komodo wins stage 3

[Ajedrecista]

Hello Kai:

Here are my general predictions (simulations) for the Stage 4 and the Superfinal with a draw model:


STAGE 4

To qualify for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   75%
Houdini  62%
SF       48%
Bouquet   9%
Gull      5%
Naum      0%

At least one outside top 3 qualifies for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

14%

SUPERFINAL

To win the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   54%
Houdini  30%
SF       15%
Bouquet   1%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

If Komodo qualifies to the Superfinal, its adversary will be:

Code: Select all

Houdini  53%
SF       37%
Bouquet   6%
Gull      4%
Naum      0%

Thank you very much for your simulations. I have a question: what draw model do you use? I would go for something like D/[score*(1 - score)] = C = constant; D = C*score*(1 - score) and then adjust C: for example, D = 0.7 for score = 1/2, this is C = 2.8. I guess that this draw model is very simple, that is why I ask. Thanks in advance.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

[Laskos]

Hello Kai:

Here are my general predictions (simulations) for the Stage 4 and the Superfinal with a draw model:


STAGE 4

To qualify for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   75%
Houdini  62%
SF       48%
Bouquet   9%
Gull      5%
Naum      0%

At least one outside top 3 qualifies for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

14%

SUPERFINAL

To win the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   54%
Houdini  30%
SF       15%
Bouquet   1%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

If Komodo qualifies to the Superfinal, its adversary will be:

Code: Select all

Houdini  53%
SF       37%
Bouquet   6%
Gull      4%
Naum      0%

Thank you very much for your simulations. I have a question: what draw model do you use? I would go for something like D/[score*(1 - score)] = C = constant; D = C*score*(1 - score) and then adjust C: for example, D = 0.7 for score = 1/2, this is C = 2.8. I guess that this draw model is very simple, that is why I ask. Thanks in advance.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

Exactly that, Jesus.

[Dr.Wael Deeb]

Dr D,
too much roasting: it'll be burned out

Indeed

[Laskos]

Thank you very much for your simulations. I have a question: what draw model do you use? I would go for something like D/[score*(1 - score)] = C = constant; D = C*score*(1 - score) and then adjust C: for example, D = 0.7 for score = 1/2, this is C = 2.8. I guess that this draw model is very simple, that is why I ask. Thanks in advance.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

I further improved the draw model, so that it peaks to 70% draws for weaker engines like Naum, and peaks at 75% for top engines (linear increase with ELO strength). New simulations after game 14 in Stage 4 (Komodo-SF, draw), it seems that every point is quite important now:


STAGE 4

To qualify for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   87%
Houdini  50%
SF       55%
Bouquet   7%
Gull      1%
Naum      0%

To win Stage 4:

Code: Select all

Komodo   61%
Houdini  17%
SF       20%
Bouquet   2%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

At least one outside top 3 qualifies for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

8%

SUPERFINAL

To win the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   63%
Houdini  22%
SF       15%
Bouquet   0%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

If Komodo qualifies to the Superfinal, its adversary will be:

Code: Select all

Houdini  44%
SF       50%
Bouquet   5%
Gull      1%
Naum      0%

[michiguel]

Thank you very much for your simulations. I have a question: what draw model do you use? I would go for something like D/[score*(1 - score)] = C = constant; D = C*score*(1 - score) and then adjust C: for example, D = 0.7 for score = 1/2, this is C = 2.8. I guess that this draw model is very simple, that is why I ask. Thanks in advance.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

I further improved the draw model, so that it peaks to 70% draws for weaker engines like Naum, and peaks at 75% for top engines (linear increase with ELO strength). New simulations after game 14 in Stage 4 (Komodo-SF, draw), it seems that every point is quite important now:


STAGE 4

To qualify for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   87%
Houdini  50%
SF       55%
Bouquet   7%
Gull      1%
Naum      0%

To win Stage 4:

Code: Select all

Komodo   61%
Houdini  17%
SF       20%
Bouquet   2%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

At least one outside top 3 qualifies for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

8%

SUPERFINAL

To win the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   63%
Houdini  22%
SF       15%
Bouquet   0%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

If Komodo qualifies to the Superfinal, its adversary will be:

Code: Select all

Houdini  44%
SF       50%
Bouquet   5%
Gull      1%
Naum      0%

Ordo's experimental "with previous info (bayesian)" rating at this point...
Adam's probably better, using more influence from CCRL etc.
This one only used CCRL as a base from the starting point of the season.

