Evaluation of moves from World Championship Games

Discussion of anything and everything relating to chess playing software and machines.

Moderators: hgm, Rebel, chrisw

jmartus
Posts: 256
Joined: Sun May 16, 2010 2:50 am

Re: Evaluation of moves from World Championship Games

Post by jmartus »

I'm sure if anything computers have made the game more competitive, plus more resources available in general
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KLc
Posts: 140
Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:46 am
Full name: Kurt Lanc

Re: Evaluation of moves from World Championship Games

Post by KLc »

At only 5s per move, I'm questioning the accuracy. For example, in the "immortal game" Kasparov vs. Topalov (not a championship match) after 24..cxd4 Stockfish 12 starts at -4 and only at depth 38 it suddenly jumps to +4. With 4 threads this happens after a bit more than 5 seconds on my machine. It's just an example, I'm sure there are better ones.

[pgn][Event "Hoogovens Group A"]
[Site "Wijk aan Zee NED"]
[Date "1999.01.20"]
[Round "4"]
[White "Garry Kasparov"]
[Black "Veselin Topalov"]
[Result "1-0"]
[BlackElo "2700"]
[ECO "B06"]
[EventDate "1999.01.16"]
[WhiteElo "2812"]

1.e4 d6 2.d4 Nf6 3.Nc3 g6 4.Be3 Bg7 5.Qd2 c6 6.f3 b5 7.Nge2 Nbd7 8.Bh6 Bxh6 9.Qxh6 Bb7 10.a3 e5 11.O-O-O Qe7 12.Kb1 a6 13.Nc1 O-O-O 14.Nb3 exd4 15.Rxd4 c5 16.Rd1 Nb6 17.g3 Kb8 18.Na5 Ba8 19.Bh3 d5 20.Qf4+ Ka7 21.Rhe1 d4 22.Nd5 Nbxd5 23.exd5 Qd6 24.Rxd4 cxd4 25.Re7+ Kb6 26.Qxd4+ Kxa5 27.b4+ Ka4 28.Qc3 Qxd5 29.Ra7 Bb7 30.Rxb7 Qc4 31.Qxf6 Kxa3 32.Qxa6+ Kxb4 33.c3+ Kxc3 34.Qa1+ Kd2 35.Qb2+ Kd1 36.Bf1 Rd2 37.Rd7 Rxd7 38.Bxc4 bxc4 39.Qxh8 Rd3 40.Qa8 c3 41.Qa4+ Ke1 42.f4 f5 43.Kc1 Rd2 44.Qa7 1-0

[/pgn]
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Ferdy
Posts: 4833
Joined: Sun Aug 10, 2008 3:15 pm
Location: Philippines

Re: Evaluation of moves from World Championship Games

Post by Ferdy »

KLc wrote: ↑Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:39 am At only 5s per move, I'm questioning the accuracy.
The point is all the matches such as Carlsen-Anand 2013, Capablanca-Lasker and others are all analyzed on the same 5s/position and other conditions. You can do at higher movetime, it is fine as long as the same conditions are applied to all the matches.

Just uploaded evaluate.py script, this can be used to analyze the game and output the evaluation to csv file. This csv file then can be used to generate new average error comparison.
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Vinvin
Posts: 5228
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 9:40 am
Full name: Vincent Lejeune

Re: Evaluation of moves from World Championship Games

Post by Vinvin »

Another paper about the same subject : https://www.thinkmind.org/articles/icse ... _10137.pdf
From here : https://www.thinkmind.org/index.php?vie ... 9_40_10137
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Ferdy
Posts: 4833
Joined: Sun Aug 10, 2008 3:15 pm
Location: Philippines

Re: Evaluation of moves from World Championship Games

Post by Ferdy »

Vinvin wrote: ↑Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:09 am Another paper about the same subject : https://www.thinkmind.org/articles/icse ... _10137.pdf
From here : https://www.thinkmind.org/index.php?vie ... 9_40_10137
Thanks for the info. good to see what others are doing.
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Ferdy
Posts: 4833
Joined: Sun Aug 10, 2008 3:15 pm
Location: Philippines

Re: Evaluation of moves from World Championship Games

Post by Ferdy »

Uploaded stats.py

Usage
python stats.py >stats.txt

Be sure to install the requirements as it needs pandas, tabulate and matplotlib libraries.

Code: Select all

pip install -r requirements.txt
Will output a plot and below.

