win-chance for each root move
Moderators: hgm, Rebel, chrisw
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- Posts: 1871
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Re: win-chance for each root move
Why not run some engine testing on this with the first move forced by book ?
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- Posts: 1871
- Joined: Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:28 pm
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Re: win-chance for each root move
ok I'm running something right now, which tool will I use to extract the required statistics (win/draw/loss by first move) from the generated big pgn ?
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- Posts: 1871
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- Location: France
Re: win-chance for each root move
the dirty way :
For now I have this (with only like a thousand games ...)
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../convert/pgn-extract/pgn-extract test.pgn -w40000 2>&1 | sed 's/^1\. \(...\).*}/\1/g' | grep -v "\[" | grep "1-0\|0-1\|1/2-1/2" | sort | uniq -c
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34 a3 0-1
25 a3 1-0
8 a3 1/2-1/2
27 a4 0-1
30 a4 1-0
9 a4 1/2-1/2
34 b3 0-1
24 b3 1-0
9 b3 1/2-1/2
26 b4 0-1
29 b4 1-0
11 b4 1/2-1/2
22 c3 0-1
30 c3 1-0
14 c3 1/2-1/2
33 c4 0-1
20 c4 1-0
13 c4 1/2-1/2
33 d3 0-1
20 d3 1-0
13 d3 1/2-1/2
28 d4 0-1
27 d4 1-0
11 d4 1/2-1/2
22 e3 0-1
36 e3 1-0
8 e3 1/2-1/2
31 e4 0-1
29 e4 1-0
6 e4 1/2-1/2
23 f3 0-1
33 f3 1-0
10 f3 1/2-1/2
24 f4 0-1
33 f4 1-0
9 f4 1/2-1/2
25 g3 0-1
27 g3 1-0
14 g3 1/2-1/2
38 g4 0-1
25 g4 1-0
3 g4 1/2-1/2
40 h3 0-1
15 h3 1-0
11 h3 1/2-1/2
37 h4 0-1
21 h4 1-0
8 h4 1/2-1/2
19 Na3 0-1
35 Na3 1-0
12 Na3 1/2-1/2
21 Nc3 0-1
34 Nc3 1-0
11 Nc3 1/2-1/2
16 Nf3 0-1
38 Nf3 1-0
12 Nf3 1/2-1/2
45 Nh3 0-1
16 Nh3 1-0
5 Nh3 1/2-1/2
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- Posts: 4833
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Re: win-chance for each root move
Took the top10-60min.pgn at http://www.fastgm.de/downloads.html, add elo in the game and view it in HCE (Hiarcs Chess Explorer).
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- Posts: 1871
- Joined: Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:28 pm
- Location: France
Re: win-chance for each root move
Anything played by human is too much biased for the question. Nobody would play stupid move unless he is +400 elo, and thus will win. Only engine/engine games can answer the question.
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- Posts: 1871
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Re: win-chance for each root move
3700 games played now
Some results seems strange for now, this is of course not yet valid from a statistical point of view I guess ...
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Rank Name Elo +/- Games Score Draws
1 Fridolin310 43 15 1851 56.1% 16.2%
2 GreKo-Linux-64 39 15 1851 55.6% 14.7%
3 igel-x64_popcnt -31 15 1850 45.6% 15.8%
4 minic_0.55_linux_x64_avx2_bmi2 -52 14 1850 42.6% 17.9%
3701 of 60000 games finished.
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a3 white 33 % black 51 % draw 15 %
a4 white 50 % black 29 % draw 19 %
b3 white 35 % black 46 % draw 17 %
b4 white 39 % black 44 % draw 16 %
c3 white 43 % black 38 % draw 18 %
c4 white 35 % black 47 % draw 16 %
d3 white 29 % black 52 % draw 17 %
d4 white 31 % black 47 % draw 20 %
e3 white 59 % black 26 % draw 14 %
e4 white 47 % black 36 % draw 15 %
f3 white 48 % black 38 % draw 13 %
f4 white 46 % black 37 % draw 16 %
g3 white 36 % black 47 % draw 16 %
g4 white 33 % black 57 % draw 8 %
h3 white 23 % black 63 % draw 13 %
h4 white 32 % black 53 % draw 14 %
Na3 white 44 % black 36 % draw 19 %
Nc3 white 53 % black 31 % draw 15 %
Nf3 white 51 % black 30 % draw 18 %
Nh3 white 24 % black 59 % draw 16 %
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- Posts: 1871
- Joined: Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:28 pm
- Location: France
Re: win-chance for each root move
Maybe polluted by Minic book ... I run it again from the beginning to ensure no book is used ...
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- Posts: 1871
- Joined: Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:28 pm
- Location: France
Re: win-chance for each root move
5000 games, no book
Code: Select all
a3 271 games, white 36 % black 50 % draw 12 %
a4 271 games, white 59 % black 20 % draw 20 %
b3 271 games, white 21 % black 57 % draw 21 %
b4 271 games, white 30 % black 50 % draw 18 %
c3 271 games, white 44 % black 39 % draw 15 %
c4 271 games, white 47 % black 36 % draw 15 %
d3 271 games, white 32 % black 46 % draw 20 %
d4 271 games, white 37 % black 41 % draw 20 %
e3 271 games, white 49 % black 37 % draw 13 %
e4 271 games, white 60 % black 24 % draw 15 %
f3 271 games, white 45 % black 39 % draw 15 %
f4 271 games, white 57 % black 22 % draw 19 %
g3 271 games, white 47 % black 37 % draw 15 %
g4 271 games, white 43 % black 43 % draw 12 %
h3 271 games, white 18 % black 60 % draw 21 %
h4 271 games, white 23 % black 61 % draw 15 %
Na3 271 games, white 43 % black 39 % draw 16 %
Nc3 271 games, white 67 % black 21 % draw 11 %
Nf3 270 games, white 52 % black 33 % draw 14 %
Nh3 270 games, white 20 % black 67 % draw 12 %
total games 5418
white wins 2272 41 %
black wins 2254 41 %
draws 892 16 %
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- Posts: 1871
- Joined: Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:28 pm
- Location: France
Re: win-chance for each root move
there is bias with engine also ... they are trained to play a specific way ...
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- Posts: 1871
- Joined: Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:28 pm
- Location: France