chrisw wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:23 am
40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%
...
It seems Chiron has improved quite a lot since its last release!
Of course it's a long time too (since 2017/01).
chrisw wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:23 am
40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%
About the second table. First, you seem to put Ethereal and Chiron too high. Second, generally, that in 56 games each, the winner is not one of the big three, seems to be a very slim possibility, much smaller than 8%. Third, Stockfish to win seems in above 70% to me. It has now "contempt" and is not underperforming in these round-robins with weaker engines. Gut feeling: SF say 72%, Kom 15%, Hou (if not updated) 11%, rest 2%.
And why not going further: SF above 90% to win the TCEC 13 (if Hou is not updated).
chrisw wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:23 am
40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%
...
It seems Chiron has improved quite a lot since its last release!
Of course it's a long time too (since 2017/01).
Yes, I noted the big increases made in the years before that and figured, since it was entered into WCCC and it has a new serial number for TCEC that it had been seriously worked on this year, and took a guess at bumping its alleged published elo by 90 pts
chrisw wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:23 am
40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%
About the second table. First, you seem to put Ethereal and Chiron too high. Second, generally, that in 56 games each, the winner is not one of the big three, seems to be a very slim possibility, much smaller than 8%. Third, Stockfish to win seems in above 70% to me. It has now "contempt" and is not underperforming in these round-robins with weaker engines. Gut feeling: SF say 72%, Kom 15%, Hou (if not updated) 11%, rest 2%.
And why not going further: SF above 90% to win the TCEC 13 (if Hou is not updated).
Could be. Ethereal elo is bumped by the successes so far, and I took a punt on Chiron having been worked on and made annual progress as it made in last years.
The other Premier league figures are just CCRL-grabbed IIRC, so will take a closer look at those next few days.