Houdini is 100 ELO points above Komodo and Stockfish. Also, confidence of superiority of 90% of Houdini over Komodo (and higher over Stockfish) in this Rapid.
The most striking peculiarity is that Houdini keeps more Queens on the board till the Win adjudication than Stockfish and Komodo. Average number of Queens at the Win adjudication:
Houdini: 1.06
Stockfish: 0.70
Komodo: 0.68
97.5% or 2 standard deviations that it's not a statistical fluke.
right,at 58 games only,also you "forgot" the games between H,ko,and sf only,who is first,also you "forgot" that the latest SF is far ahead from KO ,instead in tcec rapids shows are equals means doesnt represent the true sf-ko difference,as for sf-H games the sf is +2 wins, i know you would say the sample is small,btw the latest sf with contempt +10 shows sf is 90-100 more than komodo ,not to mention asmfish.
i know the positional play of houdini might overestimate it to many ppl eyes like komodo 10 when came out but soon the "crap" sf proved more "pragmatic" chess engine.
as for houdini 5 to be 100 elo better than sf based from your sample (with weak opponents",the only sample i trust is head to head match .til now sf-H +2=8-0 small sample ok ,oh as i always say give some gredit to o p e n source sf got the meaning?
Houdini performs about 100 ELO points above SF and Komodo, SF a bit above K, although it has less points. Houdini is 88% likely to be stronger than SF in the Rapdis. Not that high confidence, but I predict that Superfinal won't be a walkover of SF over H.
a slightly different look , using bayeselo, mm 1 1 , covariance
BayeseElo uses "BayesElos" and not logistic Elos. Without re-scaling it usually means compression of logistic Elos. But LOS should be fine, and we see you get for Houdini LOS of 95% against Stockfish, which does not give extreme confidence, but still a serious one that Houdini is not significantly weaker. With my mining of these 50 or 60 games per engine, I tried to see if the qualification of Houdini to Superfinal, which came as a surprise, was not a fluke, and it seems not. Also, the style of Houdini seems pretty peculiar, it seems to care about its Queen more than other engines.
All in all, it's very hard to predict the Superfinal outcome.
clumma wrote:Amazing. How can someone leave the field for years and come back with this kind of performance straight away?
Robert is extremely talented....
Dr.D
_No one can hit as hard as life.But it ain’t about how hard you can hit.It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward.How much you can take and keep moving forward….
clumma wrote:Amazing. How can someone leave the field for years and come back with this kind of performance straight away?
Robert is extremely talented....
Dr.D
I like Houdini but everyone copies from everyone nowadays. Years ago every program had a different style and programmers never openly talked about how they did this or that on their program.
Mark Zukerberg - Facebook - took the idea of the facebook concept from his colleagues when he was in college - HarvardConnection
Steve Jobs - took the idea of an iconical GUI from Xerox - became the Apple concept
Bill Gates - took the idea of Windows from Steve Jobs in collaboration with him one year later I believe.
It's a rarity from someone to come up with an idea or a device that is original.
I am actually in the process of developing an invisible condom. The tagline is," Not seeing is believing" I would be a god among mere mortals.
"Without change, something sleeps inside us, and seldom awakens. The sleeper must awaken." (Dune - 1984)
clumma wrote:Amazing. How can someone leave the field for years and come back with this kind of performance straight away?
Robert is extremely talented....
Dr.D
Robert is extremely talented....
Dr.D[/quote]
I like Houdini but everyone copies from everyone nowadays. Years ago every program had a different style and programmers never openly talked about how they did this or that on their program.
Mark Zukerberg - Facebook - took the idea of the facebook concept from his colleagues when he was in college - HarvardConnection
Steve Jobs - took the idea of an iconical GUI from Xerox - became the Apple concept
Bill Gates - took the idea of Windows from Steve Jobs in collaboration with him one year later I believe.
It's a rarity from someone to come up with an idea or a device that is original.
I am actually in the process of developing an invisible condom. The tagline is," Not seeing is believing" I would be a god among mere mortals.
"Without change, something sleeps inside us, and seldom awakens. The sleeper must awaken." (Dune - 1984)