michiguel wrote:Laskos wrote:stavros wrote:after the latest stf6 komodo 8 etc, i wonder how much elo more can be achieve via programming,on the same hardware of course.
100,200,300 elo more? it could be a poll but anyway just a "food of thought"
my personal feeling not more than 100 elo. more? it would be a miracle
dont forget pls on the same hardware! lets say a medium pc 2 core etc..
Assuming, after many extrapolations, that perfect engine has ~4,500 Elo points, till chess is solved, 600 points will be gained by software, 600 by hardware, so my bet would be 600.
At that point, Elo won't be an accurate measure of strength anymore because of the draw rates. Maybe Wilos will have to be used extending the scale way much longer.
Miguel
I think that elo can never be accurate and even today it is dependent on the pool of players.
It may be interesting if somebody try the following experiment:
1)Start with the random player define the elo of it as 0.
2)Do a match of 100,000 games between the random player and the player who play random moves only in 99% of the cases and in 1% engine X's move at some small depth like depth 3.
calculate rating for the new engine rating based on the match.
3)You have something like
random100%=0
random99%=100(random99% may be 99% random moves and 1% gaviota's move at depth 3)
Continue in the same way
and calculate rating for random98% based on a match of 100,000 games against random99% and continue in this way until you get to random0%
that is the rating of your engine at depth 3.
Do the same experiement to calculate rating of your engine at depth 10.
My intuition is that the difference between depth 3 and depth 10 will be clearly smaller than the real rating difference between them with a normal pool of players.