On Opening books in 2015

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Lyudmil Tsvetkov
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Re: On Opening books in 2015

Post by Lyudmil Tsvetkov »

zullil wrote:
Lyudmil Tsvetkov wrote:Let's be specific.

Two Knight's Defence:

[d]r1bqkb1r/pppp1ppp/2n2n2/4p1N1/2B1P3/8/PPPP1PPP/RNBQK2R b KQkq - 0 4

Which side favours that one?
What do you mean when you say a position "favors" one side or another? (Serious question---please consider deeply.) The value of any position is simply White wins, Black wins or draw.

More specifically, what does "White is better by 60 cp" mean? Is this different from "White is ahead by 20 cp"? Is it different from "Black is ahead by 20 cp"?
Yeah, I think white wins that, as 60cps, if the assessment is even very slightly correct, should be just above or near the winning margin in the opening.

Fischer also claimed white wins that.
And Fischer was able to whitewash his direct opponents at the height of his strength, so I am inclined to believe even only his words here.
jefk
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Re: On Opening books in 2015

Post by jefk »

[quote="Lyudmil Tsvetkov"]Let's be specific.
Two Knight's Defence:
Unfortunately, I am very much afraid white has substantial advantage above, in
the range of at least 60cps, so winning or close to winning.[/quote]

60cps looks a bit high to me,
but anyway, yep, i prefer ...Bc5 Italian
above the Nf6 gambit line (2knightsdefense)

jef

PS fully agree with your Ruy Lopez comments
Lyudmil Tsvetkov
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Re: On Opening books in 2015

Post by Lyudmil Tsvetkov »

jefk wrote: it would depend on some parameters, eg such as you were suggesting in your 'compendium' (2010; is there any update ?),
No update. Work discontinued.
Going on holidays. :)

You can not expect an engine that is tuned with 10-moves or longer book, receiving ready-made opening positions, to be able to make sense which move is best in the early opening, at move 2,3,5.

After 10-15 years of tuning with a very shallow book, and after the engine's search is improved to the extent that it reaches some 100-150 plies on average, and after the engine's evaluation is drastically improved from current top engines'evals - yes, in 15-20 years time, after all those changes have been introduced, I will gladly accept engine advice in the early opening.
zullil
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Re: On Opening books in 2015

Post by zullil »

Lyudmil Tsvetkov wrote:
zullil wrote:
Lyudmil Tsvetkov wrote:Let's be specific.

Two Knight's Defence:

[d]r1bqkb1r/pppp1ppp/2n2n2/4p1N1/2B1P3/8/PPPP1PPP/RNBQK2R b KQkq - 0 4

Which side favours that one?
What do you mean when you say a position "favors" one side or another? (Serious question---please consider deeply.) The value of any position is simply White wins, Black wins or draw.

More specifically, what does "White is better by 60 cp" mean? Is this different from "White is ahead by 20 cp"? Is it different from "Black is ahead by 20 cp"?
Yeah, I think white wins that, as 60cps, if the assessment is even very slightly correct, should be just above or near the winning margin in the opening.

Fischer also claimed white wins that.
And Fischer was able to whitewash his direct opponents at the height of his strength, so I am inclined to believe even only his words here.
Don't think you've really addressed my question. What do humans mean when they say a position favors White or favors Black? What does the statement mean?

If I understand correctly, your assertion is that with optimal play by both sides, the Two Knights position you posted is a win for White. My guess is that it is a draw, as are almost all standard opening positions.

In any case, Stockfish's evaluation based on its search is currently

Code: Select all

info depth 42 seldepth 67 multipv 1 score cp -16 nodes 46315755063 nps 17942433 hashfull 999 tbhits 0 time 2581353 pv d7d5 e4d5 c6a5 d2d3 h7h6 g5f3 e5e4 d1e2 a5c4 d3c4 f8c5 f3d2 d8e7 e1g1 e8g8 b1c3 c8g4 e2e1 e4e3 f2e3 e7e3 e1e3 c5e3 g1h1 e3d4 h2h3 d4c3 h3g4 c3e5 d2f3 f6g4 f3e5 g4e5 b2b3 f8e8 c1f4 a8d8 a1e1 f7f6 h1h2 c7c6 f4e5 f6e5 d5c6 b7c6 a2a4 e5e4 h2g3 e4e3 b3b4
So we might say that "the position favors White by a bit", but I'm not sure that statement has any well-defined meaning.
jdart
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Re: On Opening books in 2015

Post by jdart »

The Two Knights' is probably equal but the path to equality is a narrow one and there are a lot of ways to go wrong.

I don't think search from this position is going to show you the optimal path in a reasonable amount of time.

Also, a more general point: strong GMs and correspondence players come up with opening novelties all the time. Some of them significantly change the evaluation of opening moves. How do you think they find these moves? The answer is: very, very deep search and analysis, using computers (nowadays) and far more time than you get in a OTB game with the clock ticking. So a computer that does not have any knowledge about such moves (the ones that are known from published games) will be at a disadvantage.

--Jon
zullil
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Re: On Opening books in 2015

Post by zullil »

One more iteration, but what does it mean anything more than the last one?

