http://glass.2.ag/tools.php
if you enter the results of a match between two engines (wins, draws, losses) it will output:
- number of games
- score
- score-difference
- draw-ratio
- win-ratio
- elo
- los
Edmund
Moderators: hgm, Rebel, chrisw
Thanks Edmund,Edmund wrote:I just put a little chess statistics tool page online. Maybe it is of use to someone.
http://glass.2.ag/tools.php
if you enter the results of a match between two engines (wins, draws, losses) it will output:
- number of games
- score
- score-difference
- draw-ratio
- win-ratio
- elo
- los
regards,
Edmund
No, LOS doesn't depend on number of draws. Error intervals depend, yes, but not LOS. I can give you a short formula for LOS.Milos wrote:Moreover basing LOS just on difference but not including draws is simply wrong.
For example scores 1/10000/0 and 1/0/0 cannot have the same LOS.
This los calculation uses an normal distribution to approximate the win distribution. The otherwise needed multinominal distribution would take ages to calculate an exact value for your request with > 10000 games.Milos wrote:Moreover basing LOS just on difference but not including draws is simply wrong.
For example scores 1/10000/0 and 1/0/0 cannot have the same LOS.
It shouldn't be considered for LOS.Edmund wrote: you will notice that the draw rate is very much considered.
Right, thanks for the hint. I fixed it now. However I notice that the output might still be a couple of 0.01 percent of the correct result as it seems PHP makes some rounding errors.michiguel wrote:Thanks Edmund,Edmund wrote:I just put a little chess statistics tool page online. Maybe it is of use to someone.
http://glass.2.ag/tools.php
if you enter the results of a match between two engines (wins, draws, losses) it will output:
- number of games
- score
- score-difference
- draw-ratio
- win-ratio
- elo
- los
regards,
Edmund
There is something funny with certain numbers. I do not know whether it's the formula or something else.
For instance, for a w/d/l of 1000/500/1020 you get a negative LOS, which has no physical meaning.
1000/500/1000 gives 50%, but X/Y/Z and Z/Y/X should give numbers that are symmetrical (LOS1 should be the same as 100-LOS2) and that does not happen.
Miguel
Of course you use normal distribution approximation. There is nothing wrong in using it per se.Edmund wrote:This los calculation uses an normal distribution to approximate the win distribution. The otherwise needed multinominal distribution would take ages to calculate an exact value for your request with > 10000 games.
Seams you have a different definition of LOS. How are you defining it then?Laskos wrote:It shouldn't be considered for LOS.Edmund wrote: you will notice that the draw rate is very much considered.
(your example is wrong, look at the number of losses).
Likelihood of Success that one engine is better than another. It does not depend on the number of draws. Error intervals yes, depend. If you want a precise formula for LOS, I can give it.Milos wrote:Seams you have a different definition of LOS. How are you defining it then?Laskos wrote:It shouldn't be considered for LOS.Edmund wrote: you will notice that the draw rate is very much considered.
(your example is wrong, look at the number of losses).
P.S. Table formulas like ones based on just difference in wins/losses are simply wrong.