The future of computer chess

Discussion of anything and everything relating to chess playing software and machines.

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chrisw
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Re: The future of computer chess

Post by chrisw »

syzygy wrote: Sun Oct 12, 2025 10:07 pm
chrisw wrote: Sun Oct 12, 2025 9:25 pmI fell you are deliberately ignoring RAM availability and the qualitative effect of massive speed. Not just faster, but new effects emerging (eg working up position knowledge through fast search, as opposed to trying to calculate mods to PST tables).
Single-core speed went up but not massively. From 2005 to 2020 probably less than 10x.
In 2005 I had 2GB of RAM. 512MB should be more than plenty for pre-NNUE SF, certainly in ultrabullet games (from the point of view of SF) against Fruit 2.1. I don't know if it is still escaping your attention that pre-NNUE SF crushes Fruit 2.1 at 1:1000 time odds on equal hardware?

(I think I wrote SF 15 earlier, but the 2020 test reported in the post was with SF-dev from April 29, 2020, i.e. a pre-NNUE development version between SF 11 and SF 12.)
Sure, I agree with you, the comparison to 6502 is nonsensical. They were unable to use multiply and forced into imprecision of 8 bits. The programs needed fitting to the very limited instruction set. Better to compare things written in relatively simple C, certainly pre 2005 with a non-NNUE SF forced to the constraints of 64K useable RAM for tables. SF will win probably, there’s been some software progress, but the bulk of the progress is hardware enabled, it wasn’t done before because it could NOT physically be done before.
64KB pre-2005? This is not a serious discussion, to put it friendly.
If this is too difficult for you, consider your own field. Imagine a future 10 man EGTB. Then add massive more RAM availability and build an 11 man table. Is that hardware or software or hardware availability progress?
This is not difficult at all. Progress in software has been absolutely massive. You can just run pre-NNUE SF on an old machine and see for yourself.

Of course this has been "enabled" by hardware, in particular:
1. The internet.
2. The possibility to run many fast games to evaluate changes.

Again, nobody here is arguing that programmers today are somehow more talented. Nobody is taking anything away from what the 1980s programmers achieved. Do not worry.

But that does not mean we should remain stuck in the 1980s, nor that the 1980s are the measure of everything. Why the 1980s and not the 1950s?

The point is simply that there has been undeniable, spectacular progress in software.
But of course on Talkchess you will find people denying it anyway.
Silly discussion imo. You're arguing everything is software, assisted by some hardware improvements. I'm arguing there's another category, improvements brought about BECAUSE the hardware became available. The RAM expensive lookup tables which are integral to SF search, for example. The history and statistic tables (again integral to SF search) worked up in the very fast search space and which are viable ONLY in the very fast search space. Not to mention NNUE, possible only with huge RAM and made viable by
512 bit parallelisation. So; if you want a software improvement old-new, you must for a fair test, just of algorithmic ideas, imo, operate the test at the old program search speeds with the large RAM and wide register dependant elements of the new program disabled.

Which decade to go back to? Well the OP's here were arguing 1980s and 6502, I'ld be inclined to disagree, 6502 instruction set is crippled and unsuitable. Possibly pre-internet 1990's, when us non mainframe people were working with 68000 asm or with early C and with limited RAM typical for home computers. Try forcing SF into that environment and absent the tuning. You'll find SF better, but you won't find much left after the forced code culling that wasn't there in parallel in those earlier engines.

Most SF improvement is down to the creation of the structured development and testing environment. In other words the progress was good management and overall plan not software. Any clown can do software, the real stars are those who built the circus tent.
syzygy
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Re: The future of computer chess

Post by syzygy »

chrisw wrote: Sun Oct 12, 2025 10:46 pmSilly discussion imo.
Really.
You're arguing everything is software, assisted by some hardware improvements.
Not at all. I am arguing against the notion that I have seen one forum member post about a dozen times, namely that there has been no progress in (chess engine) software since the 1980s. Did you read the discussion at all? Or just happy to disagree?

And again, pre-NNUE SF runs fine on a 2005 PC. But just go on ignoring that.
chrisw
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Re: The future of computer chess

Post by chrisw »

syzygy wrote: Sun Oct 12, 2025 11:30 pm
chrisw wrote: Sun Oct 12, 2025 10:46 pmSilly discussion imo.
Really.
You're arguing everything is software, assisted by some hardware improvements.
Not at all. I am arguing against the notion that I have seen one forum member post about a dozen times, namely that there has been no progress in (chess engine) software since the 1980s. Did you read the discussion at all? Or just happy to disagree?

And again, pre-NNUE SF runs fine on a 2005 PC. But just go on ignoring that.
Well, argue with him then. I'm NOT arguing zero software progress. Nor am I trying to anchor onto 2005. I am arguing there's a difference between algorithmic improvement and improvements-because-its-now-possible-because-hardware-enables-it.
The former has more merit because it is the result of original creative thinking, the latter has less merit because it is (usually) the result not of a new idea; but an old idea made (more) possible by hardware availability. For example EGTB-3 has been around forever, EGTB-6 only became possible because bigger better hardware.
I would prefer your discussion with dozen-times guy to distinguish between new concept and bigger-better-more old concept.

