You want to see why human can NOT compete vs engines in Bullet Games?

[mwyoung]

I checked games of both Fischer and Carlsen at or near their peak. Playing both classical and blitz time controls.

Carlsen blitz results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   57/14/28/25/29/57/28/24/6/65/40/79/10/28/16/21/30/15/16/0  => Average=0.31

Fischer blitz results.

Code: Select all

Fischer Robert James:   86/101/31/32/44/37/23/24/33/79/48/31/38/50/67/30/17/76/19/11  => Average=0.46

Carlsen classic results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   3/15/64/8/66/8/3/54/22/13/22/12/11/2/7/2/10/5/12/4  => Average=0.18

Fischer classic results.

Code: Select all

31/29/14/29/86/9/10/18/12/5/16/9/12/15/12/20/15/12/19/3  => Average=0.20

Games
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/ ... sp=sharing

One point to consider when looking at these average error numbers: Some portion of the average error is due to error by the analysis engine. I don't know the depth or time limit used for the analysis, but I imagine that it is a very short amount of time, so the engine error is not trivial. This doesn't much matter if we are just comparing one player to another, but to interpret the actual number, it does. For example, Fischer's average classic error is 0.20. On average, if the engine says 0.00 and Fischer's move is -0.20, then the truth is probably something like -.05, in between the two but much closer to the engine. So I think 0.05 is a good estimate of the amount to deduct from the averages to estimate the average "true" error. If so then the average "true" error in classic is 0.13 to 0.15 for Carlsen and Fischer, and 0.26 to 0.41 in blitz for same players, somewhat over double on average, which seems quite reasonable. Presumably Rapid (15' + 10") errors would be about halfway between these numbers. Based solely on this math even Carlsen would have no chance vs. top engine in blitz at knight odds and little chance even in Rapid (the errors would add up to way more than 400 cp for forty moves), but that's clearly wrong. Carlsen would just play safely to minimize the chance of big errors. Anyway it does appear that the errors are smaller with the top players now than fifty years ago, and that results and ratings do correlate with the errors reported. I suppose that if we knew what rating player averaged 0.31 error at classic time limit, we would be able to estimate the classic rating level of Carlsen's blitz play (for example).

Carlsen's blitz error of 31 is equal to a 2380 Elo +/- 25 Elo classical rating.

[lkaufman]

I checked games of both Fischer and Carlsen at or near their peak. Playing both classical and blitz time controls.

Carlsen blitz results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   57/14/28/25/29/57/28/24/6/65/40/79/10/28/16/21/30/15/16/0  => Average=0.31

Fischer blitz results.

Code: Select all

Fischer Robert James:   86/101/31/32/44/37/23/24/33/79/48/31/38/50/67/30/17/76/19/11  => Average=0.46

Carlsen classic results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   3/15/64/8/66/8/3/54/22/13/22/12/11/2/7/2/10/5/12/4  => Average=0.18

Fischer classic results.

Code: Select all

31/29/14/29/86/9/10/18/12/5/16/9/12/15/12/20/15/12/19/3  => Average=0.20

Games
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/ ... sp=sharing

One point to consider when looking at these average error numbers: Some portion of the average error is due to error by the analysis engine. I don't know the depth or time limit used for the analysis, but I imagine that it is a very short amount of time, so the engine error is not trivial. This doesn't much matter if we are just comparing one player to another, but to interpret the actual number, it does. For example, Fischer's average classic error is 0.20. On average, if the engine says 0.00 and Fischer's move is -0.20, then the truth is probably something like -.05, in between the two but much closer to the engine. So I think 0.05 is a good estimate of the amount to deduct from the averages to estimate the average "true" error. If so then the average "true" error in classic is 0.13 to 0.15 for Carlsen and Fischer, and 0.26 to 0.41 in blitz for same players, somewhat over double on average, which seems quite reasonable. Presumably Rapid (15' + 10") errors would be about halfway between these numbers. Based solely on this math even Carlsen would have no chance vs. top engine in blitz at knight odds and little chance even in Rapid (the errors would add up to way more than 400 cp for forty moves), but that's clearly wrong. Carlsen would just play safely to minimize the chance of big errors. Anyway it does appear that the errors are smaller with the top players now than fifty years ago, and that results and ratings do correlate with the errors reported. I suppose that if we knew what rating player averaged 0.31 error at classic time limit, we would be able to estimate the classic rating level of Carlsen's blitz play (for example).

