FIDE World Chess Championship thread

[S.Taylor]

I respect them in several ways, but they should not be allowed to quit when they choose and still get paid.
this is not their match, they are just participants.

Short draws like this cheapen our sport.
A clause stipulating that draws cannot be agreed until after 30 moves have been played might be an idea worth considering for future matches.

Is a player meant to lose a WC match game just because he had to obey a rule to sidestep a draw by repetition which he was forced to play [but is not allowed to]?

do you think the draw was forced?
do you think the three moves was forced?
kgburcham

It COULD happen and in this case, Carlsen was explaining it clearly during the press conference, and it seems obvious that it wasn't what he wanted should have been necesary but that he didn't have very much choice. And sometimes it could be even more forced.

[Bloodbane]

In hindsight I see that calling you a patzer was a bit harsh, and I apologize for that. Still, even if you happened to beat me in a game how would this make your idea any better?

"he most likely is not a gamer and most likely a soft program user"

What does gamer mean in this case? A serious engine-assisted correspondence chess player? And what does a soft program user mean? A weak program user? A weak user who only uses programs? A weak user because he only uses computer-programs? The terms are a bit ambiguous.

Now about the game if you still wish to play it.

"Now your without engines comment.
This is a computer chess forum correct?
I know there are OTB players here for different reasons. '
I am here as a gamer and hardware freak. "

This means that you'd rather play with engines correct? For me it's the opposite as quite frankly I am terrible at engine-assisted games as I haven't still learned how to give suggestions to the engines effectively and therefore most of the time I am some sort of a mailman, as much as it pains me to admit.

[Kyodai]

Now in game 2 we see an interesting discussion in Caro-Kan.

Clearly prepared by Magnus and maybe even the first time he
plays 1.-c6 in a serious game. Anand has played this variation
before, but chose 14. Qe2 in the game from april vs Ding.
Now we see 14. 0-0-0 instead. Magnus replied with 14.-0-0

Rapid play and clearly preparation.

[Kyodai]

Finishing my brunch - making some coffee and....

game over... - they have already agreed on another draw

Chesswise this match is not so interesting (at least for me)

Think I will just check out the games afterwards..

Much more interesting chess - as mentioned - to be found

in the EU Team-ch...

[Laskos]

Betters seem very rational, with only small changes: 74%/26% for Carlsen.
Simulations give 76%/24% for Carlsen.

Little change, a small decrease for Carlsen, betters give now 72%/28%.
Simulations give 74%/26% for Carlsen.

[Kyodai]

Betters seem very rational, with only small changes: 74%/26% for Carlsen.
Simulations give 76%/24% for Carlsen.

Little change, a small decrease for Carlsen, betters give now 72%/28%.
Simulations give 74%/26% for Carlsen.

Wouldn't be surprised one bit if Anand wins this match...

[JuLieN]

[pgn][Event "FWCM 2013"]
[Site "Chennai"]
[Date "2013.11.10"]
[Round "2"]
[White "Anand, Viswanathan"]
[Black "Carlsen, Magnus"]
[Result "1/2-1/2"]
[ECO "B19"]
[WhiteElo "2775"]
[BlackElo "2870"]
[PlyCount "50"]
[EventDate "2013.??.??"]
[EventCountry "IND"]
[TimeControl "40/7200:20/3600:900+30"]

1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5 3. Nc3 dxe4 4. Nxe4 Bf5 5. Ng3 Bg6 6. h4 h6 7. Nf3 e6 8. Ne5 Bh7 9. Bd3 Bxd3 10. Qxd3 Nd7 11. f4 Bb4+ 12. c3 Be7 13. Bd2 Ngf6 14. O-O-O O-O 15. Ne4 Nxe4 16. Qxe4 Nxe5 17. fxe5 Qd5 18. Qxd5 cxd5 19. h5 b5 20. Rh3 a5 21. Rf1 Rac8 22. Rg3 Kh7 23. Rgf3 Kg8 24. Rg3 Kh7 25. Rgf3 Kg8 1/2-1/2[/pgn]
*yawn*

[Lyudmil Tsvetkov]

Wouldn't be surprised one bit if Anand wins this match...

No, Carlsen will win, but even if he does not, I would still consider him the world champion, just as I would have considered Fischer world champion back in 1972 had the match with Spassky failed to proceed.

[reflectionofpower]

Wouldn't be surprised one bit if Anand wins this match...

