" End of an Era" is coming?

[Nay Lin Tun]

https://ibb.co/Qd6LTtT
Today, I saw Leela vs SF on bonus game where new 30xxx nets start beating SF in small sample size.( specs, 24 cores CPU vs 2x 2070Ti, I think)

Current score:: 10.5 vs 9.5 ,in favour of Leela.

So, the rumour about " End of an Era" is a possibility in the near future.

[AdminX]

Time defeats everything that comes it's way. Question is 'How long will the new king reign?' and 'Who will it be?'

[Jouni]

Stockfish domination is getting boring now. SF has won ALL serious tournaments in last 2-3 years . No prizes to quess winner in TCEC 14 or CCC 3.

[Nay Lin Tun]

So far, so good! The results are more and more in favour of LCO.
(Correction, SF is on 24 threads, 12 cores)

13.5vs 11.5, Elo difference +28 elo +/- 140 elo error bar.
https://bonus.tcecbeta.club/

[corres]

So far, so good! The results are more and more in favour of LCO.
(Correction, SF is on 24 threads, 12 cores)

13.5vs 11.5, Elo difference +28 elo +/- 140 elo error bar.

The results reflect the difference in the power of hardware too.
Moreover the short time control is favorable for Leela.

[emadsen]

Current score:: 10.5 vs 9.5 ,in favour of Leela... End of an Era.

I'm amused by the vastly different level of rigor for developers and fans. Twenty games is good enough for some fans, ha ha.

[Damir]

Hi Erik

It is actually 40 games.... Nevertheless still too few games to find the winner. 400 is a more realistic number….

[Nay Lin Tun]

I use this formula for elo error bar, +/- 700/ square root of number of games.



For 100 games, there is +/- 70 elo err bar.
For 10000 games, there is +/-7 elo error bar.

If there is significant elo difference between two engines, like +1000 elo, a single game is pretty enough to tell who is better. (>95% chance that the stronger one will beat the weaker one in a single game). Many games are necessary only when the strength of two engines are very close though.

Btw, pgn is here, https://tcecbonus.club/event.pgn

[Nay Lin Tun]

Update, 18.5 vs 15.5 in favour of leela. +31 elo with +/- 120 error bar.
With more and more games, elo gap is wider and error bar is smaller.

[Damir]

seems like crap line for Leela now… is losing after 4 moves…..