Carlsen's blitz error of 31 is equal to a 2380 Elo +/- 25 Elo classical rating.

That sounds about right. The difference between classical and blitz play is roughly like the handicap of playing a 30 board simul, and I would guess that 2380 FIDE would be about 50/50 with Carlsen playing 30 strong players at once.

[mwyoung]

I checked games of both Fischer and Carlsen at or near their peak. Playing both classical and blitz time controls.

Carlsen blitz results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   57/14/28/25/29/57/28/24/6/65/40/79/10/28/16/21/30/15/16/0  => Average=0.31

Fischer blitz results.

Code: Select all

Fischer Robert James:   86/101/31/32/44/37/23/24/33/79/48/31/38/50/67/30/17/76/19/11  => Average=0.46

Carlsen classic results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   3/15/64/8/66/8/3/54/22/13/22/12/11/2/7/2/10/5/12/4  => Average=0.18

Fischer classic results.

Code: Select all

31/29/14/29/86/9/10/18/12/5/16/9/12/15/12/20/15/12/19/3  => Average=0.20

Games
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/ ... sp=sharing

One point to consider when looking at these average error numbers: Some portion of the average error is due to error by the analysis engine. I don't know the depth or time limit used for the analysis, but I imagine that it is a very short amount of time, so the engine error is not trivial. This doesn't much matter if we are just comparing one player to another, but to interpret the actual number, it does. For example, Fischer's average classic error is 0.20. On average, if the engine says 0.00 and Fischer's move is -0.20, then the truth is probably something like -.05, in between the two but much closer to the engine. So I think 0.05 is a good estimate of the amount to deduct from the averages to estimate the average "true" error. If so then the average "true" error in classic is 0.13 to 0.15 for Carlsen and Fischer, and 0.26 to 0.41 in blitz for same players, somewhat over double on average, which seems quite reasonable. Presumably Rapid (15' + 10") errors would be about halfway between these numbers. Based solely on this math even Carlsen would have no chance vs. top engine in blitz at knight odds and little chance even in Rapid (the errors would add up to way more than 400 cp for forty moves), but that's clearly wrong. Carlsen would just play safely to minimize the chance of big errors. Anyway it does appear that the errors are smaller with the top players now than fifty years ago, and that results and ratings do correlate with the errors reported. I suppose that if we knew what rating player averaged 0.31 error at classic time limit, we would be able to estimate the classic rating level of Carlsen's blitz play (for example).

Carlsen's blitz error of 31 is equal to a 2380 Elo +/- 25 Elo classical rating.

That sounds about right. The difference between classical and blitz play is roughly like the handicap of playing a 30 board simul, and I would guess that 2380 FIDE would be about 50/50 with Carlsen playing 30 strong players at once.

I am running your last 50 games against PlayKomodo. As no one will better understand the games, and Komodo, and how you won, lost, or drew the games then the author himself. And all the games are Odds games. I have no clue what Komodo 16 is, or what that settings are for this version of Komodo. But there is only one game.

But this could give you a better understanding of the numbers we are seeing. As the analysis we are using is meant for "cheat detection" in standard games. But is clearly has more potential.

[lkaufman]

I checked games of both Fischer and Carlsen at or near their peak. Playing both classical and blitz time controls.

Carlsen blitz results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   57/14/28/25/29/57/28/24/6/65/40/79/10/28/16/21/30/15/16/0  => Average=0.31

Fischer blitz results.

Code: Select all

Fischer Robert James:   86/101/31/32/44/37/23/24/33/79/48/31/38/50/67/30/17/76/19/11  => Average=0.46

Carlsen classic results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   3/15/64/8/66/8/3/54/22/13/22/12/11/2/7/2/10/5/12/4  => Average=0.18

Fischer classic results.

