Dann Corbit wrote: ↑Wed Oct 23, 2019 12:28 amIt seems very likely that the whole line is nearly forced up to this point.
And this is the reason I can guarantee a draw in this line and not, say, in the French. In the French (if I was black) I have no idea what Harvey would play, there's just too many lines and I can't check them all, I could just miss a key move and then be losing, and I wouldn't know it until it's too late. In the Grob, Harvey's advantage is very fragile, one suboptimal move and I can trivially draw him from there, which means I only need to check his "nearly forced" moves.
One misstep from white and it loses, but one misstep from Harvey and I get an easy draw.
Your beliefs create your reality, so be careful what you wish for.
Dann Corbit wrote: ↑Wed Oct 23, 2019 12:28 am
This is the most interesting of all, because the move that appears best (g5) is rarely played because h3 and Bg2 are much more popular, and this position occurs a lot in Grob games:
This makes sense. People play the Grob more often than more objectively correct moves like 1. Na3 because there is some poison for black players who mindlessly play natural moves like d5+e5+Nf6.
The pawn on g4 can wait for a knight to go to f6 and then white will chase it away with g5.
The bishop goes to g4 quickly because there's quick counterplay against white's d5 pawn and b7 pawn with Bg2, c4, and Qb3.
White probably is actually lost if they play the Grob in the way humans normally play it, but also white will score some quick wins against opponents who play the opening on autopilot, which is not the case for moves like 1. Na3. (I do not have a strong opinion about whether white is lost in the Grob in general because I haven't spent enough time on it to be confident)
All of this goes out the window if you're just trying to prove if white can hold after 1. g4, though.
Last edited by todd on Wed Oct 23, 2019 1:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
I have the latest position also, but it has not had a response yet, so I won't post the analysis.
The only actual disagreement is this position, which is only analyzed to 40 plies in my case. The move played in this thread is Ne7, but I have Nc6 in my database.
[d]rnbqkbnr/pp3ppp/8/2pp2P1/3p4/5N2/PPP1PPBP/RNBQK2R b KQkq - acd 40; acs 1136; bm Nc6; c3 "Ne7"; ce 134; pm Nc6; pv Nc6 c3 dxc3 Nxc3 Be6 Bf4 d4 Ne4 Bd5 Ne5 Nge7 O-O Nxe5 Bxe5 Nc6 Bf4 Bxe4 Bxe4 Bd6 Qc2 Bxf4 Bxc6+ Kf8 Bxb7 Qxg5+ Bg2 Rd8 Rad1 Bd6 e3 g6 exd4 cxd4 Qe4 Kg7 Rxd4 Rhe8 Qh4 Qxh4 Rxh4 Re2 Ra4 Bc5 b4 Bb6 Bf3 Red2 Kg2 Re8 b5 Re5 h4 Rxb5;
Because of transpositions, your post certainly suggests how White should proceed. Of course, White is simply conveying computer moves anyway, but maybe you should refrain from posting PVs at all.
Still following Stockfish-dev's main line, with a current evaluation of -1.38 (though only at depth 50). Still waiting for something other than a Stockfish move!
White is still hovering around 40% in Lc0 like scoring, which in my experience , white has little chance of winning, but still fairly decent chances of drawing ( close to 80% ) . All it takes is one or two subpar moves by black and the game will be drawn. Likewise one or two subpar moves by white ,and black will win.
I've been discussing these in real life, and people do think white has winning chances, but at any point black could go into "draw mode" and draw at will, so Harvey has a draw in hand and can play it out if he wishes, though there's no reason to go for it, as I haven't seen a single line where black's in danger.
Ovyron wrote: ↑Wed Oct 23, 2019 5:44 am
I've been discussing these in real life, and people do think white has winning chances, but at any point black could go into "draw mode" and draw at will, so Harvey has a draw in hand and can play it out if he wishes, though there's no reason to go for it, as I haven't seen a single line where black's in danger.
Agreed, White does have some winning chances - just not very much. Personally, when I'm down to 40% , I'm looking for the draw ( perpetual, 3 fold repetition or known 7 men drawn endgame) . If I have 60% , I'm looking and going for the win - its like being the Lion, you might get a win 1 out of 5 times (successful kill) , but if you are looking for the draw, you will not get the win ( unless the opponent absolutely blunders).
MikeB wrote: ↑Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:27 amAgreed, White does have some winning chances - just not very much. Personally, when I'm down to 40% , I'm looking for the draw ( perpetual, 3 fold repetition or known 7 men drawn endgame) . If I have 60% , I'm looking and going for the win - its like being the Lion, you might get a win 1 out of 5 times (successful kill) , but if you are looking for the draw, you will not get the win ( unless the opponent absolutely blunders).
As I've said in other threads, a "60%" doesn't say anything, you have to talk about 3 percentages %-chance white wins, %-chance black wins and %-chance game is drawn. Though you only need 2 percentages, because the third one is just 100 with the the other two subtracted, a 40% of nothing tells us nothing.
