87% of the poll voted that SF will win Tcec Sufi 19.

[Guenther]

I just used this thing with 10W : 1L : 36D
https://www.3dkingdoms.com/chess/elo.htm

You realize you did not calculate for games, but for game pair results (with 2 games each, also treating win+loss the same as 2 draws per pair)?

[Laskos]

I just used this thing with 10W : 1L : 36D
https://www.3dkingdoms.com/chess/elo.htm

For Elo you have to count games as single and disregard colors in counting. But for LOS you can use +10 -1 which gives 99.7% likelihood of superiority. This is due to the fact that here for the pairwise result, the pentanomial outcomes in pairs of games (0, 1/2, 1, 3/2, 2) degenerates to trinomial (1/2, 1, 3/2) and we can use LOS and t-value (they are basically the related binomial p-value and t-value) of the +10 -1 =36 pairwise result.

[peter]

Wins = 18
Draws = 73
Losses = 9
Av.Op. Elo = 3500

Result : 54.5/100 (+18,=73,-9)
Perf. : 54.5 %
Margins :
68 % : (+ 2.6,- 2.5 %) -> [ 52.0, 57.1 %]
95 % : (+ 5.1,- 5.0 %) -> [ 49.5, 59.6 %]
99.7 % : (+ 7.7,- 7.5 %) -> [ 47.0, 62.2 %]

Elo : 3531
Margins :
68 % : (+ 18,- 18) -> [3514,3549]
95 % : (+ 36,- 35) -> [3497,3567]
99.7 % : (+ 55,- 52) -> [3479,3587]

[Guenther]

If someone wants a more readable PGN from the SUFI 19 of TCEC get it below.
As an example here the last winning game in the match (#94).

https://rwbc-chess.de/Downloads/TCEC-SUFI19_clean.7z

[pgn][Event "TCEC Season 19 - Superfinal"]
[Site "https://tcec-chess.com"]
[Date "2020.10.15"]
[Round "94.1"]
[White "Stockfish 202009282242_nn-baeb9ef2d183"]
[Black "LCZero v0.26.3-rc1_T60.SV.JH.92-190"]
[Result "1-0"]
[BlackElo "3542"]
[ECO "A80"]
[GameDuration "03:27:59"]
[GameEndTime "2020-10-15T13:07:56.182 UTC"]
[GameStartTime "2020-10-15T09:39:56.275 UTC"]
[Opening "Dutch"]
[PlyCount "104"]
[Termination "adjudication"]
[TerminationDetails "TCEC win rule"]
[TimeControl "7200+10"]
[WhiteElo "3564"]