Code: Select all

31/29/14/29/86/9/10/18/12/5/16/9/12/15/12/20/15/12/19/3  => Average=0.20

Games
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/ ... sp=sharing

One point to consider when looking at these average error numbers: Some portion of the average error is due to error by the analysis engine. I don't know the depth or time limit used for the analysis, but I imagine that it is a very short amount of time, so the engine error is not trivial. This doesn't much matter if we are just comparing one player to another, but to interpret the actual number, it does. For example, Fischer's average classic error is 0.20. On average, if the engine says 0.00 and Fischer's move is -0.20, then the truth is probably something like -.05, in between the two but much closer to the engine. So I think 0.05 is a good estimate of the amount to deduct from the averages to estimate the average "true" error. If so then the average "true" error in classic is 0.13 to 0.15 for Carlsen and Fischer, and 0.26 to 0.41 in blitz for same players, somewhat over double on average, which seems quite reasonable. Presumably Rapid (15' + 10") errors would be about halfway between these numbers. Based solely on this math even Carlsen would have no chance vs. top engine in blitz at knight odds and little chance even in Rapid (the errors would add up to way more than 400 cp for forty moves), but that's clearly wrong. Carlsen would just play safely to minimize the chance of big errors. Anyway it does appear that the errors are smaller with the top players now than fifty years ago, and that results and ratings do correlate with the errors reported. I suppose that if we knew what rating player averaged 0.31 error at classic time limit, we would be able to estimate the classic rating level of Carlsen's blitz play (for example).

Carlsen's blitz error of 31 is equal to a 2380 Elo +/- 25 Elo classical rating.

That sounds about right. The difference between classical and blitz play is roughly like the handicap of playing a 30 board simul, and I would guess that 2380 FIDE would be about 50/50 with Carlsen playing 30 strong players at once.

I am running your last 50 games against PlayKomodo. As no one will better understand the games, and Komodo, and how you won, lost, or drew the games then the author himself. And all the games are Odds games. I have no clue what Komodo 16 is, or what that settings are for this version of Komodo. But there is only one game.

But this could give you a better understanding of the numbers we are seeing. As the analysis we are using is meant for "cheat detection" in standard games. But is clearly has more potential.

I don't recall anything called "Komodo 16". If you are getting these games from chess.com archive, they should just say "PlayKomodo" as my opponent, as far as I know. Games played in the last couple months should all be Dragon games (either release version or at least something close to release version), though they might not say so. Any games aborted after just a few moves should be ignored, they were probably just tests to make sure everything was working properly. There is a wide range of time limits, so error rate will vary with that. Most of the games were knight odds; I think that human error rates are generally lower in knight odds games than in normal chess, though I'm not certain of that.

[mwyoung]

I checked games of both Fischer and Carlsen at or near their peak. Playing both classical and blitz time controls.

Carlsen blitz results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   57/14/28/25/29/57/28/24/6/65/40/79/10/28/16/21/30/15/16/0  => Average=0.31

Fischer blitz results.

Code: Select all

Fischer Robert James:   86/101/31/32/44/37/23/24/33/79/48/31/38/50/67/30/17/76/19/11  => Average=0.46

Carlsen classic results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   3/15/64/8/66/8/3/54/22/13/22/12/11/2/7/2/10/5/12/4  => Average=0.18

Fischer classic results.

Code: Select all

31/29/14/29/86/9/10/18/12/5/16/9/12/15/12/20/15/12/19/3  => Average=0.20

Games
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/ ... sp=sharing

One point to consider when looking at these average error numbers: Some portion of the average error is due to error by the analysis engine. I don't know the depth or time limit used for the analysis, but I imagine that it is a very short amount of time, so the engine error is not trivial. This doesn't much matter if we are just comparing one player to another, but to interpret the actual number, it does. For example, Fischer's average classic error is 0.20. On average, if the engine says 0.00 and Fischer's move is -0.20, then the truth is probably something like -.05, in between the two but much closer to the engine. So I think 0.05 is a good estimate of the amount to deduct from the averages to estimate the average "true" error. If so then the average "true" error in classic is 0.13 to 0.15 for Carlsen and Fischer, and 0.26 to 0.41 in blitz for same players, somewhat over double on average, which seems quite reasonable. Presumably Rapid (15' + 10") errors would be about halfway between these numbers. Based solely on this math even Carlsen would have no chance vs. top engine in blitz at knight odds and little chance even in Rapid (the errors would add up to way more than 400 cp for forty moves), but that's clearly wrong. Carlsen would just play safely to minimize the chance of big errors. Anyway it does appear that the errors are smaller with the top players now than fifty years ago, and that results and ratings do correlate with the errors reported. I suppose that if we knew what rating player averaged 0.31 error at classic time limit, we would be able to estimate the classic rating level of Carlsen's blitz play (for example).