Yes, SF has improved. But not just by pure software operating in a vacuum.
syzygy
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Re: The future of computer chess

Post by syzygy »

chrisw wrote: Mon Oct 13, 2025 1:03 amI'm NOT arguing zero software progress.
So then you agreed with me all along. Excellent.
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Graham Banks
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Re: The future of computer chess

Post by Graham Banks »

Many engine authors are going back to see how much more they can extract from HCE.
gbanksnz at gmail.com
smatovic
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Re: The future of computer chess

Post by smatovic »

mclane wrote: Sun Oct 12, 2025 4:08 pm I would like to see how today's programs run on 6502 or z80a or Motorola M6809,
and if they are capable to beat Ed Schröders engines from
1991
https://www.schach-computer.info/wiki/i ... sto_Milano
and 1993
https://www.schach-computer.info/wiki/i ... igel_Short

If an algorithm progress has been made, it should be possible to put it into 64 KB engine size.
It it doesn't fit into 64 KB ROM, 8 KB RAM it is maybe not a software progress but a hardware progress.
I think this is an interesting question, and Ed and Uri answered it for you.

Estimated +100 Elo by selective search and +100 Elo by evaluation.
Rebel wrote: Sat Oct 11, 2025 8:17 pm
mclane wrote: Sat Oct 11, 2025 7:15 pm
1950 ELO Ed Schroeder was able to create out of the 6502 5 mhz 8 bit cpu 64/8 kb rom/ram.

How much can YOU do with today’s algorithms??
100 elo would be doable with nowadays knowledge, search based, I think.

What was not invented in those days :

1. reductions
2. LMR
3. Futility pruning
4. Null move

Should be enough for 100 elo.

What can't :

5. Hash tables with only 8Kb ram, maybe a tiny one for the first 3 plies only.

All in all not much elo progression.

BECAUSE, the real strength of : 1. reductions, 2. LMR, 3. Futility pruning, 4. Null move, 5. Hash tables etc. comes from deeper depths (thus computer speed) and doing only 500-600 nodes per second on 5Hmz is an obstacle for progress.
Uri Blass wrote: Sat Oct 11, 2025 8:23 pm
Rebel wrote: Sat Oct 11, 2025 8:17 pm
mclane wrote: Sat Oct 11, 2025 7:15 pm
1950 ELO Ed Schroeder was able to create out of the 6502 5 mhz 8 bit cpu 64/8 kb rom/ram.

How much can YOU do with today’s algorithms??
100 elo would be doable with nowadays knowledge, search based, I think.

What was not invented in those days :

1. reductions
2. LMR
3. Futility pruning
4. Null move

Should be enough for 100 elo.

What can't :

5. Hash tables with only 8Kb ram, maybe a tiny one for the first 3 plies only.

All in all not much elo progression.

BECAUSE, the real strength of : 1. reductions, 2. LMR, 3. Futility pruning, 4. Null move, 5. Hash tables etc. comes from deeper depths (thus computer speed) and doing only 500-600 nodes per second on 5Hmz is an obstacle for progress.
I think you forget that part of the strength improvement can be from a better evaluation so I guess at least 200 elo improvement.
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mclane
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Re: The future of computer chess

Post by mclane »

The future is the past:

What seems like a fairy tale today may be reality tomorrow.
Here we have a fairy tale of the day after tomorrow....
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Rebel
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Re: The future of computer chess

Post by Rebel »

smatovic wrote: Mon Oct 13, 2025 4:44 am I think this is an interesting question, and Ed and Uri answered it for you.

Estimated +100 Elo by selective search and +100 Elo by evaluation.
To fully satisfy Thorsten's question (since he demands a 6502 5Mhz comparison doing (in my case) about 500-600 nodes per second) is a match based on nodes.
90% of coding is debugging, the other 10% is writing bugs.
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towforce
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Re: The future of computer chess

Post by towforce »

Rebel wrote: Mon Oct 13, 2025 10:21 amTo fully satisfy Thorsten's question (since he demands a 6502 5Mhz comparison doing (in my case) about 500-600 nodes per second) is a match based on nodes.

That's what Thorsten wants. What I, and many others want, is...

Nodes = Legal Moves (1 ply)

The engine evaluates each legal move in the position, but is forbidden from generating a game tree, or otherwise generating any forward moves from the current position. It's then all about what the engine knows about chess, and nothing else whatsoever.

Software engineers are always going to love recursion more than they love a calculator - but a calculator is the true demonstration of subject mastery: you ask, you get the correct answer. No messing.
Human chess is partly about tactics and strategy, but mostly about memory
Jouni
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Re: The future of computer chess

Post by Jouni »

If you run Stockfish by high end computer like:

906.449.028 nps 2x AMD EPYC 9965 768Gb DDR5 6400 768threads

how much You get vs standard 8/16 core home PC? May be all/most games still draw with neutral book!
Jouni