When will SF (or Asmfish) catch with the alphazero that demo

[Isaac]

In terms of elo estimation, if SF (and Asmfish) continue to increase their elo at a similar (or slightly lesser) rate in future, in how many years will it (they) catch the "old" alphazero that demolished the castrated (due to time control) but on steroids (due to hardware) SF8?

[CMCanavessi]

It has already catched it a while ago, and is now stronger.

[Ovyron]

It has already catched it a while ago, and is now stronger.

No, we're talking about some 3491 performance rating equivalent in the CCRL.

Stockfish 9 is still 41 elo behind, but we're getting close.

[CMCanavessi]

It has already catched it a while ago, and is now stronger.

No, we're talking about some 3491 performance rating equivalent in the CCRL.

Stockfish 9 is still 41 elo behind, but we're getting close.

It depends on how you meassure it. Did you account for the Stockfish 8 crlippling effect? Because it's not the same to play with a healthy SF8 than with a crippled one, and it's not easy to estimate the elo loss.

Edit: what I mean it is if you match SF9 vs SF8 with the same limitations it had vs A0, the numbers would be very similar, or even better.

[Ovyron]

Edit: what I mean it is if you match SF9 vs SF8 with the same limitations it had vs A0, the numbers would be very similar, or even better.

Has this been tried? What you need is to "cripple" SF9 as well.

Remember that A0 was also "crippled" as it didn't have an opening book, endgame tablebases, had to move at 1 min/move, etc.

So if you bump the S8 side so it plays stronger than A0, you have to bump the A0's side as well, and the 100 elo advantage persists.

Lest, saying that you can equip S9 with all the stuff so that it has the same performance against "Crippled" S8 is like saying that I can even reach a better performance against "Crippled" S8, with another "Crippled" S8, by just letting it play at 10 min/move instead of 1 min/move.

By the elo estimation alone we're not there yet, A0 would still perform about +40 elo against "crippled S9" on the same conditions.