TCEC Division 3 results simulator

[frankp]

The game leela disconnected might be replayed if it is a server problem. And now Leela is winning bobcat.

Leela - Hannibal, right? If replayed, might even win this one, and in this case would change things seriously.

Oh wow, did LC0 disconnect? That would indeed changes things if replayed, would be temporarily in second place in cross table.

Affects the Sim prediction, LC0 jumps to 28% promotion chance

90 games played ...

Code: Select all

Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3333         3300       1.000  1.000
Arasan         3169         3124       0.000  0.494
lc0            3166         3100       0.000  0.287
Pedone         3149         3092       0.000  0.185
DeusX          3121         3130       0.000  0.034
Hannibal       3089         3158       0.000  0.000
Nemorino       3083         3099       0.000  0.000
Bobcat         2919         3029       0.000  0.000

I think the leela fans prefer "leela was disconnected", which if it is the case may allow the game to be replayed according to the rules.

[JJJ]

The game leela disconnected might be replayed if it is a server problem. And now Leela is winning bobcat.

Leela - Hannibal, right? If replayed, might even win this one, and in this case would change things seriously.

Yes. But it is two big if.

[Laskos]

The game leela disconnected might be replayed if it is a server problem. And now Leela is winning bobcat.

Leela - Hannibal, right? If replayed, might even win this one, and in this case would change things seriously.

Oh wow, did LC0 disconnect? That would indeed changes things if replayed, would be temporarily in second place in cross table.

Affects the Sim prediction, LC0 jumps to 28% promotion chance

90 games played ...

Code: Select all

Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3333         3300       1.000  1.000
Arasan         3169         3124       0.000  0.494
lc0            3166         3100       0.000  0.287
Pedone         3149         3092       0.000  0.185
DeusX          3121         3130       0.000  0.034
Hannibal       3089         3158       0.000  0.000
Nemorino       3083         3099       0.000  0.000
Bobcat         2919         3029       0.000  0.000

Now you see that the gut feeling of an enlightened person like Kai is more stable than Sim wild oscillations, which are a sign of a flaw, at least until the last several games. It's hard to comprehend oscillations from 3% to 30% of Sim with many games remaining, while Kai's 10% to 20% oscillations are comprehensible by an educated person .

[Guenther]

I think the leela fans prefer "leela was disconnected", which if it is the case may allow the game to be replayed according to the rules.

I want to add that also Hannibal 'disconnected' just a few games before this game.
No one questions though, if it really was its fault. (missing fan hype?)
May be Edsel can say something on this matter after he had seen the logs.

[chrisw]

The game leela disconnected might be replayed if it is a server problem. And now Leela is winning bobcat.

Leela - Hannibal, right? If replayed, might even win this one, and in this case would change things seriously.

Oh wow, did LC0 disconnect? That would indeed changes things if replayed, would be temporarily in second place in cross table.

Affects the Sim prediction, LC0 jumps to 28% promotion chance

90 games played ...

Code: Select all

Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3333         3300       1.000  1.000
Arasan         3169         3124       0.000  0.494
lc0            3166         3100       0.000  0.287
Pedone         3149         3092       0.000  0.185
DeusX          3121         3130       0.000  0.034
Hannibal       3089         3158       0.000  0.000
Nemorino       3083         3099       0.000  0.000
Bobcat         2919         3029       0.000  0.000

Now you see that the gut feeling of an enlightened person like Kai is more stable than Sim wild oscillations, which are a sign of a flaw, at least until the last several games. It's hard to comprehend oscillations from 3% to 30% of Sim with many games remaining, while Kai's 10% to 20% oscillations are comprehensible by an educated person .

hahaha!! I diagnosed my Sim as manic depressive already

[Laskos]

The game leela disconnected might be replayed if it is a server problem. And now Leela is winning bobcat.

Leela - Hannibal, right? If replayed, might even win this one, and in this case would change things seriously.

Oh wow, did LC0 disconnect? That would indeed changes things if replayed, would be temporarily in second place in cross table.

Affects the Sim prediction, LC0 jumps to 28% promotion chance

90 games played ...

Code: Select all

Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3333         3300       1.000  1.000
Arasan         3169         3124       0.000  0.494
lc0            3166         3100       0.000  0.287
Pedone         3149         3092       0.000  0.185
DeusX          3121         3130       0.000  0.034
Hannibal       3089         3158       0.000  0.000
Nemorino       3083         3099       0.000  0.000
Bobcat         2919         3029       0.000  0.000

Now you see that the gut feeling of an enlightened person like Kai is more stable than Sim wild oscillations, which are a sign of a flaw, at least until the last several games. It's hard to comprehend oscillations from 3% to 30% of Sim with many games remaining, while Kai's 10% to 20% oscillations are comprehensible by an educated person .

hahaha!! I diagnosed my Sim as manic depressive already

[chrisw]

The game leela disconnected might be replayed if it is a server problem. And now Leela is winning bobcat.

Leela - Hannibal, right? If replayed, might even win this one, and in this case would change things seriously.

Oh wow, did LC0 disconnect? That would indeed changes things if replayed, would be temporarily in second place in cross table.