I am not concluding anything from this, but SF is starting to climb a bit and Houdini is not taking off (yet?).

Miguel

Code: Select all

   # PLAYER              : RATING    POINTS  PLAYED    (%)
   1 Komodo 1133         : 3205.4       3.5       5   70.0%
   2 Stockfish 021113    : 3157.6       3.0       5   60.0%
   3 Houdini 9601        : 3150.2      12.0      22   54.5%
   4 Bouquet 1.8b        : 3134.8      12.0      22   54.5%
   5 Rybka 4.1           : 3107.1      41.0      73   56.2%
   6 Critter 1.6a        : 3102.9      22.5      42   53.6%
   7 Gull R600           : 3102.6       1.5       5   30.0%
   8 Naum 4.6            : 3044.1      10.5      23   45.7%
   9 Hiarcs 14           : 3039.5      28.5      55   51.8%
  10 Equinox 2b          : 3027.1      12.5      25   50.0%
  11 Vitruvius 1.19      : 2996.6       5.0      12   41.7%
  12 Shredder 12         : 2974.2      12.5      25   50.0%
  13 Hannibal 220813     : 2964.6       3.5       7   50.0%
  14 Junior 13.3         : 2958.5      19.0      43   44.2%
  15 Spike 1.4           : 2939.7      12.0      25   48.0%
  16 Jonny 6             : 2935.6      12.0      25   48.0%
  17 Spark 1             : 2892.5       9.5      25   38.0%
  18 Minkochess 1.3      : 2846.0       3.5       7   50.0%
  19 Onno 1.27           : 2830.4       9.0      25   36.0%
  20 Toga II 140913      : 2818.5       3.5      18   19.4%
  21 Tornado 5           : 2812.5       4.5      18   25.0%
  22 Sjeng WC2008        : 2810.0       3.5       7   50.0%
  23 Exchess 7.15b       : 2807.4       7.0      25   28.0%
  24 Quazar 0.4          : 2798.7       2.0      12   16.7%
  25 Gaviota 0.87a8      : 2787.0       3.5       7   50.0%
  26 Scorpio 2.76        : 2781.6       3.0       7   42.9%
  27 The Baron 3.35a     : 2758.0       3.5       7   50.0%
  28 Crafty 23.6         : 2753.0       3.0       7   42.9%
  29 Octochess 5178      : 2683.5       1.5       6   25.0%
  30 Arasan 16           : 2618.0       1.5       6   25.0%
  31 Redqueen 1.14       : 2613.5       1.0       6   16.7%
  32 Hamsters 0.71       : 2593.7       3.5       7   50.0%
  33 Nebula 2            : 2590.4       1.0       6   16.7%
  34 Alfil 13.1          : 2580.3       2.5       7   35.7%
  35 Arminius 100813     : 2569.1       2.0       7   28.6%
  36 Delphil 3           : 2439.1       2.0       6   33.3%
  37 Firefly 2.6         : 2170.2       0.0       6    0.0%

[Laskos]

Ordo's experimental "with previous info (bayesian)" rating at this point...
Adam's probably better, using more influence from CCRL etc.
This one only used CCRL as a base from the starting point of the season.

I am not concluding anything from this, but SF is starting to climb a bit and Houdini is not taking off (yet?).

