Eelco de Groot wrote: ↑Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:00 pm
61.7% chance of win is not so bad. Black's doubled pawn does not look so strong, so white N against pawn or against two pawns, maybe some of those positions should be won.
For instance at the end of some PVs [d]8/p7/8/2bppk2/1p1p4/1P6/P1P1N3/2BK4 b - - in one line is at least +1.00
8/p7/8/2bppk2/1p1p4/1P6/P1P1N3/2BK4 b - -
Engine: Kaissa IV NoContempt (512 MB)
by T. Romstad, M. Costalba, J. Kiiski, G. Linscott
24/64 0:01 +0.51 1...a5 2.Bh6 Bd6 3.Bg7 Kg6 4.Bh8 Kf5
5.Nc1 Be7 6.Bg7 Bd6 7.Ke2 Kg6 8.Bh8 Kf5
9.Kd2 Be7 10.Bg7 Bf6 11.Bxf6 Kxf6
12.Nd3 Ke6 13.Nc5+ Kd6 (3.849.251) 2132
...
53/109 23:25 +1.11 1...Ke4 2.Bb2 Kf3 3.Nc1 Bd6 4.Nd3 a5
5.Kd2 Bb8 6.Nc5 Ba7 7.Ne6 Bb6 8.Ng5+ Kf4
9.Nf7 Bc7 10.Kd3 Kf5 11.Bc1 Ke6
12.Ng5+ Kf5 13.Ke2 Bd8 14.Nh3 Ke6 (3.192.885.612) 2271
54/108 24:55 +1.21-- 1...Ke4 2.Bb2 (3.374.682.909) 2255
54/108 27:29 +1.30-- 1...Ke4 2.Bb2 (3.688.603.847) 2236
(19. Nbd2 Rf8 20. Nh4 Ncxe5
21. fxe5 Nxe5 22. Ng6+ Nxg6 23. Bxg6 Be5 24. Qxh8 Bg3+
25. Kd1 Rxh8 26. Bd3 Bc8, as in Louis' line also)
That position was at the end of 27.Nf1 Bd6 28.g6 Kf6 29.b3 e5 30.Bb2 Bg4+ 31.Be2 Bxe2+ 32.Kxe2 Kxg6 33.Re1 Kf5 34.Nd2 Rh2+ 35.Kd1 Rf2 36.Rf1 Rxf1+ 37.Nxf1 Bc5 38.Ng3+ Kg4 39.Ne2 Kf5 40.Bc1 which was not a very deep line and it changed immediately after this, but the end position I think is won for White:
8/p7/8/2bppk2/1p1p4/1P6/P1P1N3/2BK4 b - -
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.
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63/110 120:46 +2.23 1...Ke4 2.Bb2 Ke3 3.Nc1 Bd6 4.Nd3 Kf3
5.Kd2 a5 6.Kd1 Bc7 7.Ke1 Bb8 8.Nc5 Ba7
9.Ne6 Bb6 10.Bc1 Ke4 11.Kd1 Kf5
12.Ng5 Bc5 13.Ke2 Be7 14.Nf3 Bf6 (15.450.314.642) 2132
64/110 158:58 +2.24 1...Ke4 2.Bb2 Ke3 3.Nc1 Bd6 4.Nd3 Kf3
5.Kd2 a5 6.Kd1 Bc7 7.Ke1 Bb8 8.Nc5 Ba7
9.Ne6 Bb6 10.Bc1 Ke4 11.Ke2 Kf5
12.Ng5 Bc5 13.Nh3 Ba7 14.Bd2 Bc5 (20.360.713.182) 2134
65/90 166:02 +2.24 1...Ke4 2.Bb2 Ke3 3.Nc1 Bd6 4.Nd3 Kf3
5.Kd2 a5 6.Kd1 Bc7 7.Ke1 Bb8 8.Nc5 Ba7
9.Ne6 Bb6 10.Bc1 Ke4 11.Ke2 Kf5
12.Ng5 Bc5 13.Nh3 Be7 14.Nf2 Ke6 (21.325.827.407) 2140
66/90 169:20 +2.24 1...Ke4 2.Bb2 Ke3 3.Nc1 Bd6 4.Nd3 Kf3
5.Kd2 a5 6.Kd1 Bc7 7.Ke1 Bb8 8.Nc5 Ba7
9.Ne6 Bb6 10.Bc1 Ke4 11.Ke2 Kf5
12.Ng5 Bc5 13.Nh3 Be7 14.Nf2 Ke6 (21.760.675.433) 2141
best move: Kf5-e4 time: 169:20.687 min n/s: 2.141.663 nodes: 21.760.675.433
In the line 29. b3 e5 30. Bb2 Kaissa give no more than 0.46 though, but no 30... Bc5
[d]2b4r/p7/3b1kP1/3pp3/1p1p4/1P1B4/PBP5/R2K1N2 b - -