Affects the Sim prediction, LC0 jumps to 28% promotion chance

90 games played ...

Code: Select all

Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3333         3300       1.000  1.000
Arasan         3169         3124       0.000  0.494
lc0            3166         3100       0.000  0.287
Pedone         3149         3092       0.000  0.185
DeusX          3121         3130       0.000  0.034
Hannibal       3089         3158       0.000  0.000
Nemorino       3083         3099       0.000  0.000
Bobcat         2919         3029       0.000  0.000

Now you see that the gut feeling of an enlightened person like Kai is more stable than Sim wild oscillations, which are a sign of a flaw, at least until the last several games. It's hard to comprehend oscillations from 3% to 30% of Sim with many games remaining, while Kai's 10% to 20% oscillations are comprehensible by an educated person .

hahaha!! I diagnosed my Sim as manic depressive already

I cut the tournament rating adjuster back a bit, but it doesn't make much difference. At this stage, played 90, 22 to go, the manic changes in prediction by results so far are going to happen. "Games so far" predominate.
Each game in a sim is predicted by elo, and the "best" way to produce a Kai gut prediction of higher LC0 chances is simply to increase the LC0 initial elo estimate.

The other reason for the apparent manic behaves is the performance of Ethereal. That's at top spot, and rightly gets almost 100% chance of first place, and 0% chance of second. So the rest of the pack are all competing for a share of 100 pts, whereas in a field with no clear outright winner, their score would be their share of their 1st place chance plus their second place chance, which a) has the effect of increased "sharing" out of pts by the addition process and b) more pts to share. Those effects tend to spread the range and increase the numbers.

Sim accounts for everything (that I can think of, which may be broken of course)

[chrisw]

Situation after Arasan just beat DX (with LC0 disconnect/server crash included)
Arasan 76%
Pedone 15%
LC0 5%

Code: Select all

Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3315         3300       1.000  1.000
Arasan         3150         3124       0.000  0.764
Pedone         3117         3092       0.000  0.158
lc0            3116         3100       0.000  0.055
Hannibal       3140         3158       0.000  0.014
DeusX          3120         3130       0.000  0.009
Nemorino       3092         3099       0.000  0.000
Bobcat         2982         3029       0.000  0.000

And same situation, but with LCO given the replay, and winning
Arasan 66%
Pedone 11%
LC0 21%

Code: Select all

Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3315         3300       1.000  1.000
Arasan         3150         3124       0.000  0.664
lc0            3128         3100       0.000  0.214
Pedone         3117         3092       0.000  0.116
DeusX          3120         3130       0.000  0.005
Hannibal       3127         3158       0.000  0.000
Nemorino       3092         3099       0.000  0.000
Bobcat         2982         3029       0.000  0.000

[Laskos]

The game leela disconnected might be replayed if it is a server problem. And now Leela is winning bobcat.

Leela - Hannibal, right? If replayed, might even win this one, and in this case would change things seriously.

Oh wow, did LC0 disconnect? That would indeed changes things if replayed, would be temporarily in second place in cross table.

Affects the Sim prediction, LC0 jumps to 28% promotion chance

90 games played ...

Code: Select all

Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3333         3300       1.000  1.000
Arasan         3169         3124       0.000  0.494
lc0            3166         3100       0.000  0.287
Pedone         3149         3092       0.000  0.185
DeusX          3121         3130       0.000  0.034
Hannibal       3089         3158       0.000  0.000
Nemorino       3083         3099       0.000  0.000
Bobcat         2919         3029       0.000  0.000

Now you see that the gut feeling of an enlightened person like Kai is more stable than Sim wild oscillations, which are a sign of a flaw, at least until the last several games. It's hard to comprehend oscillations from 3% to 30% of Sim with many games remaining, while Kai's 10% to 20% oscillations are comprehensible by an educated person .

hahaha!! I diagnosed my Sim as manic depressive already

I cut the tournament rating adjuster back a bit, but it doesn't make much difference. At this stage, played 90, 22 to go, the manic changes in prediction by results so far are going to happen. "Games so far" predominate.
Each game in a sim is predicted by elo, and the "best" way to produce a Kai gut prediction of higher LC0 chances is simply to increase the LC0 initial elo estimate.

The other reason for the apparent manic behaves is the performance of Ethereal. That's at top spot, and rightly gets almost 100% chance of first place, and 0% chance of second. So the rest of the pack are all competing for a share of 100 pts, whereas in a field with no clear outright winner, their score would be their share of their 1st place chance plus their second place chance, which a) has the effect of increased "sharing" out of pts by the addition process and b) more pts to share. Those effects tend to spread the range and increase the numbers.

Sim accounts for everything (that I can think of, which may be broken of course)

Yes, with only 5 games to play and one eligible place, oscillations are inevitable by now. Arasan just beat Deus, so Deus is out by now (1%). Lc0 still has some chances, but IMO no higher than say 8%. That is, if no replay of that disconnected for unknown reasons game of Lc0.

[chrisw]

looks like they will call it a server disconnect, so - replay game presumably.

Do they play it now, or at the end?