No, Carlsen will win, but even if he does not, I would still consider him the world champion, just as I would have considered Fischer world champion back in 1972 had the match with Spassky failed to proceed.

I respectfully disagree with you. If Carlsen does not win I do not consider him WC. He has never been a WC as Fischer was and I do agree with you that he should've been still WC but they did not treat him fairly.

[Ajedrecista]

Hello Kai:

Betters seem very rational, with only small changes: 74%/26% for Carlsen.
Simulations give 76%/24% for Carlsen.

Little change, a small decrease for Carlsen, betters give now 72%/28%.
Simulations give 74%/26% for Carlsen.

I modified a little my WCC simulator including white advantage (I hardcoded the value of 40 Elo) and a draw model D = 2.8*µ*(1 - µ), where µ is the expected score based in the Elo difference (that is, I suppose 70% of draws for two opponents of equal strength). Knowing that the first two games were draws, I more less obtain 74% - 26% if I assume a rating difference of 47 Elo and I give 30% of chances to Carlsen if the classical games end in a tie:

Code: Select all

White advantage:              40.0 Elo.
Supposed rating difference:   47.0 Elo.

            1000000 simulations:

Carlsen wins:               687579
Anand wins:                 138019
Drawn matches:              174402

Approximated elapsed time:    6.35 seconds.

68.6579% + 0.3*17.4402% = 73.98996% ~ 73.99% after 1e+6 simulations. If I suppose different rating differences:

Code: Select all

White advantage:              40.0 Elo.
Supposed rating difference:   45.0 Elo.

            1000000 simulations:

Carlsen wins:               675682
Anand wins:                 145705
Drawn matches:              178613

Approximated elapsed time:    5.91 seconds.

-------------------------------------------

White advantage:              40.0 Elo.
Supposed rating difference:   50.0 Elo.

            1000000 simulations:

Carlsen wins:               704772
Anand wins:                 127024
Drawn matches:              168204

Approximated elapsed time:    6.62 seconds.

-------------------------------------------

White advantage:              40.0 Elo.
Supposed rating difference:   55.0 Elo.

            1000000 simulations:

Carlsen wins:               733329
Anand wins:                 109512
Drawn matches:              157159

Approximated elapsed time:    6.28 seconds.

-------------------------------------------

White advantage:              40.0 Elo.
Supposed rating difference:   60.0 Elo.

            1000000 simulations:

Carlsen wins:               760165
Anand wins:                  93773
Drawn matches:              146062

Approximated elapsed time:    6.48 seconds.

-------------------------------------------

White advantage:              40.0 Elo.
Supposed rating difference:   65.0 Elo.

            1000000 simulations:

Carlsen wins:               786047
Anand wins:                  80003
Drawn matches:              133950

Approximated elapsed time:    6.07 seconds.

-------------------------------------------

White advantage:              40.0 Elo.
Supposed rating difference:   70.0 Elo.

            1000000 simulations:

Carlsen wins:               810017
Anand wins:                  67381
Drawn matches:              122602

Approximated elapsed time:    6.07 seconds.

-------------------------------------------

White advantage:              40.0 Elo.
Supposed rating difference:   75.0 Elo.

            1000000 simulations:

Carlsen wins:               832477
Anand wins:                  56579
Drawn matches:              110944

Approximated elapsed time:    5.98 seconds.

If I assume again that Carlsen has 30% of chances if the classical games end in a tie:

Code: Select all

Chances for Carlsen after 1e+6 simulations each time:

Supposed rating difference: 45 Elo --> 67.5682% + 0.3*17.8613% = 72.92659% ~ 72.93%.
Supposed rating difference: 50 Elo --> 70.4772% + 0.3*16.8204% = 75.52332% ~ 75.52%.
Supposed rating difference: 55 Elo --> 73.3329% + 0.3*15.7159% = 78.04767% ~ 78.05%.
Supposed rating difference: 60 Elo --> 76.0165% + 0.3*14.6062% = 80.39836% ~ 80.40%.
Supposed rating difference: 65 Elo --> 78.6047% + 0.3*13.3950% = 82.62320% ~ 82.62%.
Supposed rating difference: 70 Elo --> 81.0017% + 0.3*12.2602% = 84.67976% ~ 84.68%.
Supposed rating difference: 75 Elo --> 83.2477% + 0.3*11.0944% = 86.57602% ~ 86.58%.

