CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

[chrisw]

CCCC results predictor 220 rounds so far

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Houdini     3468  3400   0.69 0.22 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish   3434  3439   0.21 0.45 0.25 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3424  3404   0.09 0.27 0.43 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3361  3287   0.01 0.04 0.14 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3344  3300   0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.26 0.23 0.17 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3346  3326   0.00 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3332  3276   0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3282  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.25 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3248  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.21 0.23 0.16 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3292  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3219  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3178  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3196  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3170  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3243  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3171  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3147  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3185  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3146  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.22 0.17 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3105  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.04 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3093  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.44 0.08 0.01 0.00
Senpai      3041  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.68 0.15 0.04
Crafty      2973  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.47 0.42
Nirvana     2989  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.37 0.54

[JJJ]

Yes know Houdini seems favorite for first spot, even if Stockfish is stronger.
Leela has a nice chance to finished #4 because it is his real actual strenght.

[Laskos]

CCCC results predictor 220 rounds so far

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Houdini     3468  3400   0.69 0.22 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish   3434  3439   0.21 0.45 0.25 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3424  3404   0.09 0.27 0.43 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3361  3287   0.01 0.04 0.14 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3344  3300   0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.26 0.23 0.17 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3346  3326   0.00 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3332  3276   0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3282  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.25 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3248  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.21 0.23 0.16 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3292  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3219  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3178  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3196  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3170  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3243  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3171  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3147  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3185  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3146  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.22 0.17 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3105  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.04 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3093  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.44 0.08 0.01 0.00
Senpai      3041  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.68 0.15 0.04
Crafty      2973  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.47 0.42
Nirvana     2989  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.37 0.54

LOL

This is practically the current standing after 19/46 games each engine played. Houdini is 1 point ahead of SF, and 1.5 ahead of Komodo. And you give 69%, 21%, 9% to finish first respectively?? According to you, you should give me 2:1 if I bet against Houdini. My "gut feeling": 50% SF, 30% Houdini, 18% Komodo, 2% other. If I give you 1:1 against Houdini, will it make a deal? It is much better deal for you than 2:1 you predict.

PS You gave 24% for Ethereal to finish in the first three in the TCEC Premiere Division. Here it seems a bit different story... right?

[Milos]

CCCC results predictor 220 rounds so far

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Houdini     3468  3400   0.69 0.22 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish   3434  3439   0.21 0.45 0.25 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3424  3404   0.09 0.27 0.43 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3361  3287   0.01 0.04 0.14 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3344  3300   0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.26 0.23 0.17 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3346  3326   0.00 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3332  3276   0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3282  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.25 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3248  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.21 0.23 0.16 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3292  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3219  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3178  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3196  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3170  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3243  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3171  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3147  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3185  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3146  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.22 0.17 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3105  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.04 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3093  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.44 0.08 0.01 0.00
Senpai      3041  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.68 0.15 0.04
Crafty      2973  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.47 0.42
Nirvana     2989  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.37 0.54

LOL

This is practically the current standing after 19/46 games each engine played. Houdini is 1 point ahead of SF, and 1.5 ahead of Komodo. And you give 69%, 21%, 9% to finish first respectively?? According to you, you should give me 2:1 if I bet against Houdini. My "gut feeling": 50% SF, 30% Houdini, 18% Komodo, 2% other. If I give you 1:1 against Houdini, will it make a deal? It is much better deal for you than 2:1 you predict.

It is obviously broken. He puts like 90% weight to the games played and 10% to the primer i.e. CCRL rating.

[chrisw]

CCCC results predictor 220 rounds so far

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Houdini     3468  3400   0.69 0.22 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish   3434  3439   0.21 0.45 0.25 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3424  3404   0.09 0.27 0.43 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3361  3287   0.01 0.04 0.14 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3344  3300   0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.26 0.23 0.17 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3346  3326   0.00 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3332  3276   0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3282  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.25 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3248  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.21 0.23 0.16 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3292  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3219  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3178  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3196  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3170  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3243  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3171  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3147  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3185  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3146  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.22 0.17 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3105  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.04 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3093  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.44 0.08 0.01 0.00
Senpai      3041  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.68 0.15 0.04
Crafty      2973  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.47 0.42
Nirvana     2989  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.37 0.54

LOL

This is practically the current standing after 19/46 games each engine played. Houdini is 1 point ahead of SF, and 1.5 ahead of Komodo. And you give 69%, 21%, 9% to finish first respectively?? According to you, you should give me 2:1 if I bet against Houdini. My "gut feeling": 50% SF, 30% Houdini, 18% Komodo, 2% other. If I give you 1:1 against Houdini, will it make a deal? It is much better deal for you than 2:1 you predict.

