Who will win the TCEC Season 8 final?
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:30 am
Who do you think will win the great final of this amazing tournament?
Although until recently I thought Komodo is the favorite, with the latest fast SF compile sent to Martin I get such a decisive result in direct match at 5'+3'', that I am now of the opinion that SF is the favorite. K 9.2 is with Contempt=0.FriedmannC wrote:Who do you think will win the great final of this amazing tournament?
i dont expect sf to win even if its better than komodoLaskos wrote:Although until recently I thought Komodo is the favorite, with the latest fast SF compile sent to Martin I get such a decisive result in direct match at 5'+3'', that I am now of the opinion that SF is the favorite. K 9.2 is with Contempt=0.FriedmannC wrote:Who do you think will win the great final of this amazing tournament?
120 games at 5 min + 3 secs one core ponder off
SF : K
+41 -18 =61
71.5:48.5
67 +/- 44 ELO points
That is even more skewed than what Ingo gets for IPON at 5+3. Ingo also got that SF performs worse against weaker engines, but it's irrelevant for Superfinal. For Komodo to overcome this huge, larger than 2:1 Win:Loss handicap, it would need some of the following:
1/ K of the Superfinal is much stronger than K 9.2
2/ SF scales really poorly compared to Komodo to longer TC
3/ Lazy_SMP on SF performs really bad on 24 threads
4/ SF loses many games on time
All in all, I voted for Stockfish.
I tried to be smart and saw immediately that Mark and Larry will bribe Martin.stavros wrote:i dont expect sf to win even if its better than komodoLaskos wrote:Although until recently I thought Komodo is the favorite, with the latest fast SF compile sent to Martin I get such a decisive result in direct match at 5'+3'', that I am now of the opinion that SF is the favorite. K 9.2 is with Contempt=0.FriedmannC wrote:Who do you think will win the great final of this amazing tournament?
120 games at 5 min + 3 secs one core ponder off
SF : K
+41 -18 =61
71.5:48.5
67 +/- 44 ELO points
That is even more skewed than what Ingo gets for IPON at 5+3. Ingo also got that SF performs worse against weaker engines, but it's irrelevant for Superfinal. For Komodo to overcome this huge, larger than 2:1 Win:Loss handicap, it would need some of the following:
1/ K of the Superfinal is much stronger than K 9.2
2/ SF scales really poorly compared to Komodo to longer TC
3/ Lazy_SMP on SF performs really bad on 24 threads
4/ SF loses many games on time
All in all, I voted for Stockfish.
the reasons ? think smart
my 100% bet to komodo
Yes, the possibility of equal match is not negligible. For example if the expected score is +9 -7 =84 for one engine, then there is, according to binomial distribution, 20% to get exactly the expected score +9 -7, and 17% to get an equal match +8 -8.FriedmannC wrote:With that ,,Hulk'' hardware, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see an equal match after 100 games, with very few decisive games.