Code: Select all

Event: World Championship 12th
Date: 1921.??.??
A. Average error in centipawn (low is better)
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|   GameNum |   Capablanca |   Lasker |   Capablanca_score |
+===========+==============+==========+====================+
|         1 |          8.6 |     12.5 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         2 |         14.4 |     10.3 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         3 |          4   |      6.9 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         4 |          4.5 |      2.5 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         5 |         22.8 |     17.9 |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         6 |          3.2 |      1.9 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         7 |          7.7 |      5.9 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         8 |          3.7 |      4.3 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         9 |         14.3 |      2.7 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        10 |         16.1 |     22.6 |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        11 |         14.3 |     22   |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        12 |         32   |     37.2 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        13 |          6.7 |      2.7 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        14 |         15.7 |     25.3 |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+

B. Overall average error in centipawn (low is better)
+--------------+----------+
|   Capablanca |   Lasker |
+==============+==========+
|           12 |     12.5 |
+--------------+----------+

C. Move Number with 50 to 100 cp error from a playable position (-50/50) cp, (high or None is better)
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|   GameNum | Capablanca   | Lasker   |   Capablanca_score |
+===========+==============+==========+====================+
|         1 | None         | 13       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         2 | None         | 34       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         3 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         4 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         5 | None         | 15       |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         6 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         7 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         8 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         9 | 20           | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        10 | None         | 17       |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        11 | None         | None     |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        12 | 12           | 14       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        13 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        14 | 12           | None     |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+

D. Move Number with 101 to 300 cp error from a playable position (-50/50) cp, (high or None is better)
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|   GameNum | Capablanca   | Lasker   |   Capablanca_score |
+===========+==============+==========+====================+
|         1 | None         | 41       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         2 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         3 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         4 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         5 | None         | 23       |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         6 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         7 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         8 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         9 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        10 | None         | None     |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        11 | None         | None     |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        12 | None         | 20       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        13 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        14 | None         | 29       |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+

E. Move Number with 301 to 500 cp error from a playable position (-50/50) cp, (high or None is better)
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|   GameNum | Capablanca   | Lasker   |   Capablanca_score |
+===========+==============+==========+====================+
|         1 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         2 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         3 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         4 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         5 | None         | None     |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         6 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         7 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         8 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|         9 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        10 | None         | None     |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        11 | None         | None     |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        12 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        13 | None         | None     |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+
|        14 | None         | None     |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+----------+--------------------+

Event: World Championship 13th
Date: 1927.??.??
A. Average error in centipawn (low is better)
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|   GameNum |   Capablanca |   Alekhine |   Capablanca_score |
+===========+==============+============+====================+
|         1 |         48.2 |       35.1 |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         2 |          2.8 |        2.9 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         3 |         20.9 |       41.1 |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         4 |          3.6 |        3.6 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         5 |          1.5 |        0.9 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         6 |          5.8 |        7.5 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         7 |          6.2 |       30.3 |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         8 |          1.6 |        3.8 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         9 |          1.3 |        1   |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        10 |          0.8 |        0.3 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        11 |         19.8 |       15.5 |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        12 |         31.7 |        7.1 |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        13 |          1.1 |        3.1 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        14 |          9.4 |       10.1 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        15 |          1.9 |        4.4 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        16 |         17   |       13.5 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        17 |          5.8 |        5.3 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        18 |          7.9 |       12.5 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        19 |         10.7 |        8   |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        20 |          2.9 |        4.6 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        21 |         32.8 |       10.7 |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        22 |          8.3 |       10.8 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        23 |         10.4 |        4.5 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        24 |          9.9 |       13.3 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        25 |         10.5 |       12.5 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        26 |          4.1 |        3.6 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        27 |         14.8 |       35   |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        28 |          4.8 |        5.4 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        29 |          7   |       20   |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        30 |          1.9 |        3.2 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        31 |         24.1 |       23.1 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        32 |         16.3 |        8.8 |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        33 |         11.9 |       10.1 |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        34 |         21.4 |       13   |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+

B. Overall average error in centipawn (low is better)
+--------------+------------+
|   Capablanca |   Alekhine |
+==============+============+
|         11.1 |       11.3 |
+--------------+------------+

C. Move Number with 50 to 100 cp error from a playable position (-50/50) cp, (high or None is better)
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|   GameNum | Capablanca   | Alekhine   |   Capablanca_score |
+===========+==============+============+====================+
|         1 | 15           | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         2 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         3 | None         | None       |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         4 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         5 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         6 | 21           | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         7 | None         | 12         |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         8 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         9 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        10 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        11 | None         | 13         |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        12 | 16           | 21         |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        13 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        14 | 18           | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        15 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        16 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        17 | None         | 16         |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        18 | None         | 22         |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        19 | None         | 15         |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        20 | None         | 17         |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        21 | 20           | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        22 | 20           | 26         |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        23 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        24 | 20           | 26         |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        25 | None         | 13         |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        26 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        27 | None         | 23         |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        28 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        29 | None         | 13         |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        30 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        31 | None         | 24         |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        32 | 16           | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        33 | 13           | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        34 | None         | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+