Carlsen's blitz error of 31 is equal to a 2380 Elo +/- 25 Elo classical rating.

That sounds about right. The difference between classical and blitz play is roughly like the handicap of playing a 30 board simul, and I would guess that 2380 FIDE would be about 50/50 with Carlsen playing 30 strong players at once.

I am running your last 50 games against PlayKomodo. As no one will better understand the games, and Komodo, and how you won, lost, or drew the games then the author himself. And all the games are Odds games. I have no clue what Komodo 16 is, or what that settings are for this version of Komodo. But there is only one game.

But this could give you a better understanding of the numbers we are seeing. As the analysis we are using is meant for "cheat detection" in standard games. But is clearly has more potential.

Larry vs Komodo last 50 Odds games.

Code: Select all

PlayKomodo:   32  => Average=0.32
hissha:   112  => Average=1.12
PlayKomodo:   32/9  => Average=0.23
hissha:   112/4  => Average=0.73
PlayKomodo:   32/23/9  => Average=0.23
hissha:   112/11/4  => Average=0.52
hissha:   112/89/11/4  => Average=0.63
PlayKomodo:   32/23/23/9  => Average=0.23
hissha:   112/89/11/38/4  => Average=0.58
PlayKomodo:   32/23/23/8/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/11/38/4  => Average=0.62
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/23/8/9  => Average=0.18
hissha:   112/89/80/37/11/38/4  => Average=0.59
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/23/8/9  => Average=0.17
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/23/8/49/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/37/11/38/15/4  => Average=0.54
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/23/8/19/49/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/37/11/38/4/15/4  => Average=0.49
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/11/23/8/19/49/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/37/11/38/4/15/4  => Average=0.48
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/49/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/4/15/4  => Average=0.46
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/49/14/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/4/15/4/4  => Average=0.43
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.41
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/11/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   36/112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12  => Average=0.19
hissha:   36/112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7  => Average=0.35
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12  => Average=0.19
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12  => Average=0.18
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.40
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.18
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.42
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.17
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.43
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.17
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.16
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.44
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.16
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.42
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.16
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.43
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.42
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.45
Komodo16:   55  => Average=0.55
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/8/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/65/38/21/37/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.44
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/8/23/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/65/38/21/37/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.42
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/31/11/8/23/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/21/37/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.41
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.40
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/6/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/14/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/6/15/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/14/10/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/10/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/15/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/15/7/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/10/54/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/15/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/10/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/10/15/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/4/10/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.37
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/61/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/18/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/61/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/32/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.39

Done

Code: Select all

PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/18/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/61/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/32/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.39
Komodo16:   55  => Average=0.55

Code: Select all

Live Chess Chess.com  2020

hissha    2267 - PlayKomodo    3400   19.0 - 30.0    +14/=10/-25    38.78%
hissha    2267 - Komodo16      2146   0.0 - 1.0    +0/=0/-1    0.00%

Games:

[Cornfed]

No.

[mwyoung]

No.

I guess you really do want to know. Since you not only clicked on the thread, and then also commented.
Never look at what people say, but what they do!

[lkaufman]

I checked games of both Fischer and Carlsen at or near their peak. Playing both classical and blitz time controls.

Carlsen blitz results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   57/14/28/25/29/57/28/24/6/65/40/79/10/28/16/21/30/15/16/0  => Average=0.31

Fischer blitz results.

Code: Select all

Fischer Robert James:   86/101/31/32/44/37/23/24/33/79/48/31/38/50/67/30/17/76/19/11  => Average=0.46

Carlsen classic results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   3/15/64/8/66/8/3/54/22/13/22/12/11/2/7/2/10/5/12/4  => Average=0.18

Fischer classic results.

