OliverBr wrote: ↑Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:19 amHere we have absolutely different opinions
IMO, when the big majority of engine doesn't have issues, it's a problem of the minority when it has.
So you would also insist that there was something wrong with people that were struck by lightning, because the large majority of people do not have this problem?
I think the basic issue is whether one should accept that there is a very low level of 'background noise' that just randomly awards forfeits/crashes. And I think we would all agree that this is the case. Cosmic radiation can flip memory bits, and flipping memory bits in the code can make any program crash. Error-detecting or error-correcting DRAM just reduces the probability that such a bit-flip would remain undetected by some factor (like 256 if you do parity on every byte of a 64-bit word); it doesn't absolutely zero it.
Under such conditions a crash is not absolute proof that a program was buggy. A cosmic-radiation crash has very small prior likelihood, but OTOH the evidence of 100K games without crash is pretty strong evidence against the hypothesis that the engine is buggy.
That there are other engines that have 1M games or even 10M games without being struck by cosmic radiation just proves that cosmic bit flips have a very low likelihood. But once they happen, they must happen to someone. It is like the 'lottery paradox'. Normally, if a coinf flip produces 10 out of 10 times 'heads', you would reject the hypothesis that it is a fair count, as this hypothesis would assign a probability of 1/1024 to the observed outcome. But if person A wins a lotery with 1M participants, you don't reject the hypothesis that it was a fair lottery. While the chances that A would have won in a fair lottery were only 1/1,000,0000, far smaller than the 1/1024! The crux is that the alternative hypothesis that the lottery was rigged is not 'monolithic', but diversifies in a million different flavors as to in whose favor it waould be rigged. This suppresses the prior likelihood that it was rigged in favor of A by a factor 1M. This is exactly the same factor as the 'fair' hypothesis suffers from the observation that A won. So after this observation the ratio of the likelihood for fair/rigged has not changed at all. In complete agreement with the common-sense argument that "
someone had to win". A posteriori knowing who the actual winner was just did not provide any evidence at all. Only when the same person would win twice in a row you would have evidence of foul play. (And I don't think only mathematicians would see that!) In this metaphor "being rigged in favor of A" translates to A being buggy, and winning the lottery = crashing. So you would only reject the hypothesis that the engine has no bugs (i.e. the cosmic-ray lottery being fair) if the same engine crashes twice, while most others don't.
P.S. crossed your last message, which I still have to read.