Engine: Kaissa IV NoContempt (one thread, no tablebases, 512 MB)
by T. Romstad, M. Costalba, J. Kiiski, G. Linscott
36 10:48 +0.46 2...Rh4 3.Kd2 Bc5 4.a3 Be6 5.axb4 Bxb4+
6.c3 dxc3+ 7.Bxc3 Bxc3+ 8.Kxc3 Rh3
9.Kd2 e4 10.Bc2 Rf3 11.Ke1 Rc3
12.Bd1 Kxg6 13.Rxa7 Kf5 14.b4 Ke5
15.b5 Rc4 (1.070.067.855) 1650
36 10:48 +0.61 2...Bg4+ 3.Be2 Bxe2+ 4.Kxe2 Kxg6
5.Re1 Kf5 6.Nd2 Rh2+ 7.Kd1 Rf2 8.Rf1 Rxf1+
9.Nxf1 Be7 10.Ke2 Bh4 11.Nd2 Bf6
12.Nf3 a5 13.Bc1 e4 14.Ne1 Bg5
15.Bxg5 Kxg5 (1.070.067.855) 1650
36 10:48 +0.72 2...Kg7 3.a3 Bg4+ 4.Ke1 Rf8 5.Be2 Bf5
6.axb4 Bxb4+ 7.Kd1 a5 8.Ba3 Rc8
9.Bd3 Bxd3 10.cxd3 Rc3 11.Bxb4 axb4
12.Ke2 Kxg6 13.Nd2 e4 14.Ra5 e3
15.Nf3 Rc2+ (1.070.067.855) 1650
35 10:48 +0.68 2...Be6 3.Ke1 (1.070.067.855) 1650
35 10:48 +0.77 2...Rh6 3.Ke2 Rh4 4.a3 a5 5.axb4 Bxb4
6.Kf2 Rf4+ 7.Kg2 Rg4+ 8.Ng3 Be6
9.Rf1+ Ke7 10.Bf5 Bxf5 11.Rxf5 Ke6
12.Bc1 Rxg6 13.Rg5 Rxg5 14.Bxg5 e4
15.Kf2 Bc5 (1.070.067.855) 1650
35 10:48 +0.81 2...Bd7 3.Ke2 Be8 4.Re1 Bxg6 5.Bxg6 Kxg6
6.Nd2 Rh2+ 7.Kd1 Rf2 8.Rg1+ Kf6
9.Rf1 Rxf1+ 10.Nxf1 Be7 11.Ng3 Kg5
12.Ne2 Kg4 13.Nc1 Bd6 14.Ke2 Kf4
15.Kd2 Kf5 (1.070.067.855) 1650
After a while 30... Bc5 came back up again and the result at depth 53
[d]2b4r/p7/3b1kP1/3pp3/1p1p4/1P1B4/PBP5/R2K1N2 b - -
Engine: Kaissa IV NoContempt (512 MB)
by T. Romstad, M. Costalba, J. Kiiski, G. Linscott
53 698:51 +0.13 2...Bc5 3.a3 a5 4.axb4 Bxb4 5.Ke2 Rh4
6.Kf2 Be6 7.Ng3 Rf4+ 8.Kg1 Rg4
9.Rf1+ Ke7 10.Kh2 Rh4+ 11.Kg2 Rg4
12.Bf5 Bxf5 13.Rxf5 Ke6 14.Bc1 Rxg6
15.Rg5 Rxg5 (77.192.138.428) 1840
53 698:51 +0.61 2...Rh1 3.Ke2 Rh4 4.Ke1 Rg4 5.Rd1 Bf5
6.Bxf5 Kxf5 7.Nh2 Rxg6 8.Nf3 Be7
9.Kd2 Rg2+ 10.Kc1 Rg3 11.Rf1 Ke6
12.Ne1 a5 13.Kd1 Bf6 14.Nd3 Bg5
15.Bc1 Bxc1 (77.192.138.428) 1840
53 698:51 +0.64 2...Bf8 3.Ke1 Rh4 4.Rd1 Bh6 5.a3 Bf8
6.axb4 Bxb4+ 7.Kf2 Rf4+ 8.Kg2 Bf5
9.Ng3 Bxg6 10.Ra1 a5 11.Bxg6 Kxg6
12.Ba3 Bxa3 13.Rxa3 d3 14.cxd3 Rd4
15.Rxa5 Rxd3 (77.192.138.428) 1840
53 698:51 +0.66 2...Bg4+ {30...Bg4+ is what was played in PV leading to the first diagram and so could even lead to a lost position for Black}
3.Ke1 Bc7 4.Kf2 Bb6 5.Re1 e4
6.Be2 Bxe2 7.Kxe2 Kxg6 8.Rd1 Rc8
9.Bxd4 Rxc2+ 10.Ke3 Rc3+ 11.Kf2 Rc2+
12.Kg3 Bxd4 13.Rxd4 Rxa2 14.Ne3 Kf6
15.Rxd5 Rb2 (77.192.138.428) 1840
53 698:51 +0.72 2...Kg7 3.Kd2 Bc5 4.a3 a5 5.axb4 Bxb4+
6.c3 dxc3+ 7.Bxc3 Bxc3+ 8.Kxc3 Rh3
9.Kc2 e4 10.Be2 Be6 11.Rxa5 d4
12.Bc4 Bxc4 13.bxc4 Kxg6 14.Kd2 Rf3
15.Ke1 Rc3 (77.192.138.428) 1840
53 698:51 +0.80 2...Bd7 3.Kd2 Rh3 4.a4 Bg4 5.Re1 a5
6.Be2 Bf5 7.Kc1 Bxg6 8.Nd2 Rg3 9.Bb5 Bc5
10.Rf1+ Ke6 11.Nf3 Bh5 12.Nh4 Rh3
13.Nf5 Bf3 14.Ba6 Rh1 15.Rxh1 Bxh1 (77.192.138.428) 1840