LCZero progress

majortom · Post by **majortom** » Sun May 27, 2018 9:39 am

LC0 344_283aca47 with 750 000 playouts per move vs. Stockfish 130418 with depth=30 from initial position:

Broadcast

majortom · Post by **majortom** » Sun May 27, 2018 12:06 pm

majortom wrote: ↑Sun May 27, 2018 9:39 am LC0 344_283aca47 with 750 000 playouts per move vs. Stockfish 130418 with depth=30 from initial position:

Broadcast

Last LC0 move time - 7935557 ms > 132 min

majortom · Post by **majortom** » Sun May 27, 2018 1:55 pm

Broadcast restarted:
https://lichess.org/broadcast/lc0-id344 ... 0/W32Ggtlr

majortom · Post by **majortom** » Mon May 28, 2018 10:00 am

Code: Select all

   # PLAYER                   :  RATING  ERROR  POINTS  PLAYED   (%)
   1 LC0 330_de60388a N714    :   103.0   35.6   128.5     200    64
   2 LC0 239_0df31cb9 N714    :     0.0   ----    71.5     200    36

White advantage = 17.18 +/- 19.59
Draw rate (equal opponents) = 50.00 % +/- 0.00

Games

majortom · Post by **majortom** » Mon May 28, 2018 10:06 am

Code: Select all

   # PLAYER                   :  RATING  ERROR  POINTS  PLAYED   (%)
   1 LC0 330_de60388a N714    :   279.2   32.5   293.5     400    73
   2 LC0 239_0df31cb9 N714    :   180.6   24.7   450.5     800    56
   3 LC0 302_ade7ac45 N714    :   133.5   26.6   327.0     600    55
   4 LC0 173_101eeb41 N2k     :   119.4   25.3   311.5     600    52
   5 LC0 125_738edc3d N2k     :     0.0   ----   217.5     800    27

White advantage = 15.84 +/- 6.65
Draw rate (equal opponents) = 50.00 % +/- 0.00

Code: Select all

1 LC0 330_de60388a N714 :279.2 400 (+231,=125,- 44), 73.4 %

LC0 239_0df31cb9 N714   : 200 (+ 83,= 91,- 26), 64.3 %
LC0 125_738edc3d N2k    : 200 (+148,= 34,- 18), 82.5 %

2 LC0 239_0df31cb9 N714 :180.6 800 (+299,=303,-198), 56.3 %

LC0 330_de60388a N714   : 200 (+ 26,= 91,- 83), 35.8 %
LC0 302_ade7ac45 N714   : 200 (+ 51,= 89,- 60), 47.8 %
LC0 125_738edc3d N2k    : 200 (+134,= 48,- 18), 79.0 %
LC0 173_101eeb41 N2k    : 200 (+ 88,= 75,- 37), 62.8 %

3 LC0 302_ade7ac45 N714 :133.5 600 (+199,=256,-145), 54.5 %

LC0 239_0df31cb9 N714   : 200 (+ 60,= 89,- 51), 52.3 %
LC0 125_738edc3d N2k    : 200 (+ 77,= 84,- 39), 59.5 %
LC0 173_101eeb41 N2k    : 200 (+ 62,= 83,- 55), 51.8 %

4 LC0 173_101eeb41 N2k  :119.4 600 (+203,=217,-180), 51.9 %

LC0 302_ade7ac45 N714   : 200 (+ 55,= 83,- 62), 48.3 %
LC0 239_0df31cb9 N714   : 200 (+ 37,= 75,- 88), 37.3 %
LC0 125_738edc3d N2k    : 200 (+111,= 59,- 30), 70.3 %

5 LC0 125_738edc3d N2k  :  0.0 800 (+105,=225,-470), 27.2 %

LC0 330_de60388a N714   : 200 (+ 18,= 34,-148), 17.5 %
LC0 302_ade7ac45 N714   : 200 (+ 39,= 84,- 77), 40.5 %
LC0 239_0df31cb9 N714   : 200 (+ 18,= 48,-134), 21.0 %
LC0 173_101eeb41 N2k    : 200 (+ 30,= 59,-111), 29.8 %

majortom · Post by **majortom** » Mon May 28, 2018 10:10 am

Code: Select all

   # PLAYER                   :  RATING  ERROR  POINTS  PLAYED   (%)
   1 Stockfish 130418 D15     :   311.0   49.2   171.0     200    86
   2 LC0 302_ade7ac45 N714    :     0.0   ----    29.0     200    15

White advantage = 7.08 +/- 26.21
Draw rate (equal opponents) = 50.00 % +/- 0.00

Games

majortom · Post by **majortom** » Mon May 28, 2018 10:13 am

Code: Select all

   # PLAYER                   :  RATING  ERROR  POINTS  PLAYED   (%)
   1 Stockfish 130418 D15     :   662.3  128.2   885.5    1000    89
   2 LC0 330_de60388a N714    :   426.6  135.2    41.5     200    21
   3 LC0 302_ade7ac45 N714    :   350.3  141.7    29.0     200    15
   4 LC0 239_0df31cb9 N714    :   307.9  134.7    23.5     200    12
   5 LC0 173_101eeb41 N2k     :   233.1  141.9    16.0     200     8
   6 LC0 125_738edc3d N2k     :     0.0   ----     4.5     200     2

