CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

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chrisw
Posts: 4317
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by chrisw »

405 rounds

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th  8th....
Stockfish   3456  3439   0.46 0.42 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3456  3404   0.47 0.36 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini     3432  3400   0.07 0.21 0.69 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3363  3326   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.60 0.28 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3352  3300   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.33 0.46 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3310  3287   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.12 0.31 0.25 0.18 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3323  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.23 0.25 0.24 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3316  3276   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.21 0.25 0.31 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3299  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.15 0.24 0.28 0.26 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3240  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.58 0.24 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3238  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.26 0.48 0.15 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3198  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.11 0.33 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3191  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.26 0.24 0.16 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3192  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3173  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.12 0.21 0.31 0.19 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3180  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.37 0.17 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3157  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.35 0.23 0.12 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3162  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.19 0.28 0.26 0.13 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3120  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.28 0.32 0.16 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3103  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.42 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3095  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.23 0.61 0.02 0.00 0.00
Senpai      3046  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.90 0.07 0.01
Nirvana     3010  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.58 0.37
Crafty      2961  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.35 0.63
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Laskos
Posts: 10948
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by Laskos »

chrisw wrote: ↑Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:02 pm 405 rounds

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th  8th....
Stockfish   3456  3439   0.46 0.42 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3456  3404   0.47 0.36 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini     3432  3400   0.07 0.21 0.69 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3363  3326   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.60 0.28 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3352  3300   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.33 0.46 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3310  3287   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.12 0.31 0.25 0.18 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3323  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.23 0.25 0.24 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3316  3276   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.21 0.25 0.31 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3299  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.15 0.24 0.28 0.26 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3240  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.58 0.24 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3238  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.26 0.48 0.15 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3198  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.11 0.33 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3191  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.26 0.24 0.16 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3192  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3173  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.12 0.21 0.31 0.19 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3180  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.37 0.17 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3157  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.35 0.23 0.12 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3162  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.19 0.28 0.26 0.13 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3120  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.28 0.32 0.16 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3103  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.42 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3095  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.23 0.61 0.02 0.00 0.00
Senpai      3046  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.90 0.07 0.01
Nirvana     3010  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.58 0.37
Crafty      2961  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.35 0.63
I had by "gut feeling" at 19/46
SF: 50%
Houdini: 30%
Komodo: 18%

Same "gut feeling" at 36/46:
SF: 55%
Komodo: 35%
Houdini: 10%


I had a pretty tame behavior of expectations from early on to now, late stage. Komodo - Houdini game will be important, but towards the end every game might become important.
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Jouni
Posts: 3286
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:15 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by Jouni »

Komodo is rapid player: no losses after 37 games. Note 3 losses after only 16 games in TCEC! Or bad regression with version 2121.01.
Jouni
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todd
Posts: 56
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:09 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by todd »

Jouni wrote: ↑Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:35 pm Komodo is rapid player: no losses after 37 games. Note 3 losses after only 16 games in TCEC! Or bad regression with version 2121.01.
In CCCC, Ethereal and Lc0 had forced wins against it but did not find them (in Lc0-Komodo, Komodo even reported a win score of +250).

TCEC imbalanced openings also make losses more likely.
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Laskos
Posts: 10948
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by Laskos »

Laskos wrote: ↑Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:19 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:02 pm 405 rounds

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th  8th....
Stockfish   3456  3439   0.46 0.42 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3456  3404   0.47 0.36 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini     3432  3400   0.07 0.21 0.69 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3363  3326   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.60 0.28 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3352  3300   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.33 0.46 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3310  3287   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.12 0.31 0.25 0.18 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3323  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.23 0.25 0.24 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3316  3276   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.21 0.25 0.31 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3299  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.15 0.24 0.28 0.26 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3240  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.58 0.24 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3238  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.26 0.48 0.15 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3198  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.11 0.33 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3191  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.26 0.24 0.16 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3192  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3173  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.12 0.21 0.31 0.19 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3180  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.37 0.17 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3157  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.35 0.23 0.12 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3162  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.19 0.28 0.26 0.13 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3120  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.28 0.32 0.16 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3103  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.42 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3095  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.23 0.61 0.02 0.00 0.00
Senpai      3046  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.90 0.07 0.01
Nirvana     3010  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.58 0.37
Crafty      2961  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.35 0.63
I had by "gut feeling" at 19/46
SF: 50%
Houdini: 30%
Komodo: 18%

Same "gut feeling" at 36/46:
SF: 55%
Komodo: 35%
Houdini: 10%


I had a pretty tame behavior of expectations from early on to now, late stage. Komodo - Houdini game will be important, but towards the end every game might become important.
The things begin to settle a bit, at least for Houdini. In fact a bit overdue, SF would probably had to distance itself a bit by now, if there were no statistical flukes.

