What does the future of computer chess look like to you?

Discussion of chess software programming and technical issues.

Moderators: hgm, Rebel, chrisw

wgarvin
Posts: 838
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2007 5:03 pm
Location: British Columbia, Canada

What does the future of computer chess look like to you?

Post by wgarvin »

I'll split this from the other thread rather than completely derailing it.
sje wrote:
Guetti wrote:6) 4 MB? This leaves not much space for the transposition table. :cry:
Back in the Old Days when one could play with Chess 4.x on a 1960s CDC 6500 console, that program could scale its transposition table requirements down to a mere 256 entries. Each entry took a word and a half (96 bits) of ECS (Extended Core Storage). On that CDC CPU model, the program only scored a few hundred positions per second. Close to, but not quite as good as what I was able to do with a 1986 Macintosh Plus running at 8 MHz.

And yet, back then in the 1960s and early 1970s with punch cards, paper tape, and no Internet, the relative paucity of chess program authors seemed to produce new ideas and discoveries rather faster than is done today.

Does this tell us something?
If anything, I think it tells us is that a lot of ground has been covered since then. Alpha-beta-based search techniques grew to completely dominate computer chess--nearly all successful techniques discovered or invented since then have been incremental innovations in the context of alpha-beta-based programs. We're now up to the point where a new engine has to implement many of these specific enhancements in order to be a strong competitor. Perhaps, like specialization in any branch of science or mathematics, the deeper you go, the more esoteric it becomes? Perhaps computer chess programmers have mined most of the gold from alpha-beta techniques? There will probably continue to be improvements, like the LMR techniques that have become so popular lately, but nobody has shown anything wildly different from alpha-beta which could compete with it in overall effectiveness at playing chess. I hope SJE's efforts with Lisp will bear fruit, but even if they don't, I think its important and useful that he's trying something radically different (instead of "running with the pack", i.e. making yet another alpha-beta-based engine).

What bothers me is that as computing resources continue to grow, computer-vs-human chess will basically cease to be interesting (if it hasn't already). Will the engine authors then continue to compete just to see who can make the strongest computer player? Perhaps some of them will switch to writing engines for Go instead, but many people have invested a lot of effort into computer chess, and into their existing alpha-beta-based engines.

Some people here have invested 15 or 20 years in it already... I am not a chess player, so I can't truly appreciate what drives most of you. But I think there must be something marvellous about chess that it still compels your interest after so many years! What motivates you the most? Is it interest in the game of chess itself? Or the fun of competing against each other? Or the satisfaction when you find something that improves your engine's playing strength?

I'm also curious, do you guys still expect to be doing computer chess a few years from now? It feels like there are more engine authors than ever before, but does computer chess still feel like "undiscovered country" to you guys? I mean, do you feel like explorers going where no man has gone before, or do you feel more like laborers digging up small bits of hard-earned gold that was surveyed ages ago?

Are you interested in continuing, and pushing it as far as it can possibly go? How close do you feel we are to the goal, of making a chess engine "as strong as humans can make it" ? Do you expect that changing technology will make current designs sub-optimal, so that there will still be lots of room for discovery and tweaking your engines to make them more optimal on the technology of the day?

Sorry for all the questions. If anyone wants to, just answer the question(s) which you would most enjoy answering. :D
Dann Corbit
Posts: 12540
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:57 pm
Location: Redmond, WA USA

Re: What does the future of computer chess look like to you?

Post by Dann Corbit »

wgarvin wrote:I'll split this from the other thread rather than completely derailing it.
sje wrote:
Guetti wrote:6) 4 MB? This leaves not much space for the transposition table. :cry:
Back in the Old Days when one could play with Chess 4.x on a 1960s CDC 6500 console, that program could scale its transposition table requirements down to a mere 256 entries. Each entry took a word and a half (96 bits) of ECS (Extended Core Storage). On that CDC CPU model, the program only scored a few hundred positions per second. Close to, but not quite as good as what I was able to do with a 1986 Macintosh Plus running at 8 MHz.

And yet, back then in the 1960s and early 1970s with punch cards, paper tape, and no Internet, the relative paucity of chess program authors seemed to produce new ideas and discoveries rather faster than is done today.

Does this tell us something?
If anything, I think it tells us is that a lot of ground has been covered since then. Alpha-beta-based search techniques grew to completely dominate computer chess--nearly all successful techniques discovered or invented since then have been incremental innovations in the context of alpha-beta-based programs. We're now up to the point where a new engine has to implement many of these specific enhancements in order to be a strong competitor. Perhaps, like specialization in any branch of science or mathematics, the deeper you go, the more esoteric it becomes? Perhaps computer chess programmers have mined most of the gold from alpha-beta techniques? There will probably continue to be improvements, like the LMR techniques that have become so popular lately, but nobody has shown anything wildly different from alpha-beta which could compete with it in overall effectiveness at playing chess. I hope SJE's efforts with Lisp will bear fruit, but even if they don't, I think its important and useful that he's trying something radically different (instead of "running with the pack", i.e. making yet another alpha-beta-based engine).

