You assign a wrong value for LOS in your code box: I calculate k = |0.5 - score|/sigma and then I calculate the area below the normal distribution density function between -infinity and k; I have to do it approximating the integral with the Simpson's composite rule because I do not know other form to do it in Fortran.
I have other programme for calculate error bars and LOS values:
Code: Select all
LOS_and_Elo_uncertainties_calculator, ® 2012.
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Calculation of Elo uncertainties in a match between two engines:
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(The input and output data is referred to the first engine).
Please write down non-negative integers.
Maximum number of games supported: 2147483647.
Write down the number of wins (up to 1825361100):
658
Write down the number of loses (up to 1825361100):
696
Write down the number of draws (up to 2147482293):
960
Write down the confidence level (in percentage) between 65% and 99.9% (it will be rounded up to 0.01%):
95
Write down the clock rate of the CPU (in GHz), only for timing the elapsed time of the calculations:
3
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Elo interval for 95.00 % confidence:
Elo rating difference: -5.71 Elo
Lower rating difference: -16.54 Elo
Upper rating difference: 5.12 Elo
Lower bound uncertainty: -10.84 Elo
Upper bound uncertainty: 10.83 Elo
Average error: +/- 10.83 Elo
K = (average error)*[sqrt(n)] = 521.08
Elo interval: ] -16.54, 5.12[
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Number of games of the match: 2314
Score: 49.18 %
Elo rating difference: -5.71 Elo
Draw ratio: 41.49 %
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Standard deviation: 1.5580 % of the points of the match.
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Error bars were calculated with two-sided tests; values are rounded up to 0.01 Elo, or 0.01 in the case of K.
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Calculation of likelihood of superiority (LOS) in a one-sided test:
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LOS (taking into account draws) is always calculated, if possible.
LOS (not taking into account draws) is only calculated if wins + loses < 16001.
LOS (average value) is calculated only when LOS (not taking into account draws) is calculated.
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LOS: 15.08 % (taking into account draws).
LOS: 15.10 % (not taking into account draws).
LOS: 15.09 % (average value).
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These values of LOS are rounded up to 0.01%
End of the calculations. Approximated elapsed time: 74 ms.
Thanks for using LOS_and_Elo_uncertainties_calculator. Press Enter to exit.
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I will try to compute LOS tables from 2000 games to 100000 games in steps of 1000 games (I mean: 2000, 3000, 4000, ..., 99000 and 100000 games) fixing the draw ratio to 32%, just as CPW tables. Please do not forget that they are only (good) approximations of the trinomial distribution.
The generation of these 99 tables will take a while (maybe a few hours), so please be patient. I have the intention of uploading the notepads here for everyone.
Regarding your last post, I do not have experience in engine testing, so all my efforts to help you will be useless.
Thank you very much for your confidence!Rebel wrote:Is it possible for you to email those larger tables? I like to put them on my website as a reference.
Regards from Spain.
Ajedrecista.