1. d4 {book} f5 {book}
2. Nf3 {book} Nf6 {book}
3. g3 {book} g6 {book}
4. Bg2 {book} e6 {book}
5. c4 {0.85/53 6750.882} Bg7 {0.36/14 7135.940}
6. O-O {0.79/49 6200.628} O-O {0.37/16 7050.311}
7. Nc3 {0.83/50 6101.768} d6 {0.39/24 6813.336}
8. Re1 {0.83/47 6064.120} Ne4 {0.39/30 6810.830}
9. Qc2 {0.93/47 5980.378} Nxc3 {0.41/30 6734.874}
10. bxc3 {0.76/53 5844.172} Nc6 {0.37/33 6555.863}
11. c5 {1.23/43 5758.590} d5 {0.51/28 6349.179}
12. Bg5 {1.12/46 5696.861} Qd7 {0.53/41 6347.619}
13. c4 {1.23/43 5625.397} h6 {0.55/37 6227.018}
14. Be3 {1.08/50 5551.411} g5 {0.54/36 6150.761}
15. Rad1 {1.00/51 5470.707} Qf7 {0.53/24 6034.245}
16. cxd5 {1.40/44 5405.993} exd5 {0.58/36 5926.708}
17. Ne5 {1.13/55 5201.552} Nxe5 {0.58/35 5928.852}
18. dxe5 {1.13/62 5112.007} f4 {0.58/35 5791.400}
19. Bxd5 {1.50/44 5040.147} Be6 {0.82/40 5561.538}
20. Bxe6 {1.62/46 4973.972} Qxe6 {0.83/38 5562.105}
21. gxf4 {1.98/47 4899.154} gxf4 {0.85/38 5412.364}
22. Bd4 {2.12/47 4818.267} Rf5 {0.89/45 5287.307}
23. Kh1 {2.20/46 4738.095} Rg5 {0.93/30 5288.121}
24. f3 {2.27/47 4619.797} Rd8 {0.75/34 4797.668}
25. e3 {2.19/48 4535.840} fxe3 {1.19/22 4448.560}
26. Rxe3 {2.24/46 4463.764} b6 {1.62/25 3981.342}
27. c6 {3.13/41 4379.057} Rf5 {1.49/18 3841.513}
28. Rdd3 {3.36/41 4282.227} Rff8 {1.63/19 3615.578}
29. Re4 {3.86/41 4189.795} Kh8 {1.64/16 3617.581}
30. f4 {4.03/41 4129.068} Qf5 {1.88/18 3390.043}
31. Qg2 {4.50/40 4065.898} Rg8 {2.16/22 3207.797}
32. Rg3 {4.78/40 4006.093} b5 {2.33/26 3151.984}
33. h3 {5.98/41 3939.775} Kh7 {2.46/26 3090.702}
34. Bxa7 {6.52/39 3849.091} Ra8 {4.46/24 2895.453}
35. Bf2 {8.35/40 3760.689} Rxa2 {4.54/26 2719.039}
36. Re1 {13.27/39 3692.395} Qxf4 {5.04/25 2652.444}
37. Rg1 {18.23/37 3632.963} Qf8 {5.82/24 2293.678}
38. Qe4+ {36.16/38 3573.141} Kh8 {6.04/27 2289.832}
39. Be3 {69.06/45 3508.859} Ra4 {6.26/25 2290.844}
40. Qd5 {152.45/67 3443.104} Rh4 {6.67/24 2264.579}
41. Qd7 {M65/64 2757.382} b4 {8.81/23 1996.593}
42. e6 {M55/88 2711.147} Qf6 {14.61/24 1908.725}
43. e7 {M53/95 2664.972} Re4 {18.45/22 1847.944}
44. Rxg7 {M51/98 2612.970} Rxg7 {8.70/20 1610.744}
45. e8=Q+ {M49/95 2454.064} Rxe8 {8.41/20 1540.382}
46. Qxe8+ {M47/113 2409.151} Kh7 {8.42/19 1492.310}
47. Qe4+ {M45/111 2352.649} Rg6 {8.26/19 1283.901}
48. Bd4 {M31/117 2309.980} Qe6 {16.91/2 1101.714}
49. Qxe6 {M21/178 2268.494} Rxe6 {M24/2 962.661}
50. Rg7+ {M19/194 2227.391} Kh8 {M22/1 972.659}
51. Rg6+ {M17/226 2187.875} Kh7 {M20/2 822.325}
52. Rxe6 {M15/245 2194.425} h5 {M18/2 707.158}
1-0[/pgn]