It is obviously broken. He puts like 90% weight to the games played and 10% to the primer i.e. CCRL rating.

haha guys, it's only a game! Although I am now expecting the Nobel Peace Prize for putting you two onto the same agreement page. I did think shall I do as per Milos suggestion yesterday or before and go write some more code to grab and process the CCRL elos and modify/reduce game/elo effect, but I thought nah! too much work, and anyway, whatever one does will get criticised one way or another, so why bother. This CCCC only lasts a couple more days, or so, and, if TCEC is anything to go by, the cross table and schedule data formats will change requiring yet more coding, so not really worth my effort.

Anyway, this gives you something to argue over, you know the assumptions, and you can announce your own projections.

Laskos, "I", as in "your" am not giving anybody any percentage chances, I wrote some software which takes some games already played, and some elo ratings and Monte Carlos up some results tables splattered with elo-randomised fantasy results of games yet to be played. The stats then come out as they do, I decline to own them. Milos, my name is not "he". There is no right or wrong way to do it, it's a projection, based on assumptions, which may or may not turn out to be "correct", even if they turn out to be "not correct", I defy you to *prove* what "correct" would be. 20/20 hindsight back propagation would just be anecdotal, would it not? Laskos, what happened to the old bet? My jar of honey against your Eastern Europe food speciality for a top three upset in TCEC?

[fern]

So finally, Chris, you got bored of the peaceful life of French landscape and here are you again. Not only that, but making tests, etc. Who knows, maybe even you are going to surprise us with a CSTAL III.

I have seen a lot, but not enough yet regards
Fern

[Laskos]

Laskos, what happened to the old bet? My jar of honey against your Eastern Europe food speciality for a top three upset in TCEC?

I was not betting on general "upset", but about particular Ethereal finishing in top 3 of Premiere Division, giving even IIRC even 7:1 odds against it to happen, but you didn't reply. I am supposed to imagine that you will accept any bet, after the results are known and favor you? A bit strange way of betting, I am not sure many betting houses play by these rules.

[JJJ]

Lc0 is now on part with Shredder for #4 spot and I think it will take this spot. After all, many test have shown Lc0 being the true number 4 with fair condition and in this CCCC it is also the case.

So lc0 for the #4 spot ! Your simulator is really innacurate. CCRL elo matters way more than the rating in during the tournament, except if the tournament reach his ends.

[Laskos]

Lc0 is now on part with Shredder for #4 spot and I think it will take this spot. After all, many test have shown Lc0 being the true number 4 with fair condition and in this CCCC it is also the case.

So lc0 for the #4 spot ! Your simulator is really innacurate. CCRL elo matters way more than the rating in during the tournament, except if the tournament reach his ends.

Sure, the rating in these particular conditions could be estimated as say
0.5*x*TP + (1-0.5*x)*CCRL

x is the fraction of games played out 46
TP is tournament performance
CCRL is the CCRL rating

This way the rating is always more determined by CCRL rating, from say 3 times more importance in the middle (23/46) of the tournament, to equal contribution of TP and CCRL at the end. The rating is then applied to remaining games, and sure starting with the current points in tournament.
This is just an example. I am countryside on vacation right now, so I can do no simulations, just write here mostly on my phone.
Lc0 estimates are very hard, the conditions matter a lot, CCRL is irrelevant, but as you observed, CCCC seem to be a fair tournament for Lc0 (pity it doesn't scale much beyond 2 GPUs), and in my fair conditions Lc0 is the fourth engine (at worst fifth, behind the last Fire), which is close to what we observe here. TCEC conditions were awful for Lc0.

[Uri Blass]

Lc0 is now on part with Shredder for #4 spot and I think it will take this spot. After all, many test have shown Lc0 being the true number 4 with fair condition and in this CCCC it is also the case.

So lc0 for the #4 spot ! Your simulator is really innacurate. CCRL elo matters way more than the rating in during the tournament, except if the tournament reach his ends.

I do not know why you consider CCCC as fair conditions for LC0
I think that playing from the opening position without using books give an advantage for LC0 that is trained to play the opening well based on millions of games unlike other engines.

If you play only from the opening position then
maybe it is more fair if all authors of engines can send also an opening book(at least a book that is based on the analysis of the engine).

It may be useful to have an automatic tool to build an opening book that prepare an engine for a tournament at some time control from the opening position.
It is an open question what is the best way to practically do it but the idea is to use the analysis of the same engine that needs a book at multi-pv mode and learn from the tree of moves and evaluations what is the moves to include in book for white and book for black.