What bothers me is that as computing resources continue to grow, computer-vs-human chess will basically cease to be interesting (if it hasn't already). Will the engine authors then continue to compete just to see who can make the strongest computer player? Perhaps some of them will switch to writing engines for Go instead, but many people have invested a lot of effort into computer chess, and into their existing alpha-beta-based engines.

Some people here have invested 15 or 20 years in it already... I am not a chess player, so I can't truly appreciate what drives most of you. But I think there must be something marvellous about chess that it still compels your interest after so many years! What motivates you the most? Is it interest in the game of chess itself? Or the fun of competing against each other? Or the satisfaction when you find something that improves your engine's playing strength?

I'm also curious, do you guys still expect to be doing computer chess a few years from now? It feels like there are more engine authors than ever before, but does computer chess still feel like "undiscovered country" to you guys? I mean, do you feel like explorers going where no man has gone before, or do you feel more like laborers digging up small bits of hard-earned gold that was surveyed ages ago?

Are you interested in continuing, and pushing it as far as it can possibly go? How close do you feel we are to the goal, of making a chess engine "as strong as humans can make it" ? Do you expect that changing technology will make current designs sub-optimal, so that there will still be lots of room for discovery and tweaking your engines to make them more optimal on the technology of the day?

Sorry for all the questions. If anyone wants to, just answer the question(s) which you would most enjoy answering. :D
The reason I like computer chess is the occasional Morphy/Capablanca like moves that take your breath away.

For a long time, perhaps 10 years, computers were stronger than almost everyone (there are only about 500 GMs, after all). So the threshold of passing human ability has long been in the sights.

But when computers are a thousand times stronger than the strongest human, we can still ponder the moves that the computers come up with and even improve our game by learing the ideas behind it.

For me, chess is a beautiful game. I have played it since I was little and it has not lost any fascination for me. If anything, I like it a lot more now that I used to (I guess it has arrived at the 'disease' level in my case).

Anyway, I guess that computers will continue to advance until they play chess beyond any hope of human comprehension.

Ray Kurzweil hypothesizes cyborg relationships between computers and humans:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.ht ... t0449.html?

At any rate, studies of this nature are fascinating until closed. I am not as interested in checkers now as I used to be, because we know the answer to the outcome of the game. But I guess that Chess will not be solved soon. If chess should become solved, and if my fascination should reduce, I guess I will pick up some other study.

Chess is just one of my hobbies anyway. I probably spend more time on algorithms research than chess, for instance.
Gerd Isenberg
Posts: 2250
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:47 pm
Location: Hattingen, Germany

Re: What does the future of computer chess look like to you?

Post by Gerd Isenberg »

The proletarization from academical ai-researchers to programmers already took place in computer chess. While the static knowledge versus search battle is still open imho, it is more and more about implementation issues of well known algorithms. Otoh there is so much garbage inside our search trees, which calls for further reductions or pruning.

For me computer chess is a hobby, an intellectual balance compared to my professional job as software developer, which somehow becomes more and more boring and stressful. The main source of my motivation is caused by bit-twiddling and SIMD-stuff together with some new insight (for me) in mathematical correlations. I enjoy my current quad-bitboard color flipper, where the engine has always white to move. Developing a chess program without pressure just for fun.

Gerd
mjlef
Posts: 1494
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2006 2:08 pm

Re: What does the future of computer chess look like to you?

Post by mjlef »

Gerd Isenberg wrote:The proletarization from academical ai-researchers to programmers already took place in computer chess. While the static knowledge versus search battle is still open imho, it is more and more about implementation issues of well known algorithms. Otoh there is so much garbage inside our search trees, which calls for further reductions or pruning.

For me computer chess is a hobby, an intellectual balance compared to my professional job as software developer, which somehow becomes more and more boring and stressful. The main source of my motivation is caused by bit-twiddling and SIMD-stuff together with some new insight (for me) in mathematical correlations. I enjoy my current quad-bitboard color flipper, where the engine has always white to move. Developing a chess program without pressure just for fun.

Gerd
I think academics "lost" a long time ago. I see many papers that to me at least, seem unscientific. Things like "lets take a program with no pruning, then add this strange thingsand show it works". Well, yes, but is it better than now decades old null search? Then other papers that say that "this not-really-very-clever trick solves this set of problem faster than doing nothing at all". Well, duh. Using problem sets to try and prove an idea makes a program stronger is a bit like picking the US President based on how fast he can build a doll house model of the White House. It seems to me the best programmers apply the scientific method better, and that is why they make stronger programs.

I hope what I wrote only offended people who wanted to be offended. :-)

Mark
Tony

Re: What does the future of computer chess look like to you?

Post by Tony »

mjlef wrote:
Gerd Isenberg wrote:The proletarization from academical ai-researchers to programmers already took place in computer chess. While the static knowledge versus search battle is still open imho, it is more and more about implementation issues of well known algorithms. Otoh there is so much garbage inside our search trees, which calls for further reductions or pruning.