Code: Select all

31/29/14/29/86/9/10/18/12/5/16/9/12/15/12/20/15/12/19/3  => Average=0.20

Games
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/ ... sp=sharing

One point to consider when looking at these average error numbers: Some portion of the average error is due to error by the analysis engine. I don't know the depth or time limit used for the analysis, but I imagine that it is a very short amount of time, so the engine error is not trivial. This doesn't much matter if we are just comparing one player to another, but to interpret the actual number, it does. For example, Fischer's average classic error is 0.20. On average, if the engine says 0.00 and Fischer's move is -0.20, then the truth is probably something like -.05, in between the two but much closer to the engine. So I think 0.05 is a good estimate of the amount to deduct from the averages to estimate the average "true" error. If so then the average "true" error in classic is 0.13 to 0.15 for Carlsen and Fischer, and 0.26 to 0.41 in blitz for same players, somewhat over double on average, which seems quite reasonable. Presumably Rapid (15' + 10") errors would be about halfway between these numbers. Based solely on this math even Carlsen would have no chance vs. top engine in blitz at knight odds and little chance even in Rapid (the errors would add up to way more than 400 cp for forty moves), but that's clearly wrong. Carlsen would just play safely to minimize the chance of big errors. Anyway it does appear that the errors are smaller with the top players now than fifty years ago, and that results and ratings do correlate with the errors reported. I suppose that if we knew what rating player averaged 0.31 error at classic time limit, we would be able to estimate the classic rating level of Carlsen's blitz play (for example).

Carlsen's blitz error of 31 is equal to a 2380 Elo +/- 25 Elo classical rating.

That sounds about right. The difference between classical and blitz play is roughly like the handicap of playing a 30 board simul, and I would guess that 2380 FIDE would be about 50/50 with Carlsen playing 30 strong players at once.

I am running your last 50 games against PlayKomodo. As no one will better understand the games, and Komodo, and how you won, lost, or drew the games then the author himself. And all the games are Odds games. I have no clue what Komodo 16 is, or what that settings are for this version of Komodo. But there is only one game.

But this could give you a better understanding of the numbers we are seeing. As the analysis we are using is meant for "cheat detection" in standard games. But is clearly has more potential.

Larry vs Komodo last 50 Odds games.

Code: Select all

PlayKomodo:   32  => Average=0.32
hissha:   112  => Average=1.12
PlayKomodo:   32/9  => Average=0.23
hissha:   112/4  => Average=0.73
PlayKomodo:   32/23/9  => Average=0.23
hissha:   112/11/4  => Average=0.52
hissha:   112/89/11/4  => Average=0.63
PlayKomodo:   32/23/23/9  => Average=0.23
hissha:   112/89/11/38/4  => Average=0.58
PlayKomodo:   32/23/23/8/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/11/38/4  => Average=0.62
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/23/8/9  => Average=0.18
hissha:   112/89/80/37/11/38/4  => Average=0.59
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/23/8/9  => Average=0.17
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/23/8/49/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/37/11/38/15/4  => Average=0.54
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/23/8/19/49/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/37/11/38/4/15/4  => Average=0.49
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/11/23/8/19/49/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/37/11/38/4/15/4  => Average=0.48
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/49/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/4/15/4  => Average=0.46
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/49/14/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/4/15/4/4  => Average=0.43
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.41
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/11/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   36/112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12  => Average=0.19
hissha:   36/112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7  => Average=0.35
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12  => Average=0.19
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12  => Average=0.18
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.40
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.18
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.42
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.17
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.43
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.17
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.16
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.44
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.16
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.42
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.16
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.43
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.42
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.45
Komodo16:   55  => Average=0.55
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/8/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/65/38/21/37/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.44
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/8/23/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/65/38/21/37/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.42
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/31/11/8/23/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/21/37/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.41
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.40
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/6/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/14/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/6/15/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/14/10/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/10/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/15/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/15/7/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/10/54/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/15/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/10/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/10/15/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/4/10/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.37
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/61/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/18/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/61/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/32/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.39

Done

Code: Select all

PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/18/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/61/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/32/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.39
Komodo16:   55  => Average=0.55

Code: Select all

Live Chess Chess.com  2020

hissha    2267 - PlayKomodo    3400   19.0 - 30.0    +14/=10/-25    38.78%
hissha    2267 - Komodo16      2146   0.0 - 1.0    +0/=0/-1    0.00%

Games:

Komodo 16 was just the bot on chess.com that is supposedly equal to Skill level 16, so this was normal chess against a weak engine. But the other games were the real Komodo on my threadripper, mostly at knight odds, a few at two pawns and move odds. My error rate being triple the Dragon sounds about right, although my 0.39 in fast rapid and slow blitz games is probably better than I would get in normal chess at those time limits, since it is around the error rates of the superstars in blitz play.

[mwyoung]

I checked games of both Fischer and Carlsen at or near their peak. Playing both classical and blitz time controls.