D. Move Number with 101 to 300 cp error from a playable position (-50/50) cp, (high or None is better)
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|   GameNum | Capablanca   | Alekhine   |   Capablanca_score |
+===========+==============+============+====================+
|         1 | 30           | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         2 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         3 | None         | None       |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         4 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         5 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         6 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         7 | None         | None       |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         8 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         9 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        10 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        11 | None         | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        12 | None         | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        13 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        14 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        15 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        16 | None         | 19         |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        17 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        18 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        19 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        20 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        21 | 22           | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        22 | 33           | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        23 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        24 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        25 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        26 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        27 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        28 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        29 | None         | 26         |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        30 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        31 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        32 | None         | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        33 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        34 | 26           | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+

E. Move Number with 301 to 500 cp error from a playable position (-50/50) cp, (high or None is better)
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|   GameNum | Capablanca   | Alekhine   |   Capablanca_score |
+===========+==============+============+====================+
|         1 | 33           | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         2 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         3 | None         | None       |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         4 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         5 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         6 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         7 | None         | None       |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         8 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|         9 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        10 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        11 | 47           | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        12 | None         | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        13 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        14 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        15 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        16 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        17 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        18 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        19 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        20 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        21 | None         | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        22 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        23 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        24 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        25 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        26 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        27 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        28 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        29 | None         | 55         |                1   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        30 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        31 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        32 | None         | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        33 | None         | None       |                0.5 |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+
|        34 | None         | None       |                0   |
+-----------+--------------+------------+--------------------+

...

Overall Player Average Centipawn Error
+------------+-----------+--------+
| name       |   CpError |   year |
+============+===========+========+
| Carlsen    |       3.8 |   2013 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Karjakin   |       6.5 |   2016 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Carlsen    |       7   |   2018 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Carlsen    |       7.9 |   2016 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Anand      |       7.9 |   2013 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Caruana    |       8.4 |   2018 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Kramnik    |       9.7 |   2000 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Kasparov   |      10.8 |   1987 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Capablanca |      11.1 |   1927 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Alekhine   |      11.3 |   1927 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Karpov     |      11.5 |   1987 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Fischer    |      11.8 |   1972 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Capablanca |      12   |   1921 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Kasparov   |      12.4 |   2000 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Lasker     |      12.5 |   1921 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Spassky    |      13.5 |   1972 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Tal        |      14.6 |   1960 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
| Botvinnik  |      18.2 |   1960 |
+------------+-----------+--------+
If you have other data already analyzed, you have to modify the stats.py.

Code: Select all

def main():
    max_score = 500  # score to stop error calculation +/-max_score
    start_move = 12
    analysisfn = './docs/human_eval.csv'

    names, errors, years = [], [], []

    # Get game files for player errors to generate.
    game_files = ['./docs/pgn/WorldChamp1921.pgn',
                  './docs/pgn/WorldChamp1927.pgn',
                  './docs/pgn/WorldChamp1960.pgn',
                  './docs/pgn/WorldChamp1972.pgn',
                  './docs/pgn/WorldChamp1987.pgn',
                  './docs/pgn/WorldChamp2000.pgn',
                  './docs/pgn/WorldChamp2013.pgn',
                  './docs/pgn/WorldChamp2016.pgn',
                  './docs/pgn/WorldChamp2018.pgn']
                  
 ...
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Ferdy
Posts: 4833
Joined: Sun Aug 10, 2008 3:15 pm
Location: Philippines

Re: Evaluation of moves from World Championship Games

Post by Ferdy »

Added Alekhine-Euwe 1935.

Image

Code: Select all

Event: World Championship 16th
Date: 1935.??.??
A. Average error in centipawn (low is better)
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|   GameNum |   Alekhine |   Euwe |   Alekhine_score |
+===========+============+========+==================+
|         1 |        9.1 |   30.2 |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         2 |       43.9 |   30.6 |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         3 |       27.6 |   41   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         4 |       19.4 |   36.6 |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         5 |        5.2 |    7.6 |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         6 |       21.5 |   23.5 |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         7 |       18.9 |   44.2 |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         8 |       17.2 |   19.2 |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         9 |       28.1 |   32.3 |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        10 |       43.8 |   28.8 |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        11 |        6.3 |    6.4 |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        12 |       20.5 |    6.4 |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        13 |       30.3 |   29.4 |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        14 |       33.2 |   26   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        15 |       33.1 |   26.8 |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        16 |       13.6 |   25   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        17 |       19.6 |   11.9 |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        18 |        4.8 |    0   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        19 |        6.2 |   18.1 |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        20 |       25.3 |   10.7 |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        21 |       29.7 |   17.6 |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        22 |       13.2 |    9.4 |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        23 |       13.7 |   16.1 |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        24 |       35.7 |   26.7 |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        25 |       31.1 |    8.4 |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        26 |       18.8 |   22   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        27 |       17   |   35.4 |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        28 |       15.5 |   20.6 |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        29 |        3.6 |    5.7 |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        30 |       25.3 |   16.9 |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+

