Who will win the TCEC Season 8 final?
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Who will win the TCEC Season 8 final?
Who do you think will win the great final of this amazing tournament?
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Re: Who will win the TCEC Season 8 final?
Although until recently I thought Komodo is the favorite, with the latest fast SF compile sent to Martin I get such a decisive result in direct match at 5'+3'', that I am now of the opinion that SF is the favorite. K 9.2 is with Contempt=0.FriedmannC wrote:Who do you think will win the great final of this amazing tournament?
120 games at 5 min + 3 secs one core ponder off
SF : K
+41 -18 =61
71.5:48.5
67 +/- 44 ELO points
That is even more skewed than what Ingo gets for IPON at 5+3. Ingo also got that SF performs worse against weaker engines, but it's irrelevant for Superfinal. For Komodo to overcome this huge, larger than 2:1 Win:Loss handicap, it would need some of the following:
1/ K of the Superfinal is much stronger than K 9.2
2/ SF scales really poorly compared to Komodo to longer TC
3/ Lazy_SMP on SF performs really bad on 24 threads
4/ SF loses many games on time
All in all, I voted for Stockfish.
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Re: Who will win the TCEC Season 8 final?
i dont expect sf to win even if its better than komodoLaskos wrote:Although until recently I thought Komodo is the favorite, with the latest fast SF compile sent to Martin I get such a decisive result in direct match at 5'+3'', that I am now of the opinion that SF is the favorite. K 9.2 is with Contempt=0.FriedmannC wrote:Who do you think will win the great final of this amazing tournament?
120 games at 5 min + 3 secs one core ponder off
SF : K
+41 -18 =61
71.5:48.5
67 +/- 44 ELO points
That is even more skewed than what Ingo gets for IPON at 5+3. Ingo also got that SF performs worse against weaker engines, but it's irrelevant for Superfinal. For Komodo to overcome this huge, larger than 2:1 Win:Loss handicap, it would need some of the following:
1/ K of the Superfinal is much stronger than K 9.2
2/ SF scales really poorly compared to Komodo to longer TC
3/ Lazy_SMP on SF performs really bad on 24 threads
4/ SF loses many games on time
All in all, I voted for Stockfish.
the reasons ? think smart
my 100% bet to komodo
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- Full name: Kai Laskos
Re: Who will win the TCEC Season 8 final?
I tried to be smart and saw immediately that Mark and Larry will bribe Martin.stavros wrote:i dont expect sf to win even if its better than komodoLaskos wrote:Although until recently I thought Komodo is the favorite, with the latest fast SF compile sent to Martin I get such a decisive result in direct match at 5'+3'', that I am now of the opinion that SF is the favorite. K 9.2 is with Contempt=0.FriedmannC wrote:Who do you think will win the great final of this amazing tournament?
120 games at 5 min + 3 secs one core ponder off
SF : K
+41 -18 =61
71.5:48.5
67 +/- 44 ELO points
That is even more skewed than what Ingo gets for IPON at 5+3. Ingo also got that SF performs worse against weaker engines, but it's irrelevant for Superfinal. For Komodo to overcome this huge, larger than 2:1 Win:Loss handicap, it would need some of the following:
1/ K of the Superfinal is much stronger than K 9.2
2/ SF scales really poorly compared to Komodo to longer TC
3/ Lazy_SMP on SF performs really bad on 24 threads
4/ SF loses many games on time
All in all, I voted for Stockfish.
the reasons ? think smart
my 100% bet to komodo
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Re: Who will win the TCEC Season 8 final?
I only take this serious if a vote means a bet of 100 euro. Of course money will equally be divided between all the winners and bank gets 10%.
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Re: Who will win the TCEC Season 8 final?
After 300 games, it seems previously I got a bit extreme result, now it's tamer:
300 games 5 min + 3 secs SF:K one core ponder off
+88 -52 =160
168:132
42 +/- 27 ELO points
It would indicate a close Superfinal, as Komodo probably does scale better to very long time control.
300 games 5 min + 3 secs SF:K one core ponder off
+88 -52 =160
168:132
42 +/- 27 ELO points
It would indicate a close Superfinal, as Komodo probably does scale better to very long time control.
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Re: Who will win the TCEC Season 8 final?
With that ,,Hulk'' hardware, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see an equal match after 100 games, with very few decisive games.
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- Full name: Kai Laskos
Re: Who will win the TCEC Season 8 final?
Yes, the possibility of equal match is not negligible. For example if the expected score is +9 -7 =84 for one engine, then there is, according to binomial distribution, 20% to get exactly the expected score +9 -7, and 17% to get an equal match +8 -8.FriedmannC wrote:With that ,,Hulk'' hardware, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see an equal match after 100 games, with very few decisive games.
Meanwhile I left overnight SF against K 9.2 for 100 games at 15 mins + 9 secs, one core ponder off, and the result is:
+22 -13 =65 for Stockfish. I expect a very close Superfinal, as Komodo is probably scaling better.
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Re: Who will win the TCEC Season 8 final?
I ran off 4500 games on 1 thread at 2' + 1" between the two versions submitted for the final. My result is minus 16 elo for Komodo. Now that SF has lazy smp, I don't think we can count on better scaling with more cores, although I hope Komodo still retains better scaling with more time. So I expect a very close match, with the result probably too close to be meaningful.
Komodo rules!
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Re: Who will win the TCEC Season 8 final?
How strong is the Komodo who will play the final Larry plz ?