Carlsen blitz results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   57/14/28/25/29/57/28/24/6/65/40/79/10/28/16/21/30/15/16/0  => Average=0.31

Fischer blitz results.

Code: Select all

Fischer Robert James:   86/101/31/32/44/37/23/24/33/79/48/31/38/50/67/30/17/76/19/11  => Average=0.46

Carlsen classic results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   3/15/64/8/66/8/3/54/22/13/22/12/11/2/7/2/10/5/12/4  => Average=0.18

Fischer classic results.

Code: Select all

31/29/14/29/86/9/10/18/12/5/16/9/12/15/12/20/15/12/19/3  => Average=0.20

Games
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/ ... sp=sharing

One point to consider when looking at these average error numbers: Some portion of the average error is due to error by the analysis engine. I don't know the depth or time limit used for the analysis, but I imagine that it is a very short amount of time, so the engine error is not trivial. This doesn't much matter if we are just comparing one player to another, but to interpret the actual number, it does. For example, Fischer's average classic error is 0.20. On average, if the engine says 0.00 and Fischer's move is -0.20, then the truth is probably something like -.05, in between the two but much closer to the engine. So I think 0.05 is a good estimate of the amount to deduct from the averages to estimate the average "true" error. If so then the average "true" error in classic is 0.13 to 0.15 for Carlsen and Fischer, and 0.26 to 0.41 in blitz for same players, somewhat over double on average, which seems quite reasonable. Presumably Rapid (15' + 10") errors would be about halfway between these numbers. Based solely on this math even Carlsen would have no chance vs. top engine in blitz at knight odds and little chance even in Rapid (the errors would add up to way more than 400 cp for forty moves), but that's clearly wrong. Carlsen would just play safely to minimize the chance of big errors. Anyway it does appear that the errors are smaller with the top players now than fifty years ago, and that results and ratings do correlate with the errors reported. I suppose that if we knew what rating player averaged 0.31 error at classic time limit, we would be able to estimate the classic rating level of Carlsen's blitz play (for example).

Carlsen's blitz error of 31 is equal to a 2380 Elo +/- 25 Elo classical rating.

That sounds about right. The difference between classical and blitz play is roughly like the handicap of playing a 30 board simul, and I would guess that 2380 FIDE would be about 50/50 with Carlsen playing 30 strong players at once.

I am running your last 50 games against PlayKomodo. As no one will better understand the games, and Komodo, and how you won, lost, or drew the games then the author himself. And all the games are Odds games. I have no clue what Komodo 16 is, or what that settings are for this version of Komodo. But there is only one game.

But this could give you a better understanding of the numbers we are seeing. As the analysis we are using is meant for "cheat detection" in standard games. But is clearly has more potential.

Larry vs Komodo last 50 Odds games.

Code: Select all

PlayKomodo:   32  => Average=0.32
hissha:   112  => Average=1.12
PlayKomodo:   32/9  => Average=0.23
hissha:   112/4  => Average=0.73
PlayKomodo:   32/23/9  => Average=0.23
hissha:   112/11/4  => Average=0.52
hissha:   112/89/11/4  => Average=0.63
PlayKomodo:   32/23/23/9  => Average=0.23
hissha:   112/89/11/38/4  => Average=0.58
PlayKomodo:   32/23/23/8/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/11/38/4  => Average=0.62
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/23/8/9  => Average=0.18
hissha:   112/89/80/37/11/38/4  => Average=0.59
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/23/8/9  => Average=0.17
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/23/8/49/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/37/11/38/15/4  => Average=0.54
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/23/8/19/49/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/37/11/38/4/15/4  => Average=0.49
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/11/23/8/19/49/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/37/11/38/4/15/4  => Average=0.48
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/49/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/4/15/4  => Average=0.46
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/49/14/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/4/15/4/4  => Average=0.43
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.41
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/11/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   36/112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12  => Average=0.19
hissha:   36/112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7  => Average=0.35
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12  => Average=0.19
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12  => Average=0.18
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.40
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.18
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.42
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.17
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.43
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.17
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.16
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.44
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.16
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.42
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.16
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.43
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.42
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.45
Komodo16:   55  => Average=0.55
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/8/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/65/38/21/37/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.44
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/8/23/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/65/38/21/37/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.42
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/31/11/8/23/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/21/37/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.41
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.40
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/6/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/14/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/6/15/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/14/10/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/10/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/15/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/15/7/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/10/54/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/15/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/10/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/10/15/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/4/10/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.37
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/61/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/18/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/61/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/32/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.39