B. Overall average error in centipawn (low is better)
+------------+--------+
|   Alekhine |   Euwe |
+============+========+
|         21 |   21.1 |
+------------+--------+

C. Move Number with 50 to 100 cp error from a playable position (-50/50) cp, (high or None is better)
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|   GameNum | Alekhine   | Euwe   |   Alekhine_score |
+===========+============+========+==================+
|         1 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         2 | 13         | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         3 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         4 | 14         | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         5 | None       | 17     |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         6 | None       | 36     |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         7 | None       | 12     |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         8 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         9 | None       | 27     |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        10 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        11 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        12 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        13 | 13         | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        14 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        15 | 18         | 31     |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        16 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        17 | 23         | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        18 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        19 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        20 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        21 | None       | 12     |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        22 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        23 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        24 | 14         | 27     |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        25 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        26 | 24         | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        27 | None       | 18     |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        28 | None       | 12     |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        29 | None       | 21     |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        30 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+

D. Move Number with 101 to 300 cp error from a playable position (-50/50) cp, (high or None is better)
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|   GameNum | Alekhine   | Euwe   |   Alekhine_score |
+===========+============+========+==================+
|         1 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         2 | 33         | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         3 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         4 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         5 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         6 | 21         | 50     |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         7 | None       | 17     |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         8 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         9 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        10 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        11 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        12 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        13 | 36         | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        14 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        15 | 21         | 37     |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        16 | None       | 22     |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        17 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        18 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        19 | None       | 13     |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        20 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        21 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        22 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        23 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        24 | None       | 22     |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        25 | 15         | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        26 | 32         | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        27 | None       | 34     |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        28 | None       | 28     |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        29 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        30 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+

E. Move Number with 301 to 500 cp error from a playable position (-50/50) cp, (high or None is better)
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|   GameNum | Alekhine   | Euwe   |   Alekhine_score |
+===========+============+========+==================+
|         1 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         2 | 39         | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         3 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         4 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         5 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         6 | None       | 55     |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         7 | None       | 21     |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         8 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|         9 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        10 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        11 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        12 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        13 | 14         | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        14 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        15 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        16 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        17 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        18 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        19 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        20 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        21 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        22 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        23 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        24 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        25 | None       | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        26 | 38         | None   |              0   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        27 | None       | None   |              1   |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        28 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        29 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
|        30 | None       | None   |              0.5 |
+-----------+------------+--------+------------------+
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MikeGL
Posts: 1010
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:49 pm

Re: Evaluation of moves from World Championship Games

Post by MikeGL »

Thanks for this graph.
So it seems the analysis of journalists, experts and GMs were all correct.
Karpov is a bit accurate compared to R.J.Fischer so Karpov will surely crush Fischer in case Fischer showed up to defend his World Champion crown

Journalists and GM commentators only gauge was their score against Spassky.
Karpov has higher win rate against Spassky.
Fischer's score was okayish against Spassky but not better than that of Karpov's


yes, karpov fan here..
Where's the score of ex world champ Petrosian. I remember Fischer knocked him out at candidates before the match of the century with Spassky.
I told my wife that a husband is like a fine wine; he gets better with age. The next day, she locked me in the cellar.
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Ferdy
Posts: 4833
Joined: Sun Aug 10, 2008 3:15 pm
Location: Philippines

Re: Evaluation of moves from World Championship Games

Post by Ferdy »

MikeGL wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 7:53 am Thanks for this graph.
So it seems the analysis of journalists, experts and GMs were all correct.
Karpov is a bit accurate compared to R.J.Fischer so Karpov will surely crush Fischer in case Fischer showed up to defend his World Champion crown

Journalists and GM commentators only gauge was their score against Spassky.
Karpov has higher win rate against Spassky.
Fischer's score was okayish against Spassky but not better than that of Karpov's


yes, karpov fan here..
Where's the score of ex world champ Petrosian. I remember Fischer knocked him out at candidates before the match of the century with Spassky.
Next will be Karpov-Korchnoi 1978 which was actually held in our country :), I was 10 years old then. An interesting match with some controversies :D
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Karlo Bala
Posts: 373
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2006 10:17 am
Location: Novi Sad, Serbia
Full name: Karlo Balla

Re: Evaluation of moves from World Championship Games

Post by Karlo Bala »

By today's standards at move 12, we are still in the middle of the opening book. I suspect the results are biased. Try the same but start for example at move 20 to see if there is a difference between the results. In their matches, Kasparov & Karpov played the same opening over and over until beaten to death.
Best Regards,
Karlo Balla Jr.
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