Can current top engines still be beaten?
Posted: Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:40 am
I don't have experience playing correspondence or very long time controls engine assisted matches. I do a lot of opening analysis and while I believe there is edge for white everywhere in human terms it all end up in endgames which should be easy to hold for engines.
I would love to get some perspective on it from more experience engine users.
The conditions are:
-SF dev, 7man tablebases
-top of the line hardware available today (let's say 128 EPYC cores)
-very long time controls (something like 3 hours + 1 minute increment)
-all games start from starting position
-top of the line opening book geared toward most solid and drawish openings (Berlin, Ragozin, whatever is considered the most solid vs Catalan)
-100 games, SF plays black in every of them
The question is: will there ever be an engine that wins 1 game vs that setup? what about 5 games?
My question is motivated by my recent interest in opening theory of Ragozin. Unless there are some very unexpected resources (that is moves engines of today consider to be completely harmless) white can choose between the following endgames:
1)2rr2k1/pp1n1pp1/2p4p/3p1b2/P2P4/2P1P3/3NBPPP/R3K2R w KQ - 1 16
2)r4rk1/pp1b1pp1/5n1p/2Pp4/3N4/2P1PP2/P5PP/3RKB1R b K - 0 15
3)r1bq2k1/pp3ppp/8/8/2B2P2/4r3/PPQ3PP/R4RK1 w - - 0 18
All of those are considered the state of the theory right now (although black maybe have a better option if white goes for 3rd one). They are very playable for humans and was won by elite GMs in classical or rapid games vs other elite GMs. Still, for an engine those are easy positions which not much material left. I just don't believe state of the art engine of of today on top of the line hardware losses any of those to a godlike engine of tomorrow. If I am right it means somewhere before there need to exists moves which while considered harmless today are somehow very good. This I think is very unlikely because top human players (like Anand for example) devote a lot of resources to comb through the opening theory with very serious hardware and many people to help and they are still unable to come up with anything better for white not only in Ragozin but in other major openings as well. It seems correspondence chess at top level is dead as well and the only fun left is if both players collaborate to play a position outside of the very mainlines (which also happens in engine matches/tournaments).
I would love to get some perspective on it from more experience engine users.
The conditions are:
-SF dev, 7man tablebases
-top of the line hardware available today (let's say 128 EPYC cores)
-very long time controls (something like 3 hours + 1 minute increment)
-all games start from starting position
-top of the line opening book geared toward most solid and drawish openings (Berlin, Ragozin, whatever is considered the most solid vs Catalan)
-100 games, SF plays black in every of them
The question is: will there ever be an engine that wins 1 game vs that setup? what about 5 games?
My question is motivated by my recent interest in opening theory of Ragozin. Unless there are some very unexpected resources (that is moves engines of today consider to be completely harmless) white can choose between the following endgames:
1)2rr2k1/pp1n1pp1/2p4p/3p1b2/P2P4/2P1P3/3NBPPP/R3K2R w KQ - 1 16
2)r4rk1/pp1b1pp1/5n1p/2Pp4/3N4/2P1PP2/P5PP/3RKB1R b K - 0 15
3)r1bq2k1/pp3ppp/8/8/2B2P2/4r3/PPQ3PP/R4RK1 w - - 0 18
All of those are considered the state of the theory right now (although black maybe have a better option if white goes for 3rd one). They are very playable for humans and was won by elite GMs in classical or rapid games vs other elite GMs. Still, for an engine those are easy positions which not much material left. I just don't believe state of the art engine of of today on top of the line hardware losses any of those to a godlike engine of tomorrow. If I am right it means somewhere before there need to exists moves which while considered harmless today are somehow very good. This I think is very unlikely because top human players (like Anand for example) devote a lot of resources to comb through the opening theory with very serious hardware and many people to help and they are still unable to come up with anything better for white not only in Ragozin but in other major openings as well. It seems correspondence chess at top level is dead as well and the only fun left is if both players collaborate to play a position outside of the very mainlines (which also happens in engine matches/tournaments).