TCEC Season 6 - Stage 4 now live

[Laskos]

The new predictions after 14 RR (84 games) out of 16 RR (96 games) in Stage 4 are almost conclusive:


STAGE 4: To Superfinal

SF: 1.00
K: 0.97
H4: 0.03
Cr: 0.00

__________

To win STAGE 4

SF: 0.87
K: 0.13
H4: 0.00
Cr: 0.00

__________

Victory in Superfinal

SF: 0.63
K: 0.36
H4: 0.01
Cr: 0.00

__________

SF adversary if it's in Superfinal

K: 0.97
H4: 0.03
Cr: 0.00

[lucasart]

Clearly this will be a SF vs. K like last time. Let's hope SF will be lucky this time

[Laskos]

Clearly this will be a SF vs. K like last time. Let's hope SF will be lucky this time

SF-K superfinal is so unpredictable, that I won't do any simulations. Will just watch some games

[Laskos]

The predictions after 15 RR (90 games) out of 16 RR (96 games) in Stage 4 are final:


STAGE 4: To Superfinal

SF: 1.00
K: 1.00

H4: 0.00
Cr: 0.00

__________

To win STAGE 4

SF: 1.00
K: 0.00

H4: 0.00
Cr: 0.00

[Milos]

The predictions after 15 RR (90 games) out of 16 RR (96 games) in Stage 4 are final:

Lol, it is not prediction since result is already determined, even though teoretically Komodo could still surpass SF for 1st place, but chance for such an event is like 1e-5 or less.

[Uri Blass]

If stockfish lose the 3 remaining games and komodo wins the 3 remaining games then Komodo is first place.
I think that even if komodo score only 2.5 points more than stockfish in the
remaining games then komodo is first place.

[Uri Blass]

The predictions after 15 RR (90 games) out of 16 RR (96 games) in Stage 4 are final:

Lol, it is not prediction since result is already determined.

result is not determined.
If Komodo lose the rest of the games and crash in one of them when houdini wins the rest of the games then houdini can promote to the super final.

There are also small chances that Komodo wins stage 4 and not stockfish.

[Milos]

result is not determined.
If Komodo lose the rest of the games and crash in one of them when houdini wins the rest of the games then houdini can promote to the super final.

Komodo would have better SB no matter what. H could qualify only if K is disqualified. There is more chance that burglars brake into Martin's apartement and take all the equipment than that to happen though .

[Uri Blass]

result is not determined.
If Komodo lose the rest of the games and crash in one of them when houdini wins the rest of the games then houdini can promote to the super final.

Komodo would have better SB no matter what. H could qualify only if K is disqualified. There is more chance that burglars brake into Martin's apartement and take all the equipment than that to happen though .

The first tie break is not SB but the program that did not crash
so houdini still has small chances if there is a bug in komodo.

[Milos]

The first tie break is not SB but the program that did not crash
so houdini still has small chances if there is a bug in komodo.

That is a stupid rule that does not exist in any sport. Number of withdrawals (due to injury or whatever reason) is never a factor for tie-breaks. On the other hand Martin is known for stupid rules.
However, talking about chance for Komodo to crash is really ridiculous since chance for that to happen is far smaller than chance for Tournament not to finish at all due to some external reasons (stolen equipment, fire, illness, chessdome permanently down, etc.)