Code: Select all

info depth 43 seldepth 67 multipv 1 score cp -26 nodes 70963710485 nps 18178544 hashfull 999 tbhits 0 time 3903707 pv d7d5 e4d5 c6a5 c4b5 c8d7 d1e2 f8e7 g5f3 f6d5 f3e5 c7c6 b5d3 d5f4 e2e4 f4d3 e4d3 d7e6 d3d8 a8d8 d2d3 e7f6 f2f4 c6c5 c1e3 f6e5 f4e5 b7b6 e1g1 a5c6 b1c3 e8g8 e3f4 c5c4 d3c4 e6c4 f1d1 c6b4 d1d6 c4e6 h2h3 d8d6 e5d6 f8d8 a1c1 e6f5 c1d1 h7h6 d1d2 b4c2 b2b3 c2b4
zullil
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Re: On Opening books in 2015

Post by zullil »

jdart wrote:The Two Knights' is probably equal but the path to equality is a narrow one and there are a lot of ways to go wrong.
This is an interesting observation, since it suggests that we can quantify something. For example, one could attempt to measure the fraction of legal moves that alter the theoretical value of the position. Some positions would then be more "volatile" than others ---but still each position has a theoretical evaluation of +∞, -∞ or 0.
Lyudmil Tsvetkov
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Re: On Opening books in 2015

Post by Lyudmil Tsvetkov »

jdart wrote:The Two Knights' is probably equal but the path to equality is a narrow one and there are a lot of ways to go wrong.
Tell that Fischer. :)
Lyudmil Tsvetkov
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Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2012 12:41 pm

Re: On Opening books in 2015

Post by Lyudmil Tsvetkov »

zullil wrote:
Lyudmil Tsvetkov wrote:
zullil wrote:
Lyudmil Tsvetkov wrote:Let's be specific.

Two Knight's Defence:

[d]r1bqkb1r/pppp1ppp/2n2n2/4p1N1/2B1P3/8/PPPP1PPP/RNBQK2R b KQkq - 0 4

Which side favours that one?
What do you mean when you say a position "favors" one side or another? (Serious question---please consider deeply.) The value of any position is simply White wins, Black wins or draw.

More specifically, what does "White is better by 60 cp" mean? Is this different from "White is ahead by 20 cp"? Is it different from "Black is ahead by 20 cp"?
Yeah, I think white wins that, as 60cps, if the assessment is even very slightly correct, should be just above or near the winning margin in the opening.

Fischer also claimed white wins that.
And Fischer was able to whitewash his direct opponents at the height of his strength, so I am inclined to believe even only his words here.
Don't think you've really addressed my question. What do humans mean when they say a position favors White or favors Black? What does the statement mean?

If I understand correctly, your assertion is that with optimal play by both sides, the Two Knights position you posted is a win for White. My guess is that it is a draw, as are almost all standard opening positions.

In any case, Stockfish's evaluation based on its search is currently

Code: Select all

info depth 42 seldepth 67 multipv 1 score cp -16 nodes 46315755063 nps 17942433 hashfull 999 tbhits 0 time 2581353 pv d7d5 e4d5 c6a5 d2d3 h7h6 g5f3 e5e4 d1e2 a5c4 d3c4 f8c5 f3d2 d8e7 e1g1 e8g8 b1c3 c8g4 e2e1 e4e3 f2e3 e7e3 e1e3 c5e3 g1h1 e3d4 h2h3 d4c3 h3g4 c3e5 d2f3 f6g4 f3e5 g4e5 b2b3 f8e8 c1f4 a8d8 a1e1 f7f6 h1h2 c7c6 f4e5 f6e5 d5c6 b7c6 a2a4 e5e4 h2g3 e4e3 b3b4
So we might say that "the position favors White by a bit", but I'm not sure that statement has any well-defined meaning.
A human thinks the same as an engine: maybe I have an advantage, it is small, so probably not winning, but I am not certain even about that... :)

Still, I stick by my opinion.
Lyudmil Tsvetkov
Posts: 6052
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2012 12:41 pm

Re: On Opening books in 2015

Post by Lyudmil Tsvetkov »

zullil wrote:One more iteration, but what does it mean anything more than the last one?

Code: Select all

info depth 43 seldepth 67 multipv 1 score cp -26 nodes 70963710485 nps 18178544 hashfull 999 tbhits 0 time 3903707 pv d7d5 e4d5 c6a5 c4b5 c8d7 d1e2 f8e7 g5f3 f6d5 f3e5 c7c6 b5d3 d5f4 e2e4 f4d3 e4d3 d7e6 d3d8 a8d8 d2d3 e7f6 f2f4 c6c5 c1e3 f6e5 f4e5 b7b6 e1g1 a5c6 b1c3 e8g8 e3f4 c5c4 d3c4 e6c4 f1d1 c6b4 d1d6 c4e6 h2h3 d8d6 e5d6 f8d8 a1c1 e6f5 c1d1 h7h6 d1d2 b4c2 b2b3 c2b4
Now it is getting closer to the truth.