Done

Code: Select all

PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/18/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/61/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/32/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.39
Komodo16:   55  => Average=0.55

Code: Select all

Live Chess Chess.com  2020

hissha    2267 - PlayKomodo    3400   19.0 - 30.0    +14/=10/-25    38.78%
hissha    2267 - Komodo16      2146   0.0 - 1.0    +0/=0/-1    0.00%

Games:

Komodo 16 was just the bot on chess.com that is supposedly equal to Skill level 16, so this was normal chess against a weak engine. But the other games were the real Komodo on my threadripper, mostly at knight odds, a few at two pawns and move odds. My error rate being triple the Dragon sounds about right, although my 0.39 in fast rapid and slow blitz games is probably better than I would get in normal chess at those time limits, since it is around the error rates of the superstars in blitz play.

I assumed the lower error rate is because you played many games, and learned from your mistakes. And I assume that Dragon does not have a opening book for odds games. And that is why I said you will know best how you won, lost, or drew the games.

But just based on your games. It suggest a 2700+ Elo Chess.com blitz rating is need to win against Komodo under the exact same conditions, and with Komodo 16 factored in the mix.

That is why I gave you the step analysis. As you started out with a 1.12 error rate. And after 50 games you were a .39.

[lkaufman]

I checked games of both Fischer and Carlsen at or near their peak. Playing both classical and blitz time controls.

Carlsen blitz results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   57/14/28/25/29/57/28/24/6/65/40/79/10/28/16/21/30/15/16/0  => Average=0.31

Fischer blitz results.

Code: Select all

Fischer Robert James:   86/101/31/32/44/37/23/24/33/79/48/31/38/50/67/30/17/76/19/11  => Average=0.46

Carlsen classic results.

Code: Select all

Carlsen Magnus:   3/15/64/8/66/8/3/54/22/13/22/12/11/2/7/2/10/5/12/4  => Average=0.18

Fischer classic results.

Code: Select all

31/29/14/29/86/9/10/18/12/5/16/9/12/15/12/20/15/12/19/3  => Average=0.20

Games
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/ ... sp=sharing

One point to consider when looking at these average error numbers: Some portion of the average error is due to error by the analysis engine. I don't know the depth or time limit used for the analysis, but I imagine that it is a very short amount of time, so the engine error is not trivial. This doesn't much matter if we are just comparing one player to another, but to interpret the actual number, it does. For example, Fischer's average classic error is 0.20. On average, if the engine says 0.00 and Fischer's move is -0.20, then the truth is probably something like -.05, in between the two but much closer to the engine. So I think 0.05 is a good estimate of the amount to deduct from the averages to estimate the average "true" error. If so then the average "true" error in classic is 0.13 to 0.15 for Carlsen and Fischer, and 0.26 to 0.41 in blitz for same players, somewhat over double on average, which seems quite reasonable. Presumably Rapid (15' + 10") errors would be about halfway between these numbers. Based solely on this math even Carlsen would have no chance vs. top engine in blitz at knight odds and little chance even in Rapid (the errors would add up to way more than 400 cp for forty moves), but that's clearly wrong. Carlsen would just play safely to minimize the chance of big errors. Anyway it does appear that the errors are smaller with the top players now than fifty years ago, and that results and ratings do correlate with the errors reported. I suppose that if we knew what rating player averaged 0.31 error at classic time limit, we would be able to estimate the classic rating level of Carlsen's blitz play (for example).

Carlsen's blitz error of 31 is equal to a 2380 Elo +/- 25 Elo classical rating.

That sounds about right. The difference between classical and blitz play is roughly like the handicap of playing a 30 board simul, and I would guess that 2380 FIDE would be about 50/50 with Carlsen playing 30 strong players at once.

I am running your last 50 games against PlayKomodo. As no one will better understand the games, and Komodo, and how you won, lost, or drew the games then the author himself. And all the games are Odds games. I have no clue what Komodo 16 is, or what that settings are for this version of Komodo. But there is only one game.

But this could give you a better understanding of the numbers we are seeing. As the analysis we are using is meant for "cheat detection" in standard games. But is clearly has more potential.

Larry vs Komodo last 50 Odds games.