White advantage = 22.54 +/- 12.29
Draw rate (equal opponents) = 50.00 % +/- 0.00

Code: Select all

1 Stockfish 130418 D15  :662.3 1000 (+813,=145,- 42), 88.5 %

LC0 330_de60388a N714   : 200 (+134,= 49,- 17), 79.3 %
LC0 302_ade7ac45 N714   : 200 (+152,= 38,- 10), 85.5 %
LC0 239_0df31cb9 N714   : 200 (+161,= 31,-  8), 88.3 %
LC0 173_101eeb41 N2k    : 200 (+173,= 22,-  5), 92.0 %
LC0 125_738edc3d N2k    : 200 (+193,=  5,-  2), 97.8 %

2 LC0 330_de60388a N714 :426.6 200 (+ 17,= 49,-134), 20.8 %

Stockfish 130418 D15    : 200 (+ 17,= 49,-134), 20.8 %

3 LC0 302_ade7ac45 N714 :350.3 200 (+ 10,= 38,-152), 14.5 %

Stockfish 130418 D15    : 200 (+ 10,= 38,-152), 14.5 %

4 LC0 239_0df31cb9 N714 :307.9 200 (+  8,= 31,-161), 11.8 %

Stockfish 130418 D15    : 200 (+  8,= 31,-161), 11.8 %

5 LC0 173_101eeb41 N2k  :233.1 200 (+  5,= 22,-173),  8.0 %

Stockfish 130418 D15    : 200 (+  5,= 22,-173),  8.0 %

6 LC0 125_738edc3d N2k  :  0.0 200 (+  2,=  5,-193),  2.3 %

Stockfish 130418 D15    : 200 (+  2,=  5,-193),  2.3 %

majortom · Post by **majortom** » Wed May 30, 2018 10:59 am

The match LC0 173_101eeb41 N128k against Stockfish 130418 D15 should be finished soon, I hope, but I started a new one two days ago.

If we take two versions of LCZero, between which a month of development:

Code: Select all

173 	101eeb41 	5176.54 	50526 	10 	128 	2018-04-23 01:43:00.201447 -0400 EDT
330 	de60388a 	5905.68 	68274 	15 	192 	2018-05-23 09:43:14.535737 -0400 EDT

we can see about 200 elo increase against Stockfish 130418 D15:

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   # PLAYER                   :  RATING  ERROR  POINTS  PLAYED   (%)
   1 Stockfish 130418 D15     :   431.6   69.3   342.5     400    86
   2 LC0 330_de60388a N714    :   194.3   78.2    41.5     200    21
   3 LC0 173_101eeb41 N2k     :     0.0   ----    16.0     200     8

White advantage = 39.03 +/- 19.63
Draw rate (equal opponents) = 50.00 % +/- 0.00

We can assume that LC0 173_101eeb41 N256k would have about the same strength as Stockfish 130418 D15:

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   # PLAYER                    :  RATING  ERROR  POINTS  PLAYED   (%)
   1 Stockfish 130418 D15      :   113.3   34.6   237.0     385    62
   2 LC0 173_101eeb41 N128k    :    60.8   51.2    79.0     185    43
   3 LC0 173_101eeb41 N64k     :     0.0   ----    69.0     200    35

White advantage = 32.51 +/- 14.00
Draw rate (equal opponents) = 50.00 % +/- 0.00

Therefore LC0 330_de60388a with 91429 playouts per move should be about 200 elo stronger than Stockfish 130418 D15.

91 429 playouts for 192x15 LCZero is about 256 000 playouts for 128x10 LCZero:

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   128x10     192x15
	
    1,000        357
    2,000        714
    4,000      1,429
    8,000      2,857
   16,000      5,714
   32,000     11,429
   64,000     22,857
  128,000     45,714
  256,000     91,429
  512,000    182,857
1,024,000    365,714

The new match is LC0 330_de60388a with 91429 playouts vs. Stockfish 130418 D15.

majortom · Post by **majortom** » Wed May 30, 2018 11:06 am

Code: Select all

   # PLAYER                   :  RATING  ERROR  POINTS  PLAYED   (%)
   1 LC0 330_de60388a N91k    :   440.3  553.2     5.0       6    83
   2 Stockfish 130418 D15     :     0.0   ----     1.0       6    17

White advantage = -307.80 +/- 321.12
Draw rate (equal opponents) = 50.00 % +/- 0.00

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1 LC0 330_de60388a N91k :440.3 6 (+  4,=  2,-  0), 83.3 %

Stockfish 130418 D15    : 6 (+  4,=  2,-  0), 83.3 %

2 Stockfish 130418 D15  :  0.0 6 (+  0,=  2,-  4), 16.7 %

LC0 330_de60388a N91k   : 6 (+  0,=  2,-  4), 16.7 %

PGN-file will be updated once per day.

Milos · Post by **Milos** » Wed May 30, 2018 12:29 pm

majortom wrote: ↑Wed May 30, 2018 10:59 am Therefore LC0 330_de60388a with 91429 playouts per move should be about 200 elo stronger than Stockfish 130418 D15.

91 429 playouts for 192x15 LCZero is about 256 000 playouts for 128x10 LCZero:

So basically it is roughly 2 minutes per move if you use cudnn version of LC0 on 1060 vs. 50ms it takes SF to reach depth 15 on something like 4 cores.
2500x advantage in time for 200 Elo advantage. Lc0 seems to really reached SF in strength

.

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