ratings are based on the long time control rating lists with TCEC results from this season folded in, which give Komodo a 25 ELO advantage over Houdini. I reduced Komodo to only 10 ELO over Houdini, purely based on intuition. I have a hard time believing it is 25 ELO over Houdini even though it's improved over Komodo 6 and it's at a time control ideal for Komodo.

Lol, really have to laugh at this.
You have Komodo advangate over Houdini of 25 Elo (or 10 Elo, or whatever). Are you aware that your 2 sigma error bars are at least 100 Elo?
How meaningful is your reasult?

You are always very quick to criticize and piss all over anything you see. I am glad we are not friends.

[Joerg Oster]

Like any simulation I had to make certain assumptions, some of them perhaps rather arbitrary. For example the ELO ratings are based on the long time control rating lists with TCEC results from this season folded in, which give Komodo a 25 ELO advantage over Houdini. I reduced Komodo to only 10 ELO over Houdini, purely based on intuition. I have a hard time believing it is 25 ELO over Houdini even though it's improved over Komodo 6 and it's at a time control ideal for Komodo.

Lol, really have to laugh at this.
You have Komodo advangate over Houdini of 25 Elo (or 10 Elo, or whatever). Are you aware that your 2 sigma error bars are at least 100 Elo?
How meaningful is your reasult?

You sound like ignorant crowd at TCEC chat that is basing its predictions on the last 1-3 games.
There is no evidence dev Komodo is stronger than even H3. There is no evidence Komodo is stronger than SF.
Chance for SF not to qualify for next stange is less than 20%. There chance for Komodo to be in super final is at most 33%. To win super final is at most 50%. Overall, chance for Komodo to win all is less than 18%.

How meaningful is your comment?
It is not a rating list, but a simulation.

Komodo does a great job so far in nTCEC. Unlike Stockfish, which is playing a bit unfortunate.
Komodo will be in the super final. No doubt.

[Milos]

Like any simulation I had to make certain assumptions, some of them perhaps rather arbitrary. For example the ELO ratings are based on the long time control rating lists with TCEC results from this season folded in, which give Komodo a 25 ELO advantage over Houdini. I reduced Komodo to only 10 ELO over Houdini, purely based on intuition. I have a hard time believing it is 25 ELO over Houdini even though it's improved over Komodo 6 and it's at a time control ideal for Komodo.

Lol, really have to laugh at this.
You have Komodo advangate over Houdini of 25 Elo (or 10 Elo, or whatever). Are you aware that your 2 sigma error bars are at least 100 Elo?
How meaningful is your reasult?

You are always very quick to criticize and piss all over anything you see. I am glad we are not friends.

Sure I'm very quick to criticize meaningless completely unsound posts that have nothing to do with facts.
I.e. wishful thinking and engine self-promotion is one thing, but reality is something completely different.

[Milos]

How meaningful is your comment?
It is not a rating list, but a simulation.

Komodo does a great job so far in nTCEC. Unlike Stockfish, which is playing a bit unfortunate.
Komodo will be in the super final. No doubt.

It is not simulation, it is a projection of wishful thinking or simply self-promotion. I'm sorry that you can't see it.

[Milos]

Komodo will be in the super final. No doubt.

I say Komodo has 60% to be in the super final, you say no doubt it will be there. How many percent is that "no doubt" - 95%, 99%?
Lets say your no doubt is only 95%.
So I'm saying Komodo has 40% chance not to be in super final, you say 5%.
That is 1:8 odds.
So are you ready to put the money where your mouth is?
If Komodo goes into final I'll give you 10 bucks, but if it doesn't you'll give me 80, deal?

[Don]

Like any simulation I had to make certain assumptions, some of them perhaps rather arbitrary. For example the ELO ratings are based on the long time control rating lists with TCEC results from this season folded in, which give Komodo a 25 ELO advantage over Houdini. I reduced Komodo to only 10 ELO over Houdini, purely based on intuition. I have a hard time believing it is 25 ELO over Houdini even though it's improved over Komodo 6 and it's at a time control ideal for Komodo.

Lol, really have to laugh at this.
You have Komodo advangate over Houdini of 25 Elo (or 10 Elo, or whatever). Are you aware that your 2 sigma error bars are at least 100 Elo?
How meaningful is your reasult?

You sound like ignorant crowd at TCEC chat that is basing its predictions on the last 1-3 games.
There is no evidence dev Komodo is stronger than even H3. There is no evidence Komodo is stronger than SF.
Chance for SF not to qualify for next stange is less than 20%. There chance for Komodo to be in super final is at most 33%. To win super final is at most 50%. Overall, chance for Komodo to win all is less than 18%.

How meaningful is your comment?
It is not a rating list, but a simulation.

Komodo does a great job so far in nTCEC. Unlike Stockfish, which is playing a bit unfortunate.
Komodo will be in the super final. No doubt.

It's not a sure thing by any means but I would like to see it there.

[Laskos]

I'm doing my own stage 3 simulation of the TCEC results. After the last game where SF won, I get the following numbers where the first numeric column is the odds of winning stage 3 and the second is the odds of getting past this stage.

Code: Select all

Komodo         51.722      99.079
Houdini        29.546      97.005
Bouquet         9.401      89.045
Critter         3.897      75.284
Rybka           2.546      70.050
Hiarcs          1.297      51.536
Gull            0.851      49.407
Stockfish       0.617      49.407
Naum            0.123      18.600
Junior          0.000       0.587

Like any simulation I had to make certain assumptions, some of them perhaps rather arbitrary. For example the ELO ratings are based on the long time control rating lists with TCEC results from this season folded in, which give Komodo a 25 ELO advantage over Houdini. I reduced Komodo to only 10 ELO over Houdini, purely based on intuition. I have a hard time believing it is 25 ELO over Houdini even though it's improved over Komodo 6 and it's at a time control ideal for Komodo.

The draw rate is based on the ELO difference using a formula Adam Hair suggested. It peaks at 60% draw rate for programs that are equal and it's just an approximation.

I give the white player a 40 ELO advantage for purposes of simulating who will win any given game.

Prior to the last Stockfish game there was about a 33% chance of Stockfish even making it the next stage, but this last win improved those odds to about 50% now. I think we all want to see Stockfish make it to the next stage.

Quite similar to my simulations, here is after 45th game in Stage 3 (hallway through the stage), but I don't have a draw model, and white/black difference.
http://www.tcec-chess.net/viewtopic.php ... 9&start=45

Hope you will give us regular updates during the progress of the nTCEC, as your simulations seem to make much sense.

[Laskos]

I can give my simulations for Stage 4 and the Superfinal, after 45 games in Stage 3:

To qualify for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo:   62%
Houdini:  53%
SF:       27%
Rybka:    15%
Critter:  15%
Bouquet:  14%
Gull:     11%
Hiarcs:    1%
Naum:      1%
Junior:    0%

To win nTCEC:

Code: Select all

Komodo:   47%
Houdini:  30%
SF:       12%
Rybka:     3%
Critter:   3%
Bouquet:   3%
Gull:      2%
Hiarcs:    0%
Naum:      0%
Junior:    0%