Code: Select all

PlayKomodo:   32  => Average=0.32
hissha:   112  => Average=1.12
PlayKomodo:   32/9  => Average=0.23
hissha:   112/4  => Average=0.73
PlayKomodo:   32/23/9  => Average=0.23
hissha:   112/11/4  => Average=0.52
hissha:   112/89/11/4  => Average=0.63
PlayKomodo:   32/23/23/9  => Average=0.23
hissha:   112/89/11/38/4  => Average=0.58
PlayKomodo:   32/23/23/8/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/11/38/4  => Average=0.62
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/23/8/9  => Average=0.18
hissha:   112/89/80/37/11/38/4  => Average=0.59
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/23/8/9  => Average=0.17
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/23/8/49/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/37/11/38/15/4  => Average=0.54
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/23/8/19/49/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/37/11/38/4/15/4  => Average=0.49
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/11/23/8/19/49/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/37/11/38/4/15/4  => Average=0.48
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/49/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/4/15/4  => Average=0.46
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/49/14/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/4/15/4/4  => Average=0.43
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.41
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/11/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.19
hissha:   112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9  => Average=0.20
hissha:   36/112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12  => Average=0.19
hissha:   36/112/89/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7  => Average=0.35
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12  => Average=0.19
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12  => Average=0.18
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.40
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.18
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.42
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.17
hissha:   36/112/89/66/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.43
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.17
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.16
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.44
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5  => Average=0.16
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139  => Average=0.42
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.16
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.43
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.42
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/65/38/21/37/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.45
Komodo16:   55  => Average=0.55
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/8/23/5/8/19/19/13/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/65/38/21/37/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.44
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/9/11/31/11/8/23/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/65/38/21/37/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.42
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/31/11/8/23/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/21/37/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.41
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.40
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/6/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/14/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/11/6/15/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.15
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/38/14/10/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/10/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/15/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/15/7/31/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/10/54/21/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/15/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/10/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/10/15/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/4/10/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.37
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.37
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.14
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/16/11/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/11/1/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.38
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/61/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.39
PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/18/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/61/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/32/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.39

Done

Code: Select all

PlayKomodo:   10/31/32/23/6/8/5/7/21/9/3/6/11/6/6/13/10/15/17/7/31/24/11/8/23/13/1/11/5/8/19/19/13/12/18/8/7/19/49/11/14/5/12/9/12/5/7/0/6  => Average=0.13
hissha:   34/36/112/89/50/66/59/109/80/11/65/68/101/38/61/14/57/4/10/34/54/21/19/37/16/11/10/11/16/18/38/9/11/7/7/32/86/3/4/15/7/4/48/7/4/7/139/82/0/5  => Average=0.39
Komodo16:   55  => Average=0.55

Code: Select all

Live Chess Chess.com  2020

hissha    2267 - PlayKomodo    3400   19.0 - 30.0    +14/=10/-25    38.78%
hissha    2267 - Komodo16      2146   0.0 - 1.0    +0/=0/-1    0.00%

Games:

Komodo 16 was just the bot on chess.com that is supposedly equal to Skill level 16, so this was normal chess against a weak engine. But the other games were the real Komodo on my threadripper, mostly at knight odds, a few at two pawns and move odds. My error rate being triple the Dragon sounds about right, although my 0.39 in fast rapid and slow blitz games is probably better than I would get in normal chess at those time limits, since it is around the error rates of the superstars in blitz play.

I assumed the lower error rate is because you played many games, and learned from your mistakes. And I assume that Dragon does not have a opening book for odds games. And that is why I said you will know best how you won, lost, or drew the games.

But just based on your games. It suggest a 2700+ Elo Chess.com blitz rating is need to win against Komodo under the exact same conditions, and with Komodo 16 factored in the mix.

That is why I gave you the step analysis. As you started out with a 1.12 error rate. And after 50 games you were a .39.

Well I'd like to believe I learned something from my mistakes and got better, but it's probably not due to repeating exact games up to some error and then varying. Komodo does have a handicap book, and even if it was not used in some games or didn't provide variety, just using MP produces significant variety. Also the knight removed alternated usually, and I vary my own opening play to make it more interesting. I also note that the Komodo error rate also dropped a lot with more games; perhaps the early games were pre-Dragon. There's also the time limit; my play at 15' + 10" is much better than my play at 3' + 2" for example. I also think I make more mistakes at two pawn odds than at knight odds.