For me computer chess is a hobby, an intellectual balance compared to my professional job as software developer, which somehow becomes more and more boring and stressful. The main source of my motivation is caused by bit-twiddling and SIMD-stuff together with some new insight (for me) in mathematical correlations. I enjoy my current quad-bitboard color flipper, where the engine has always white to move. Developing a chess program without pressure just for fun.

Gerd
I think academics "lost" a long time ago. I see many papers that to me at least, seem unscientific. Things like "lets take a program with no pruning, then add this strange thingsand show it works". Well, yes, but is it better than now decades old null search? Then other papers that say that "this not-really-very-clever trick solves this set of problem faster than doing nothing at all". Well, duh. Using problem sets to try and prove an idea makes a program stronger is a bit like picking the US President based on how fast he can build a doll house model of the White House. It seems to me the best programmers apply the scientific method better, and that is why they make stronger programs.

I hope what I wrote only offended people who wanted to be offended. :-)

Mark
Well, you're quite right at the very least.

There is also another effect imo.

When my son said his first word I was very excited, when he said his first 10 words I was pretty excited, the next hundred were funny, the next 1000 I almost took for granted, and the next x I did take for granted.

Although his progress was bigger all the time, my excitement became smaller all the time, until he learned something completely new.

It's just how the human mind works. When chessprograms went from 1200 to 1400 elo, it was bigger news than from 1400 to 1800

Tony
User avatar
sje
Posts: 4675
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2006 7:43 pm

Re: What does the future of computer chess look like to you?

Post by sje »

Much of the current situation can be described as saying that most of the low level fruit has been picked. Picked long ago, in fact.

When IBM financed Deep Blue and its matches vs Kasparov, it was quite rewarding for Kasparov and even more so for IBM. But Deep Blue never produced much in the way of results that could be used by others, and after Kasparov lost there was a big drop in interest of encouraging further CC work. So I think that CC would have been better off had these matches never taken place.

For too many CC researchers, and certainly including myself at times, there has been too much focus on playing strength as the sole metric of progress. This has led to a unfortunate, systemic neglect of the many AI sub-domains that could benefit from CC work.

Where are the programs that can explain, in natural language, the reasons used for a given move selection? Where are the programs that can build and rate models of opponent play? Or further, can replace a human chess coach? Where are the programs whose style of play can be adjusted interactively by a strong, non programmer player? Where are the programs that can effectively work in team mode with a strong human player? How about a program that can construct an opening repertoire for a human player of a given strength and style? Where are the programs that use a holographic or other non traditional processing model? Why isn't there a program that can generate chess problems as can a skilled human composer? How about a chess program designed to run on hundreds to thousands of eight bit microcontrollers working together that can be had for under a dollar each?

There are plenty of tough problems to be tackled, but few are solvable via either cut and paste or by incremental changes.

The old adage: If you have few or no failures, you're not trying hard enough.
Tord Romstad
Posts: 1808
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 9:19 pm
Location: Oslo, Norway

Re: What does the future of computer chess look like to you?

Post by Tord Romstad »

wgarvin wrote:What bothers me is that as computing resources continue to grow, computer-vs-human chess will basically cease to be interesting (if it hasn't already). Will the engine authors then continue to compete just to see who can make the strongest computer player?
Some authors probably will, but I think most of us are already beginning to lose our interest in computer vs computer games. All the top programs are so strong that further improvements in strength just seem irrelevant. From the perspective of an average human chess player, the difference between a 2700 rated and a 3200 rated program is completely insignificant. We can't even tell the difference without running automated comp vs comp games and examining the results.
I'm also curious, do you guys still expect to be doing computer chess a few years from now?
Probably not, but I may still be doing computer shogi or go. If I still do computer chess, my focus will certainly not be on improving the strength.
Are you interested in continuing, and pushing it as far as it can possibly go? How close do you feel we are to the goal, of making a chess engine "as strong as humans can make it" ?
I think we are still very far from that goal, but the goal is just not a very interesting one (IMHO, as always).

Tord
User avatar
mhull
Posts: 13447
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 9:02 pm
Location: Dallas, Texas
Full name: Matthew Hull

Re: What does the future of computer chess look like to you?

Post by mhull »

sje wrote:The old adage: If you have few or no failures, you're not trying hard enough.
I think I can speak for many people here in looking forward to Symbolic's first games with its cognitron switched on. :)
Matthew Hull
User avatar
sje
Posts: 4675
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2006 7:43 pm

Re: What does the future of computer chess look like to you?

Post by sje »

mhull wrote:
sje wrote:The old adage: If you have few or no failures, you're not trying hard enough.
I think I can speak for many people here in looking forward to Symbolic's first games with its cognitron switched on. :)
Hah! I've already seen some of them and they're all rather poor. When something good starts to happen, I'll post.
User avatar
Ovyron
Posts: 4556
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 4:30 am

Re: What does the future of computer chess look like to you?

Post by Ovyron »

sje wrote:Where are the programs whose style of play can be adjusted interactively by a strong, non programmer player?
Engines like Pro Deo and ChessMaster have several parameters to adjust the playing style.