Karlo Bala wrote:White indeed has big advantage. 3 tempi in opening worth about a pawn, and white has almost full 3 tempi more. However, playing both Nc3 and Nf3 at same time, is terribly wrong because position stay closed. White should play for big center and try to open position at right moment.
It all sounds well on paper. But let me ask you something. How many super strong GMs (above 2700 rating) could be able to draw as white against Rybka or SF or FB in this position? So the game starts, and the engine plays these 2 "crazy" moves as black. So white has no preparation.
I'll give you a wild guess 1 in 5 max.
If engine is supported with a good book for the given position, not even 1 in 10 would make a single draw.
Karlo Bala wrote:White indeed has big advantage. 3 tempi in opening worth about a pawn, and white has almost full 3 tempi more. However, playing both Nc3 and Nf3 at same time, is terribly wrong because position stay closed. White should play for big center and try to open position at right moment.
It all sounds well on paper. But let me ask you something. How many super strong GMs (above 2700 rating) could be able to draw as white against Rybka or SF or FB in this position? So the game starts, and the engine plays these 2 "crazy" moves as black. So white has no preparation.
I'll give you a wild guess 1 in 5 max.
If engine is supported with a good book for the given position, not even 1 in 10 would make a single draw.
You are probably right about expected result, but I don't see a connection between your statement and objective evaluation of position and strategic plan.
Milos wrote:"But let me ask you something. How many super strong GMs (above 2700 rating) could be able to draw as white against Rybka or SF or FB in this position? So the game starts, and the engine plays these 2 "crazy" moves as black. So white has no preparation.
I'll give you a wild guess 1 in 5 max.
If engine is supported with a good book for the given position, not even 1 in 10 would make a single draw.
"
I don't agree with this at all. Our experience with the matches between Rybka and top GMs, especially the Milov match (who was 2705 at the time), indicate that a 2700 GM is favored at odds of the Exchange or the f7 pawn, but would probably be about evenly matched at odds of the c7 pawn. All of these matches were played with a handicap opening book for the computer. The handicap proposed here is about two moves; White gets to play good moves and it's his turn, but the two slightly useful Black moves should roughly offset White's being on move. In the opening two moves is about the same handicap as the c2 pawn. So this handicap favors the computer over a 2700 GM only by about the difference between having White or having Black in normal chess, roughly ten percentage points. So I would put the computer at just a 60-40 favorite.
As for the initial question of whether the position is won or drawn, I would bet on "won", because I believe that the handicap of the c2 pawn is enough to give Black a won game, and this handicap seems about as big. But please don't ask me to bet, as we have no way to settle the bet!
lkaufman wrote:As for the initial question of whether the position is won or drawn, I would bet on "won", because I believe that the handicap of the c2 pawn is enough to give Black a won game, and this handicap seems about as big.
So, you would play a match with the given position, having White and removing Pc2, assessing the outcome of the match around 50%, right?
Almost right. It's not quite the same because we should also get the advantage of the White pieces, but the c2 handicap already stipulates that. So to be consistent I would rate White as a slight underdog (about like Black in normal chess) if he is missing c2 but Black must start with ...h6 and ...a5 as first two moves.
lkaufman wrote:I don't agree with this at all. Our experience with the matches between Rybka and top GMs, especially the Milov match (who was 2705 at the time), indicate that a 2700 GM is favored at odds of the Exchange or the f7 pawn, but would probably be about evenly matched at odds of the c7 pawn. All of these matches were played with a handicap opening book for the computer. The handicap proposed here is about two moves; White gets to play good moves and it's his turn, but the two slightly useful Black moves should roughly offset White's being on move. In the opening two moves is about the same handicap as the c2 pawn. So this handicap favors the computer over a 2700 GM only by about the difference between having White or having Black in normal chess, roughly ten percentage points. So I would put the computer at just a 60-40 favorite.
As for the initial question of whether the position is won or drawn, I would bet on "won", because I believe that the handicap of the c2 pawn is enough to give Black a won game, and this handicap seems about as big. But please don't ask me to bet, as we have no way to settle the bet!
Larry there is a big difference that you are not accounting for. In match with Milov, Milov knew in advance what kind of handicap/advantage he would face. In the hypothetical match in this situation a strong GM would not know what the computer would play in advance and after first two moves it would be a completely different game since GM would not have a game plan prepared in advance. I would say preparation is far more than 10 percentage points.
Sorry I don't see any difference. In both cases the human knew or knows the initial position of the handicap (i.e. material removed or pawns pushed to the given squares) and nothing else. Milov did not know the contents of Rybka's handicap opening book, and in fact was surprised in the opening several times. So what is your point?
lkaufman wrote:Sorry I don't see any difference. In both cases the human knew or knows the initial position of the handicap (i.e. material removed or pawns pushed to the given squares) and nothing else. Milov did not know the contents of Rybka's handicap opening book, and in fact was surprised in the opening several times. So what is your point?
The game starts normally and black plays weak moves (h6...a5) suddenly when it's his turn. So white does not know in advance that black will play these moves and that he will have the "advantage" and that this particular opening will be played.