37/46
SF: 70%
Komodo: 25%
Houdini: 5%
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chrisw
Posts: 4317
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by chrisw »

Laskos wrote: ↑Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:17 pm
Laskos wrote: ↑Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:19 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:02 pm 405 rounds

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th  8th....
Stockfish   3456  3439   0.46 0.42 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3456  3404   0.47 0.36 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini     3432  3400   0.07 0.21 0.69 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3363  3326   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.60 0.28 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3352  3300   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.33 0.46 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3310  3287   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.12 0.31 0.25 0.18 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3323  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.23 0.25 0.24 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3316  3276   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.21 0.25 0.31 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3299  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.15 0.24 0.28 0.26 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3240  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.58 0.24 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3238  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.26 0.48 0.15 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3198  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.11 0.33 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3191  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.26 0.24 0.16 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3192  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3173  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.12 0.21 0.31 0.19 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3180  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.37 0.17 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3157  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.35 0.23 0.12 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3162  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.19 0.28 0.26 0.13 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3120  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.28 0.32 0.16 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3103  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.42 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3095  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.23 0.61 0.02 0.00 0.00
Senpai      3046  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.90 0.07 0.01
Nirvana     3010  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.58 0.37
Crafty      2961  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.35 0.63
I had by "gut feeling" at 19/46
SF: 50%
Houdini: 30%
Komodo: 18%

Same "gut feeling" at 36/46:
SF: 55%
Komodo: 35%
Houdini: 10%


I had a pretty tame behavior of expectations from early on to now, late stage. Komodo - Houdini game will be important, but towards the end every game might become important.
The things begin to settle a bit, at least for Houdini. In fact a bit overdue, SF would probably had to distance itself a bit by now, if there were no statistical flukes.

37/46
SF: 70%
Komodo: 25%
Houdini: 5%

first ten or so, correlate closely to the original CCCC prior elos

460 rounds

Code: Select all

Stockfish   3461  3439   0.79 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3456  3404   0.20 0.71 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini     3430  3400   0.01 0.11 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3365  3326   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67 0.30 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3350  3300   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.61 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3324  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.41 0.28 0.17 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3315  3276   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.31 0.30 0.20 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3296  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.12 0.22 0.30 0.33 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3287  3287   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.19 0.32 0.39 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3236  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.76 0.15 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3228  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.41 0.32 0.11 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3209  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.35 0.36 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3191  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.16 0.39 0.24 0.13 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3186  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.20 0.38 0.25 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3173  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.23 0.39 0.13 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3190  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.13 0.46 0.26 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3168  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.25 0.46 0.15 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3155  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.18 0.53 0.17 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3109  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.13 0.48 0.34 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3111  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.30 0.56 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3079  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.90 0.04 0.00 0.00
Senpai      3052  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.93 0.03 0.00
Nirvana     3018  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.84 0.14
Crafty      2960  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.86
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User avatar
Laskos
Posts: 10948
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by Laskos »

chrisw wrote: ↑Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:31 am
first ten or so, correlate closely to the original CCCC prior elos

460 rounds

Code: Select all

Stockfish   3461  3439   0.79 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3456  3404   0.20 0.71 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini     3430  3400   0.01 0.11 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3365  3326   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67 0.30 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3350  3300   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.61 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3324  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.41 0.28 0.17 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3315  3276   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.31 0.30 0.20 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3296  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.12 0.22 0.30 0.33 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3287  3287   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.19 0.32 0.39 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3236  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.76 0.15 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3228  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.41 0.32 0.11 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3209  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.35 0.36 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3191  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.16 0.39 0.24 0.13 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3186  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.20 0.38 0.25 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3173  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.23 0.39 0.13 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3190  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.13 0.46 0.26 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3168  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.25 0.46 0.15 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3155  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.18 0.53 0.17 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3109  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.13 0.48 0.34 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3111  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.30 0.56 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3079  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.90 0.04 0.00 0.00
Senpai      3052  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.93 0.03 0.00
Nirvana     3018  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.84 0.14
Crafty      2960  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.86
Yes, and by now our predictions agree well, as expected, although at this stage one would better trust your results, as I am barely considering SB, white-black to play, and other criteria. By now, my "predictions" are SF: 78%, Komodo 20%, Houdini 2%. Very close to your ones, just a bit more compressed. By now your simulations are finally better than my enlightened gut feeling :lol:.
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chrisw
Posts: 4317
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by chrisw »

Laskos wrote: ↑Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:53 am
chrisw wrote: ↑Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:31 am
first ten or so, correlate closely to the original CCCC prior elos