Of course, the supposed rating difference is not the real difference extracted from FIDE list but different tries of estimation of rating difference for this single match of 12 games, counting home preparation, etc. My goal of run several supposed rating differences is to show how quickly percentages change with small variations of supposed rating differences.

I paste here the code:

Code: Select all

program WCC_2013_simulator 
implicit none 
integer(1),parameter::games_per_simulation=12 
integer(4),parameter::simulations=1000000
integer::i,n,half_points_Carlsen,half_points_Anand,finished,Carlsen_wins,Anand_wins,drawn_matches 
real(2)::D,L,random_number_for_result,Elo_difference,t0,t1,mu,supposed_difference,Elo_white_advantage
t0=cpu_clock@()
supposed_difference=4.5d1
Elo_white_advantage=4d1
Carlsen_wins=0;Anand_wins=0;drawn_matches=0 
do i=1,simulations
  half_points_Carlsen=2;half_points_Anand=2 ! Games 1 and 2 were draws.
  finished=0 
  do n=1+(half_points_Carlsen+half_points_Anand)/2,games_per_simulation/2
    random_number_for_result=random@()
    if ((5d-1*n) /= nint(5d-1*n)) then
      Elo_difference=supposed_difference+Elo_white_advantage ! Carlsen - Anand.
    else
      Elo_difference=supposed_difference-Elo_white_advantage ! Anand - Carlsen.
    end if
    mu=1d0/(1d0+1d1**(-2.5d-3*Elo_difference))
    D=2.8d0*mu*(1d0-mu) ! Maximum draw ratio = 70% for opponents of equal strength.
    L=1d0/(1d0+1d1**(2.5d-3*Elo_difference))-5d-1*D ! From Carlsen's POV. 
    if (random_number_for_result<L) then 
      half_points_Anand=half_points_Anand+2 
    else if (random_number_for_result<L+D) then 
      half_points_Carlsen=half_points_Carlsen+1 
      half_points_Anand=half_points_Anand+1 
    else 
      half_points_Carlsen=half_points_Carlsen+2 
    end if
  end do
  do n=1+games_per_simulation/2,games_per_simulation
    if (finished<1) then
      random_number_for_result=random@()
      if ((5d-1*n) /= nint(5d-1*n)) then
        Elo_difference=supposed_difference-Elo_white_advantage ! Anand - Carlsen.
      else
        Elo_difference=supposed_difference+Elo_white_advantage ! Carlsen - Anand.
      end if
      mu=1d0/(1d0+1d1**(-2.5d-3*Elo_difference))
      D=2.8d0*mu*(1d0-mu) ! Maximum draw ratio = 70% for opponents of equal strength.
      L=1d0/(1d0+1d1**(2.5d-3*Elo_difference))-5d-1*D ! From Carlsen's POV.
      if (random_number_for_result<L) then 
      half_points_Anand=half_points_Anand+2 
    else if (random_number_for_result<L+D) then 
      half_points_Carlsen=half_points_Carlsen+1 
      half_points_Anand=half_points_Anand+1 
    else 
      half_points_Carlsen=half_points_Carlsen+2 
    end if
      if (half_points_Carlsen>12) then 
        Carlsen_wins=Carlsen_wins+1 
        finished=1 
        continue 
      else if ((half_points_Carlsen>11) .and. (half_points_Anand>11)) then 
        drawn_matches=drawn_matches+1 
        finished=1 
        continue 
      else if (half_points_Anand>12) then 
        Anand_wins=Anand_wins+1 
        finished=1 
        continue 
      end if 
    end if 
  end do 
end do
write(*,'(A,F4.1,A)') 'White advantage:              ',Elo_white_advantage,' Elo.'
write(*,'(A,F6.1,A)') 'Supposed rating difference: ',supposed_difference,' Elo.'
write(*,*)
write(*,'(I19,A)') simulations,' simulations:' 
write(*,*) 
write(*,'(A,I19)') 'Carlsen wins:  ',Carlsen_wins 
write(*,'(A,I19)') 'Anand wins:    ',Anand_wins 
write(*,'(A,I19)') 'Drawn matches: ',drawn_matches 
write(*,*) 
t1=cpu_clock@() 
write(*,'(A,F7.2,A)') 'Approximated elapsed time: ',(t1-t0)/2.999d9,' seconds.' ! 2.999 GHz in my PC. 
end program WCC_2013_simulator

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.