Miguel

Code: Select all

   # PLAYER              : RATING    POINTS  PLAYED    (%)
   1 Komodo 1133         : 3205.4       3.5       5   70.0%
   2 Stockfish 021113    : 3157.6       3.0       5   60.0%
   3 Houdini 9601        : 3150.2      12.0      22   54.5%
   4 Bouquet 1.8b        : 3134.8      12.0      22   54.5%
   5 Rybka 4.1           : 3107.1      41.0      73   56.2%
   6 Critter 1.6a        : 3102.9      22.5      42   53.6%
   7 Gull R600           : 3102.6       1.5       5   30.0%
   8 Naum 4.6            : 3044.1      10.5      23   45.7%
   9 Hiarcs 14           : 3039.5      28.5      55   51.8%
  10 Equinox 2b          : 3027.1      12.5      25   50.0%
  11 Vitruvius 1.19      : 2996.6       5.0      12   41.7%
  12 Shredder 12         : 2974.2      12.5      25   50.0%
  13 Hannibal 220813     : 2964.6       3.5       7   50.0%
  14 Junior 13.3         : 2958.5      19.0      43   44.2%
  15 Spike 1.4           : 2939.7      12.0      25   48.0%
  16 Jonny 6             : 2935.6      12.0      25   48.0%
  17 Spark 1             : 2892.5       9.5      25   38.0%
  18 Minkochess 1.3      : 2846.0       3.5       7   50.0%
  19 Onno 1.27           : 2830.4       9.0      25   36.0%
  20 Toga II 140913      : 2818.5       3.5      18   19.4%
  21 Tornado 5           : 2812.5       4.5      18   25.0%
  22 Sjeng WC2008        : 2810.0       3.5       7   50.0%
  23 Exchess 7.15b       : 2807.4       7.0      25   28.0%
  24 Quazar 0.4          : 2798.7       2.0      12   16.7%
  25 Gaviota 0.87a8      : 2787.0       3.5       7   50.0%
  26 Scorpio 2.76        : 2781.6       3.0       7   42.9%
  27 The Baron 3.35a     : 2758.0       3.5       7   50.0%
  28 Crafty 23.6         : 2753.0       3.0       7   42.9%
  29 Octochess 5178      : 2683.5       1.5       6   25.0%
  30 Arasan 16           : 2618.0       1.5       6   25.0%
  31 Redqueen 1.14       : 2613.5       1.0       6   16.7%
  32 Hamsters 0.71       : 2593.7       3.5       7   50.0%
  33 Nebula 2            : 2590.4       1.0       6   16.7%
  34 Alfil 13.1          : 2580.3       2.5       7   35.7%
  35 Arminius 100813     : 2569.1       2.0       7   28.6%
  36 Delphil 3           : 2439.1       2.0       6   33.3%
  37 Firefly 2.6         : 2170.2       0.0       6    0.0%

If I use your ratings, the simulations give a decisive advantage to Komodo, it's almost a sure Komodo victory in this nTCEC:

To win the Superfinal using Miguel's ratings:

Code: Select all

Komodo   95%
Houdini   2%
SF        3%
Bouquet   0%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

----------------------------

I feel I am better off using my custom, compressed ratings to this long TC and hardware

New simulations after game 15 in Stage 4 (Houdini's win over Bouquet), every point is quite important now, and the top 3 engines already made their statements:


STAGE 4

To qualify for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   85%
Houdini  63%
SF       48%
Bouquet   3%
Gull      1%
Naum      0%

To win Stage 4:

Code: Select all

Komodo   57%
Houdini  25%
SF       17%
Bouquet   1%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

At least one outside top 3 qualifies for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

4%

SUPERFINAL

To win the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   60%
Houdini  27%
SF       13%
Bouquet   0%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

If Komodo qualifies to the Superfinal, its adversary will be:

Code: Select all

Houdini  58%
SF       39%
Bouquet   2%
Gull      1%
Naum      0%

[Laskos]

New simulations after game 30 (of 90) in Stage 4 (Houdini's win over Bouquet):


STAGE 4

To qualify for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   85%
SF       73%
Houdini  41%
Bouquet   1%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

To win Stage 4:

Code: Select all

Komodo   53%
SF       34%
Houdini  13%
Bouquet   0%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

At least one outside top 3 qualifies for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

1%

SUPERFINAL

To win the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   59%
SF       23%
Houdini  18%
Bouquet   0%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

If Komodo qualifies to the Superfinal, its adversary will be:

Code: Select all

SF       68%
Houdini  31%
Bouquet   1%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

[Laskos]

New simulations after game 45 (of 90) in Stage 4:


STAGE 4

To qualify for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   87%
SF       98%
Houdini  15%
Bouquet   0%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

To win Stage 4:

Code: Select all

Komodo   23%
SF       75%
Houdini   2%
Bouquet   0%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

[Laskos]

New simulations after game 60 (of 90) in Stage 4:


STAGE 4

To qualify for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   91%
SF       98%
Houdini  11%
Bouquet   0%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

To win Stage 4:

Code: Select all

Komodo   27%
SF       72%
Houdini   1%
Bouquet   0%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

[Laskos]

New simulations after game 75 (of 90) in Stage 4:


STAGE 4

To qualify for the Superfinal:

Code: Select all

Komodo   88%
SF       99%
Houdini  13%
Bouquet   0%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%

To win Stage 4:

Code: Select all

Komodo   17%
SF       82%
Houdini   1%
Bouquet   0%
Gull      0%
Naum      0%