460 rounds

Code: Select all

Stockfish   3461  3439   0.79 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3456  3404   0.20 0.71 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini     3430  3400   0.01 0.11 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3365  3326   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67 0.30 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3350  3300   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.61 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3324  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.41 0.28 0.17 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3315  3276   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.31 0.30 0.20 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3296  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.12 0.22 0.30 0.33 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3287  3287   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.19 0.32 0.39 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3236  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.76 0.15 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3228  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.41 0.32 0.11 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3209  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.35 0.36 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3191  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.16 0.39 0.24 0.13 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3186  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.20 0.38 0.25 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3173  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.23 0.39 0.13 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3190  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.13 0.46 0.26 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3168  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.25 0.46 0.15 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3155  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.18 0.53 0.17 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3109  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.13 0.48 0.34 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3111  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.30 0.56 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3079  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.90 0.04 0.00 0.00
Senpai      3052  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.93 0.03 0.00
Nirvana     3018  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.84 0.14
Crafty      2960  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.86
Yes, and by now our predictions agree well, as expected, although at this stage one would better trust your results, as I am barely considering SB, white-black to play, and other criteria. By now, my "predictions" are SF: 78%, Komodo 20%, Houdini 2%. Very close to your ones, just a bit more compressed. By now your simulations are finally better than my enlightened gut feeling :lol:.
I never implemented white-black to play weighting (because had to change the code (from TCEC) to read CCCC format and building a black-white history was too much bother)

My first one after 100 rounds or so ...
I'm not going to claim bragging rights because a) the prediction code for the (randomised) result of each game was actually broken and b) as it turns out, the ordering matches very well to the original prior elos and c) the sim changed its mind after some games later and put Stockfish 3rd.

Code: Select all

Engine     Tournament Initial  First   Second  Third   Fourth  Fifth   Sixth   Seventh Eighth
Stockfish      3439   3439     0.448   0.305   0.148   0.056   0.026   0.010   0.004   0.001   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Komodo         3404   3404     0.365   0.317   0.180   0.074   0.038   0.015   0.006   0.003   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Houdini        3400   3400     0.133   0.227   0.290   0.183   0.077   0.043   0.024   0.011   0.008   0.003   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Fire           3326   3326     0.020   0.054   0.118   0.177   0.183   0.148   0.112   0.071   0.057   0.032   0.016   0.007   0.003   0.001   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Shredder       3287   3287     0.017   0.036   0.083   0.132   0.168   0.154   0.131   0.139   0.048   0.039   0.025   0.015   0.006   0.003   0.002   0.001   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Lc0            3300   3300     0.006   0.025   0.070   0.150   0.141   0.151   0.142   0.096   0.094   0.059   0.032   0.016   0.008   0.004   0.002   0.001   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Ethereal       3283   3283     0.006   0.022   0.063   0.096   0.163   0.166   0.145   0.109   0.096   0.061   0.035   0.019   0.010   0.005   0.002   0.001   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Andscacs       3244   3244     0.002   0.003   0.010   0.031   0.035   0.058   0.087   0.139   0.124   0.139   0.122   0.089   0.061   0.038   0.024   0.016   0.008   0.005   0.003   0.001   0.002   0.001   0.000   0.000
Fizbo          3259   3259     0.001   0.005   0.018   0.047   0.070   0.099   0.125   0.131   0.153   0.125   0.090   0.057   0.034   0.020   0.011   0.006   0.004   0.002   0.001   0.001   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000
Booot          3276   3276     0.001   0.004   0.016   0.041   0.071   0.100   0.122   0.129   0.151   0.127   0.093   0.058   0.035   0.022   0.012   0.007   0.004   0.002   0.001   0.001   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000
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Laskos
Posts: 10948
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by Laskos »

After 40/46 played, things pretty much clarified. A bit overdue, though, on average.
SF not only has a full point lead, it has a better SB and plays weaker opponents than Komodo in the last 6 games.
So, SF 95% to be first, Komodo 5%.

In the first 8 to go through, Shredder, although 9th, still has some 15-20% chances to go through, otherwise the first 8 will be as they are now.
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chrisw
Posts: 4317
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by chrisw »

Laskos wrote: ↑Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:56 am After 40/46 played, things pretty much clarified. A bit overdue, though, on average.
SF not only has a full point lead, it has a better SB and plays weaker opponents than Komodo in the last 6 games.
So, SF 95% to be first, Komodo 5%.

In the first 8 to go through, Shredder, although 9th, still has some 15-20% chances to go through, otherwise the first 8 will be as they are now.
8th place looks relatively even, between Shredder and Andsacs. They are on equal points, but Shredder has a game in hand.
Andsacs has to play Ethereal(6), Booot(7), Arasan(15) and Crafty(24) which is presumably an easier pathway than Shredder has: Komodo(2), Houdini(3), LC0(5), Fritz(12), Nirvana(23)

498 rounds so far

Code: Select all

Stockfish   3467  3439   0.93 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3456  3404   0.07 0.89 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini     3428  3400   0.00 0.05 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3356  3300   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.43 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3369  3326   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3335  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.71 0.24 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3319  3276   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.59 0.12 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3283  3287   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.50 0.40 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3286  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.35 0.54 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3237  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.69 0.20 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3218  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.49 0.31 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3236  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.29 0.51 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3186  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.67 0.16 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3180  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.14 0.50 0.29 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3183  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.30 0.53 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3194  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.67 0.19 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3168  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.18 0.66 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3155  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.13 0.81 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3106  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.80 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3095  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.83 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3068  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.94 0.04 0.00 0.00
Senpai      3048  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.93 0.02 0.00
Nirvana     3023  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.95 0.03
Crafty      2961  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.97
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