Code: Select all
Opening Book : books\elo2700.bin
Positions : 716.101
Book Weight Score Depth Learn Total Won Draw Loss Perc WD WDL
e2e4 41.93% 0 0 0 6456 1833 3415 1208 54.84% 41.92% 30.27%
d2d4 37.19% 0 0 0 5727 1607 3067 1053 54.83% 37.19% 27.09%
g1f3 12.23% 0 0 0 1899 567 932 400 54.39% 12.23% 8.22%
c2c4 7.00% 0 0 0 1092 314 555 223 54.16% 7.00% 4.78%
b2b3 0.78% 0 0 0 120 45 40 35 54.16% 0.77% 0.39%
g2g3 0.56% 0 0 0 72 35 25 12 65.97% 0.56% 0.46%
f2f4 0.11% 0 0 0 14 7 5 2 67.85% 0.11% 0.09%
b1c3 0.10% 0 0 0 19 5 6 8 42.10% 0.09% 0.00%
d2d3 0.03% 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 100.00% 0.03% 0.03%
b2b4 0.02% 0 0 0 3 2 0 1 66.66% 0.02% 0.01%
a2a3 0.01% 0 0 0 3 1 1 1 50.00% 0.01% 0.00%
a2a4 0.01% 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 100.00% 0.01% 0.01%
Totals 15409 4420 8046 2943
We then for e2e4 get (1833*2+3415)*100 / (4420*2+8046) = 708.100 / 16.886 = 41.93% (see Weight & WD)
While this works reasonable well in practice the numbers of losses is not part of the calculation and actually it should. I have been trying various formulas (see WDL) including the number of losses but nothing is satisfying so far.
Also, the moves c4,Nf3 both score 54% equal to e4 and d4 with a considerable number of games played and yet their weight percentage is poorly (12.23%, 7.00%). 1.g3 (72 games and 65.97%) is reduced to 0.56%. While this is not a problem on the first move I wouldn't like to see a move with 65% reduced that way on the 5th move. The weight formula strongly relies on the number of games, perhaps too much.
For a better weight formula the extra ingredient percentage (maybe) could help.
I wonder if there is something better else I leave things as they are.