I assume it has to be fit to something initially? IE human vs human games?Sven Schüle wrote:No, the draw rate is simply not part of the underlying theoretical model of the Elo rating system as it is used by the FIDE. Bayeselo uses a different model that takes the probabilities for win, draw, and loss into account as well as other factors like colors. The table in the FIDE handbook lists percentage expectancy values mapped to rating differences (and vice versa) based on the normal distribution, no draw rate is involved there.bob wrote:That has an assumed draw rate however, which might not be correct for your test games...cdani wrote:I just taked this 140 from FIDE (in fact 141):bob wrote:What draw rate do you assume for your 69 = 140?
https://www.fide.com/fide/handbook.html ... ew=article
Or maybe I am simply wrong. But most predictive models like that come from fitting an approximation to empirical data somewhere along the way.