Progress in 30 years by four intervals of 7-8 years
Posted: Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:03 am
I took 5 top engines of their time separated by 4 fairly equal intervals of 7-8 years since 1987, thanks to Ed's porting to UCI of his beautiful old works.
Hardware gains are for one core.
100 ELO points
250 ELO points
420 ELO points
480 ELO points
One can observe that software progression in 1987-2002 was fairly slow, slower than hardware progression. However, 2002-2017 saw extremely fast software progression and slow hardware progression. This is mostly due to such developments as Fruit/Rybka and Stockfish/Komodo.
In 30 years:
Total gain hardware: 150+300+100+70 = 620 ELO points
Total gain software: 100+250+420+480 = 1250 ELO points
Total gain hardware + software: 620+1250 = 1870 ELO points
FIDE ELO gain: 3300-2070 = 1230 ELO points
Compression of FIDE rating compared to computer rating: 1250/1870 = 0.67
Hardware gains are for one core.
- Mephisto Roma (1987)
CPU: 68020 14 MHz
FIDE ELO: 2070
Rebel 6.0 (1994)
CPU: i486 66 MHz
Hardware gain: 150 ELO points
FIDE ELO: 2350
Shredder 6PB (2002)
CPU: Athlon 1500 MHz
Hardware gain: 300 ELO points
FIDE ELO: 2750
Robbolito 0.085 (2009)
CPU: Core 2 3000 MHz
Hardware gain: 100 Elo points
FIDE ELO: 3050
Stockfish (2017)
CPU: i7 4000 MHz
Hardware gain: 70 Elo points
FIDE ELO: 3300
Code: Select all
Games Completed = 100 of 100 (Avg game length = 144.497 sec)
Settings = RR/64MB/60000ms in 40 moves/M 200000cp for 1000 moves, D 4000 moves/EPD:2moves_v1.epd(32000)
Time = 3904 sec elapsed, 0 sec remaining
1. Rebel 6.0 (1994) 64.5/100 60-31-9 (L: m=30 t=1 i=0 a=0) (D: r=4 i=5 f=0 s=0 a=0) (tpm=1268.5 d=7.10 nps=335726008)
2. Mephisto Roma (1987) 35.5/100 31-60-9 (L: m=54 t=6 i=0 a=0) (D: r=4 i=5 f=0 s=0 a=0) (tpm=1385.3 d=1.00 nps=0)
Code: Select all
Games Completed = 100 of 100 (Avg game length = 467.077 sec)
Settings = RR/64MB/120000ms+2000ms/M 200000cp for 1000 moves, D 4000 moves/EPD:2moves_v1.epd(32000)
Time = 11964 sec elapsed, 0 sec remaining
1. Shredder Paderborn (2002) 80.5/100 74-13-13 (L: m=11 t=2 i=0 a=0) (D: r=8 i=3 f=0 s=2 a=0) (tpm=3294.0 d=12.37 nps=1409398)
2. Rebel 6.0 (1994) 19.5/100 13-74-13 (L: m=70 t=4 i=0 a=0) (D: r=8 i=3 f=0 s=2 a=0) (tpm=3373.5 d=9.80 nps=125460712)
Code: Select all
Games Completed = 100 of 100 (Avg game length = 253.156 sec)
Settings = RR/64MB/2000ms per move/M 200000cp for 1000 moves, D 4000 moves/EPD:2moves_v1.epd(32000)
Time = 6428 sec elapsed, 0 sec remaining
1. RobboLito 0.085 (2009) 92.0/100 87-3-10 (L: m=3 t=0 i=0 a=0) (D: r=7 i=1 f=2 s=0 a=0) (tpm=2001.4 d=18.02 nps=2700313)
2. Shredder Paderborn (2002) 8.0/100 3-87-10 (L: m=86 t=0 i=1 a=0) (D: r=7 i=1 f=2 s=0 a=0) (tpm=2031.7 d=12.46 nps=1425171)
Code: Select all
Games Completed = 100 of 100 (Avg game length = 233.045 sec)
Settings = RR/64MB/60000ms+1000ms/M 200000cp for 1000 moves, D 4000 moves/EPD:2moves_v1.epd(32000)
Time = 5974 sec elapsed, 0 sec remaining
1. Stockfish 110117 (2017) 94.0/100 89-1-10 (L: m=1 t=0 i=0 a=0) (D: r=6 i=2 f=1 s=1 a=0) (tpm=1644.9 d=28.96 nps=1965019)
2. RobboLito 0.085 (2009) 6.0/100 1-89-10 (L: m=89 t=0 i=0 a=0) (D: r=6 i=2 f=1 s=1 a=0) (tpm=1852.4 d=16.50 nps=2572328)
One can observe that software progression in 1987-2002 was fairly slow, slower than hardware progression. However, 2002-2017 saw extremely fast software progression and slow hardware progression. This is mostly due to such developments as Fruit/Rybka and Stockfish/Komodo.
In 30 years:
Total gain hardware: 150+300+100+70 = 620 ELO points
Total gain software: 100+250+420+480 = 1250 ELO points
Total gain hardware + software: 620+1250 = 1870 ELO points
FIDE ELO gain: 3300-2070 = 1230 ELO points
Compression of FIDE rating compared to computer rating: 1250/1870 = 0.67