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Is cutechess-cli's rating interval 1 sigma or 2 sigma?
Posted: Fri May 18, 2018 5:29 pm
by fierz
I can't see anything on the rating table that cutechess-cli produces in its documentation. Does anyone know if the +- corresponds to a 1 sigma (68%) or 2 sigma (95%) interval?
cheers
Martin
Re: Is cutechess-cli's rating interval 1 sigma or 2 sigma?
Posted: Fri May 18, 2018 8:49 pm
by F. Bluemers
cutechess-cli output:
Score of dirty vs dirtyx: 5512 - 4797 - 4638 [0.524] 14947
Elo difference: 16.63 +/- 4.62
in dirty elo tool (WDL):
eb 5512 4638 4797
80% confidence 14 <= 17 <= 20
90% confidence 13 <= 17 <= 21
95% confidence 12 <= 17 <= 21
98% confidence 11 <= 17 <= 22
99% confidence 11 <= 17 <= 23
looks like 95%
Re: Is cutechess-cli's rating interval 1 sigma or 2 sigma?
Posted: Sat May 19, 2018 9:24 am
by fierz
Thanks! I was worried a bit about the size of my confidence intervals but if they are 95% then it's not as bad as I thought (I usually use 1 sigma by default in anything I do...)