Excellent job

[Laskos]

Come on, Larry, you are the clear favourite! .

I would call slight favorite. Last time it was a clear win of SF. The excellent starting positions were by Nelson too that time. Let's see, but I wouldn't say "clear" outcome in the Superfinal as of now.

So what are your probabilities about the final?

I am sure we would all like to hear about it.

I don't have such. I can bet, though, 2:1 on SF. I have slightly larger probability to lose one beer, but I have 2 beers to win, with somewhat lesser probability.

[Milos]

I don't have such. I can bet, though, 2:1 on SF. Do you accept that bet on a beer? I have slightly larger probability to lose one beer, but I have 2 beers to win.

So you judge K LOS in 48 games match to be 67% or less. Assuming 75% draw rate that means SF has at least 33% for 7 points out of 12 decided games.
If you were a betting house I would say your earning margins are a disgrace.

[Laskos]

I don't have such. I can bet, though, 2:1 on SF. Do you accept that bet on a beer? I have slightly larger probability to lose one beer, but I have 2 beers to win.

So you judge K LOS in 48 games match to be 67% or less. Assuming 75% draw rate that means SF has at least 33% for 7 points out of 12 decided games.
If you were a betting house I would say your earning margins are a disgrace.

64, so about 18 won games (28%), above 9-9 for SF with 33% is reasonable. Yes, earning margins are not much, but to me it seems still some earnings. Far from a "clear favorite" of Lyudmil.

[Lyudmil Tsvetkov]

Come on, Larry, you are the clear favourite! .

I would call slight favorite. Last time it was a clear win of SF. The excellent starting positions were by Nelson too that time. Let's see, but I wouldn't say "clear" outcome in the Superfinal as of now.

So what are your probabilities about the final?

I am sure we would all like to hear about it.

I don't have such. I can bet, though, 2:1 on SF. I have slightly larger probability to lose one beer, but I have 2 beers to win, with somewhat lesser probability.

And my bet is Komodo will win by 3 points, although I would rather like SF to win.

[Milos]

I don't have such. I can bet, though, 2:1 on SF. Do you accept that bet on a beer? I have slightly larger probability to lose one beer, but I have 2 beers to win.

So you judge K LOS in 48 games match to be 67% or less. Assuming 75% draw rate that means SF has at least 33% for 7 points out of 12 decided games.
If you were a betting house I would say your earning margins are a disgrace.

64, so about 18 won games (28%), above 9-9 for SF with 33% is reasonable. Yes, earning margins are not much, but to me it seems still some earnings. Far from a "clear favorite" of Lyudmil.

Ok 64 changes a bit the odds, so it reduces your margin.
I just made a sim. 67% match winning chance for Komodo is expected value exactly for +8.5Elo for Komodo.
So basically you personally value at this LTC Komodo to have less than 8.5Elo advantage which is IMO a good estimation.

[Laskos]

I don't have such. I can bet, though, 2:1 on SF. Do you accept that bet on a beer? I have slightly larger probability to lose one beer, but I have 2 beers to win.

So you judge K LOS in 48 games match to be 67% or less. Assuming 75% draw rate that means SF has at least 33% for 7 points out of 12 decided games.
If you were a betting house I would say your earning margins are a disgrace.

64, so about 18 won games (28%), above 9-9 for SF with 33% is reasonable. Yes, earning margins are not much, but to me it seems still some earnings. Far from a "clear favorite" of Lyudmil.

Ok 64 changes a bit the odds, so it reduces your margin.
I just made a sim. 67% match winning chance for Komodo is expected value exactly for +8.5Elo for Komodo.
So basically you personally value at this LTC Komodo to have less than 8.5Elo advantage which is IMO a good estimation.

I think the difference is less than 10 Elo points at LTC 16 threads.

[Milos]

Come on, Larry, you are the clear favourite! .

I would call slight favorite. Last time it was a clear win of SF. The excellent starting positions were by Nelson too that time. Let's see, but I wouldn't say "clear" outcome in the Superfinal as of now.

So what are your probabilities about the final?

I am sure we would all like to hear about it.

I don't have such. I can bet, though, 2:1 on SF. I have slightly larger probability to lose one beer, but I have 2 beers to win, with somewhat lesser probability.

And my bet is Komodo will win by 3 points, although I would rather like SF to win.

Here are your chances to win the bet depending on Elo difference between Komodo and SF:
1) +35Elo => 82%
2) +21Elo => 63%
3) +14Elo => 51%
4) +7Elo => 38%
5) 0Elo => 26%
6) -7Elo => 15%

So assuming even bet, you are estimating Komodo to be +14Elo over SF which at this LTC (16 cores) IMO is optimistic.

[Lyudmil Tsvetkov]

Come on, Larry, you are the clear favourite! .

I would call slight favorite. Last time it was a clear win of SF. The excellent starting positions were by Nelson too that time. Let's see, but I wouldn't say "clear" outcome in the Superfinal as of now.

So what are your probabilities about the final?

I am sure we would all like to hear about it.

I don't have such. I can bet, though, 2:1 on SF. I have slightly larger probability to lose one beer, but I have 2 beers to win, with somewhat lesser probability.

And my bet is Komodo will win by 3 points, although I would rather like SF to win.

Here are your chances to win the bet depending on Elo difference between Komodo and SF:
1) +35Elo => 82%
2) +21Elo => 63%
3) +14Elo => 51%
4) +7Elo => 38%
5) 0Elo => 26%
6) -7Elo => 15%

So assuming even bet, you are estimating Komodo to be +14Elo over SF which at this LTC (16 cores) IMO is optimistic.

As I told you, I take into consideration also the opening set.
Without it, I would not know whom to favour. Now I favour Komodo.

I also look at the games and see how they develop, when one side has the advantage even when drawing, etc., not just the pure statistics.

[Milos]

As I told you, I take into consideration also the opening set.
Without it, I would not know whom to favour. Now I favour Komodo.

So you have access to the openings that will be in the final?
Interesting, didn't know you are so close to Cato (not to mention that openings are actually randomly selected only before the game from much bigger pool of openings, so even Cato doesn't know exact openings that will be played in the final).

I also look at the games and see how they develop, when one side has the advantage even when drawing, etc., not just the pure statistics.

Lol, from less than 20 games played so far between SF and Komodo, you have all that information to conclude better than simple statistics over 64 games (64 games between 2 engines is more than enough sample to conclude some things, ofc not with a big certainty).
As usual you are just overestimating your knowledge...

[Adam Hair]

Only Nelson (Cato), IM Erik Kislik and possibly now Martin know which openings will be used in the Finals.