Stockfish 13 depth 16 rating estimate

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Ferdy
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Stockfish 13 depth 16 rating estimate

Post by Ferdy »

What would be the estimated rating of Stockfish 13 at fixed depth 16 playing against the players in the Meltwater Chess Tour at a time control of 15 minutes + 10 seconds increment?
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MikeB
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Re: Stockfish 13 depth 16 rating estimate

Post by MikeB »

Ferdy wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:30 pm What would be the estimated rating of Stockfish 13 at fixed depth 16 playing against the players in the Meltwater Chess Tour at a time control of 15 minutes + 10 seconds increment?
I believe it will play at a GM level in the opening and middle game. Fixed depth is hard to estimate since fixed depth of 16 in an endgame is not very deep and that is where a a strong non-GM Chess player could outmaneuver SF.
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Ferdy
Posts: 4833
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Location: Philippines

Re: Stockfish 13 depth 16 rating estimate

Post by Ferdy »

MikeB wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 7:27 am
Ferdy wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:30 pm What would be the estimated rating of Stockfish 13 at fixed depth 16 playing against the players in the Meltwater Chess Tour at a time control of 15 minutes + 10 seconds increment?
I believe it will play at a GM level in the opening and middle game. Fixed depth is hard to estimate since fixed depth of 16 in an endgame is not very deep and that is where a a strong non-GM Chess player could outmaneuver SF.
True the weakness of engine is in the ending.

I have this from the wiki, Kramnik playing against Deep Fritz 10.
Kramnik–Deep Fritz (2006)
Kramnik, then still the World Champion, played a six-game match against the computer program Deep Fritz in Bonn, Germany from 25 November – 5 December 2006, losing 4–2 to the machine, with two losses and four draws. He received 500,000 Euros for playing and would have received another 500,000 Euros had he won the match. Deep Fritz version 10 ran on a computer containing two Intel Xeon CPUs (a Xeon DC 5160 3 GHz processor with a 1333 MHz FSB and a 4 MB L2 cache) and was able to evaluate eight million positions per second. Kramnik received a copy of the program in mid-October for testing, but the final version included an updated opening book.[24] Except for limited updates to the opening book, the program was not allowed to be changed during the course of the match. The endgame tablebases used by the program were restricted to five pieces even though a complete six-piece tablebase is widely available. While Deep Fritz was in its opening book Kramnik is allowed to see Fritz's display. The Fritz display contains opening book moves, number of games, Elo performance, score from grandmaster games and the move weighting.[25]

In the first five games, Kramnik steered the game into a typical "anti-computer" positional contest. On 25 November, the first game ended in a draw at the 47th move.[26] A number of commentators believe Kramnik missed a win.[27] Two days later, the second game resulted in a victory for Deep Fritz when Kramnik made what Susan Polgar called the "blunder of the century", when he failed to defend against a threatened mate-in-one in an even position.[28] (see also Deep Fritz vs. Vladimir Kramnik blunder). The third, fourth and fifth games in the match ended in draws.

In the final game, in an attempt to draw the match, Kramnik played the more aggressive Sicilian Defence and was crushed,[29] losing the match 4–2.

There was speculation that interest in human–computer chess competition would plummet as a result of the 2006 Kramnik–Deep Fritz match. According to McGill University computer science professor Monty Newborn, for example, "I don’t know what one could get out of it [a further match] at this point. The science is done.".[30] The prediction appears to have come true, with no further major human–computer matches, as of 2019.
We can get Kramnik's rating at that time.
Deep Fritz version 10 ran on a computer containing two Intel Xeon CPUs (a Xeon DC 5160 3 GHz processor with a 1333 MHz FSB and a 4 MB L2 cache)
DC 5160 is a 2 core processor, so DF10 was run on 4 cores. Deep Fritz 10.1 4 cores is 2886 in cegt, but DC5160 4-core is probably stronger than 4-core CEGT hardware. If I add 50 to 2886 that could be around single core Fritz 13 cegt 40/15. Kramnik and DF10 was probably playing more than TC 15m+10s on that match. But in Meltwater it is only 15m+10s. The Meltwater players will be under time pressure against SF13 depth 16. What would be the TC of Fritz 13 or other engine with similar strength for cegt hardware to simulate the DF10 in 2006?