Code: Select all

1. d4 {book} f5 {book}
2. Nf3 {book} Nf6 {book}
3. g3 {book} g6 {book}
4. Bg2 {book} e6 {book}
5. c4 {0.85/53 6750.882} Bg7 {0.36/14 7135.940}
6. O-O {0.79/49 6200.628} O-O {0.37/16 7050.311}
7. Nc3 {0.83/50 6101.768} d6 {0.39/24 6813.336}
8. Re1 {0.83/47 6064.120} Ne4 {0.39/30 6810.830}
9. Qc2 {0.93/47 5980.378} Nxc3 {0.41/30 6734.874}
10. bxc3 {0.76/53 5844.172} Nc6 {0.37/33 6555.863}
11. c5 {1.23/43 5758.590} d5 {0.51/28 6349.179}
12. Bg5 {1.12/46 5696.861} Qd7 {0.53/41 6347.619}
13. c4 {1.23/43 5625.397} h6 {0.55/37 6227.018}
14. Be3 {1.08/50 5551.411} g5 {0.54/36 6150.761}
15. Rad1 {1.00/51 5470.707} Qf7 {0.53/24 6034.245}
16. cxd5 {1.40/44 5405.993} exd5 {0.58/36 5926.708}
17. Ne5 {1.13/55 5201.552} Nxe5 {0.58/35 5928.852}
18. dxe5 {1.13/62 5112.007} f4 {0.58/35 5791.400}
19. Bxd5 {1.50/44 5040.147} Be6 {0.82/40 5561.538}
20. Bxe6 {1.62/46 4973.972} Qxe6 {0.83/38 5562.105}
21. gxf4 {1.98/47 4899.154} gxf4 {0.85/38 5412.364}
22. Bd4 {2.12/47 4818.267} Rf5 {0.89/45 5287.307}
23. Kh1 {2.20/46 4738.095} Rg5 {0.93/30 5288.121}
24. f3 {2.27/47 4619.797} Rd8 {0.75/34 4797.668}
25. e3 {2.19/48 4535.840} fxe3 {1.19/22 4448.560}
26. Rxe3 {2.24/46 4463.764} b6 {1.62/25 3981.342}
27. c6 {3.13/41 4379.057} Rf5 {1.49/18 3841.513}
28. Rdd3 {3.36/41 4282.227} Rff8 {1.63/19 3615.578}
29. Re4 {3.86/41 4189.795} Kh8 {1.64/16 3617.581}
30. f4 {4.03/41 4129.068} Qf5 {1.88/18 3390.043}
31. Qg2 {4.50/40 4065.898} Rg8 {2.16/22 3207.797}
32. Rg3 {4.78/40 4006.093} b5 {2.33/26 3151.984}
33. h3 {5.98/41 3939.775} Kh7 {2.46/26 3090.702}
34. Bxa7 {6.52/39 3849.091} Ra8 {4.46/24 2895.453}
35. Bf2 {8.35/40 3760.689} Rxa2 {4.54/26 2719.039}
36. Re1 {13.27/39 3692.395} Qxf4 {5.04/25 2652.444}
37. Rg1 {18.23/37 3632.963} Qf8 {5.82/24 2293.678}
38. Qe4+ {36.16/38 3573.141} Kh8 {6.04/27 2289.832}
39. Be3 {69.06/45 3508.859} Ra4 {6.26/25 2290.844}
40. Qd5 {152.45/67 3443.104} Rh4 {6.67/24 2264.579}
41. Qd7 {M65/64 2757.382} b4 {8.81/23 1996.593}
42. e6 {M55/88 2711.147} Qf6 {14.61/24 1908.725}
43. e7 {M53/95 2664.972} Re4 {18.45/22 1847.944}
44. Rxg7 {M51/98 2612.970} Rxg7 {8.70/20 1610.744}
45. e8=Q+ {M49/95 2454.064} Rxe8 {8.41/20 1540.382}
46. Qxe8+ {M47/113 2409.151} Kh7 {8.42/19 1492.310}
47. Qe4+ {M45/111 2352.649} Rg6 {8.26/19 1283.901}
48. Bd4 {M31/117 2309.980} Qe6 {16.91/2 1101.714}
49. Qxe6 {M21/178 2268.494} Rxe6 {M24/2 962.661}
50. Rg7+ {M19/194 2227.391} Kh8 {M22/1 972.659}
51. Rg6+ {M17/226 2187.875} Kh7 {M20/2 822.325}
52. Rxe6 {M15/245 2194.425} h5 {M18/2 707.158}
1-0