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Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator
Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:26 am
by chrisw
28 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 77%
Chiron 65%
Fizbo 32%
ChessBrainVB 14%
Laser 6%
Code: Select all
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3347 3334 0.489 0.774
Chiron 3323 3288 0.331 0.652
Fizbo 3298 3287 0.116 0.327
ChessBrainVB 3271 3279 0.043 0.148
Laser 3243 3226 0.015 0.066
Fritz 3219 3226 0.005 0.025
Jonny 3150 3140 0.000 0.001
Booot 3217 3272 0.001 0.007
Adjustment suggestions/advice on initial elos welcomed
Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator
Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:16 pm
by JJJ
seems realistic to me.
Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator
Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:01 pm
by whereagles
Ethereal on a RAMPAGE!
Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:23 am
by chrisw
40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%
Code: Select all
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3374 3334 0.562 0.909
Chiron 3351 3288 0.392 0.835
Fizbo 3301 3287 0.040 0.193
Laser 3247 3226 0.004 0.030
Fritz 3231 3226 0.001 0.014
ChessBrainVB 3247 3279 0.001 0.016
Jonny 3139 3140 0.000 0.000
Booot 3218 3272 0.000 0.002
Based on some not very well researched estimate elos, chances of winning the Premier Division would then be:
Code: Select all
Stockfish 3441 3441 0.572
Komodo 3405 3405 0.186
Houdini 3400 3400 0.159
Ethereal 3374 3374 0.055
Chiron 3351 3351 0.019
Fire 3326 3326 0.005
Ginkgo 3322 3322 0.004
Andscacs 3245 3245 0.000
Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:52 am
by Guenther
chrisw wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:23 am
40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%
...
It seems Chiron has improved quite a lot since its last release!
Of course it's a long time too (since 2017/01).
Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:59 am
by Laskos
chrisw wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:23 am
40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%
Code: Select all
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3374 3334 0.562 0.909
Chiron 3351 3288 0.392 0.835
Fizbo 3301 3287 0.040 0.193
Laser 3247 3226 0.004 0.030
Fritz 3231 3226 0.001 0.014
ChessBrainVB 3247 3279 0.001 0.016
Jonny 3139 3140 0.000 0.000
Booot 3218 3272 0.000 0.002
Based on some not very well researched estimate elos, chances of winning the Premier Division would then be:
Code: Select all
Stockfish 3441 3441 0.572
Komodo 3405 3405 0.186
Houdini 3400 3400 0.159
Ethereal 3374 3374 0.055
Chiron 3351 3351 0.019
Fire 3326 3326 0.005
Ginkgo 3322 3322 0.004
Andscacs 3245 3245 0.000
About the second table. First, you seem to put Ethereal and Chiron too high. Second, generally, that in 56 games each, the winner is not one of the big three, seems to be a very slim possibility, much smaller than 8%. Third, Stockfish to win seems in above 70% to me. It has now "contempt" and is not underperforming in these round-robins with weaker engines. Gut feeling: SF say 72%, Kom 15%, Hou (if not updated) 11%, rest 2%.
And why not going further: SF above 90% to win the TCEC 13 (if Hou is not updated).
Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:36 pm
by chrisw
Guenther wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:52 am
chrisw wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:23 am
40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%
...
It seems Chiron has improved quite a lot since its last release!
Of course it's a long time too (since 2017/01).
Yes, I noted the big increases made in the years before that and figured, since it was entered into WCCC and it has a new serial number for TCEC that it had been seriously worked on this year, and took a guess at bumping its alleged published elo by 90 pts
Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:40 pm
by chrisw
Laskos wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:59 am
chrisw wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:23 am
40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%
Code: Select all
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3374 3334 0.562 0.909
Chiron 3351 3288 0.392 0.835
Fizbo 3301 3287 0.040 0.193
Laser 3247 3226 0.004 0.030
Fritz 3231 3226 0.001 0.014
ChessBrainVB 3247 3279 0.001 0.016
Jonny 3139 3140 0.000 0.000
Booot 3218 3272 0.000 0.002
Based on some not very well researched estimate elos, chances of winning the Premier Division would then be:
Code: Select all
Stockfish 3441 3441 0.572
Komodo 3405 3405 0.186
Houdini 3400 3400 0.159
Ethereal 3374 3374 0.055
Chiron 3351 3351 0.019
Fire 3326 3326 0.005
Ginkgo 3322 3322 0.004
Andscacs 3245 3245 0.000
About the second table. First, you seem to put Ethereal and Chiron too high. Second, generally, that in 56 games each, the winner is not one of the big three, seems to be a very slim possibility, much smaller than 8%. Third, Stockfish to win seems in above 70% to me. It has now "contempt" and is not underperforming in these round-robins with weaker engines. Gut feeling: SF say 72%, Kom 15%, Hou (if not updated) 11%, rest 2%.
And why not going further: SF above 90% to win the TCEC 13 (if Hou is not updated).
Could be. Ethereal elo is bumped by the successes so far, and I took a punt on Chiron having been worked on and made annual progress as it made in last years.
The other Premier league figures are just CCRL-grabbed IIRC, so will take a closer look at those next few days.
Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:32 pm
by todd
Premier also has more imbalanced openings than previous stages, which should accentuate rating differences to some extent.
Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:31 pm
by cdani
Laskos wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:59 am
chrisw wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:23 am
I think and I hope that Andscacs will not be last. 0.94 has no elo at CCRL for the moment. Also I have some improvements.