Dann Corbit wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:13 am
I think if there is a draw, it will have an attraction (like a gift pawn) and then a cyclic draw. Or perhaps a very deep tactic. Most likely, the Grob is a loss, but I am not entirely convinced yet.
I had about a million positions, which I whittled down to 10K interesting ones by using SQL queries.
I analyzed the 10K positions to 26 plies and I am now analyzing all of the positions that were 1.5 pawns or less to 36 plies (about 7K, IIRC)
I started with a much smaller group and did a mass analysis. I took the top moves from the most important positions ( about 1,500 of them) and did analysis to 35 ply. This and old-fashion analysis to much greater depth on certain lines. With my prior and current analysis I'm even more convinced it's dead lost. But if you find a line you think has possibilities I'd like to see it.
Regards,
Zenmastur
Only 2 defining forces have ever offered to die for you.....Jesus Christ and the American Soldier. One died for your soul, the other for your freedom.
lkaufman wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:41 pm
The threshold for a won position is probably about 70% or perhaps slightly higher, 71 or 72%, based on everything I've observed. For 1 g4?, it is about 68% for Black with 1...d5, so probably not a forced win although close enough to the line to leave that as a possibility.
Leelenstein 13 already is below 30% winrate after g4 d5.
lkaufman wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:41 pm
The threshold for a won position is probably about 70% or perhaps slightly higher, 71 or 72%, based on everything I've observed. For 1 g4?, it is about 68% for Black with 1...d5, so probably not a forced win although close enough to the line to leave that as a possibility.
jjoshua2 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:44 am
So winrate dropped 2.74% or 16.8 elo per %. So linearly, we need 436 elo stronger engine/search to solve to 0% winrate
By win rate under 30%, I guess you mean draw rate about 70%, so total score under 65%? (I assume Larry's 72% mark is total score.)
What is Leela's percent translated to centi-pawns? My claim was that a -1.60 cp score was unstoppable but I have no idea what is its percentage equivalence.