Computer Chess Club
https://talkchess.com/
Hood wrote:Do you know the story about Skynet?
I am shocked how people dare to made allegations with no proofs.
It does not give them good opinion.
Does these two sentences have any relation?Hood wrote:Polish National tragedy in Smoleńsk. President and all delegation murdered or killed. Cui bono?
Probability to achieve >= 6.0 points: 0.000003271902477007, ~1/305632
This tool is great!simonhue wrote:http://www.chess-db.com/public/perfprob ... =Calculate
Probability to achieve >= 6.0 points: 0.000003271902477007, ~1/305632
The draw rates are derived from practical statistics:Ajedrecista wrote:
This tool is great!
http://www.chess-db.com/public/perfprob.jsp
I did not know about its existance. I wonder what are the algorithm for this calculator... I remind that I used a probability of draw of 22% that could be too high (it was only an assumption).
I use a trinomial distribution; any info about this online tool will be much appreciated. Thank you very much for the link!
Regards from Spain.
Ajedrecista.
Thank you very much: it is what I wanted to know.simonhue wrote:The draw rates are derived from practical statistics:Ajedrecista wrote:
This tool is great!
http://www.chess-db.com/public/perfprob.jsp
I did not know about its existance. I wonder what are the algorithm for this calculator... I remind that I used a probability of draw of 22% that could be too high (it was only an assumption).
I use a trinomial distribution; any info about this online tool will be much appreciated. Thank you very much for the link!
Regards from Spain.
Ajedrecista.
http://www.chess-db.com/public/research/draw_rate.html
In Ivanov's case ~18% range.
The tool works by enumerating all possible outcomes, and calculating the probability for each to occur. Then summing all this.
My tool uses an average of opponent's ratings (which is only an approximation) instead of each individual rating but I also knew that lowering my input probability of draw will bring closer results to ones of that online tool:Doing a little of trial and error, if I input D = 15.4% (there are better values, for sure):Probability to achieve exactly 0.0 points: 0.138820124747056877, ~1/7
Probability to achieve exactly 0.5 points: 0.238072629609693951, ~1/4
Probability to achieve exactly 1.0 points: 0.251974802537574517, ~1/3
Probability to achieve exactly 1.5 points: 0.185493573683177635, ~1/5
Probability to achieve exactly 2.0 points: 0.107187749981418433, ~1/9
Probability to achieve exactly 2.5 points: 0.049993388386886888, ~1/20
Probability to achieve exactly 3.0 points: 0.019559795430256514, ~1/51
Probability to achieve exactly 3.5 points: 0.006478139355314301, ~1/154
Probability to achieve exactly 4.0 points: 0.001847704350396042, ~1/541
Probability to achieve exactly 4.5 points: 0.000454071696103204, ~1/2202
Probability to achieve exactly 5.0 points: 0.000096905701835080, ~1/10319
Probability to achieve exactly 5.5 points: 0.000017842617809472, ~1/56045
Probability to achieve exactly 6.0 points: 0.000002839414544516, ~1/352185
Probability to achieve exactly 6.5 points: 0.000000384105179786, ~1/2603453
Probability to achieve exactly 7.0 points: 0.000000043967536769, ~1/22744053
Probability to achieve exactly 7.5 points: 0.000000004093525465, ~1/244288207
Probability to achieve exactly 8.0 points: 0.000000000305136562, ~1/3277221165
Probability to achieve exactly 8.5 points: 0.000000000015997155, ~1/62511114977
Probability to achieve exactly 9.0 points: 0.000000000000556751, ~1/1796132763944
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Probability to achieve >= 0.0 points: 0.999999999999999927, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 0.5 points: 0.861179875252943049, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 1.0 points: 0.623107245643249098, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 1.5 points: 0.371132443105674580, ~1/2
Probability to achieve >= 2.0 points: 0.185638869422496945, ~1/5
Probability to achieve >= 2.5 points: 0.078451119441078511, ~1/12
Probability to achieve >= 3.0 points: 0.028457731054191623, ~1/35
Probability to achieve >= 3.5 points: 0.008897935623935108, ~1/112
Probability to achieve >= 4.0 points: 0.002419796268620807, ~1/413
Probability to achieve >= 4.5 points: 0.000572091918224764, ~1/1747
Probability to achieve >= 5.0 points: 0.000118020222121559, ~1/8473
Probability to achieve >= 5.5 points: 0.000021114520286479, ~1/47360
Probability to achieve >= 6.0 points: 0.000003271902477007, ~1/305632
Probability to achieve >= 6.5 points: 0.000000432487932491, ~1/2312203
Probability to achieve >= 7.0 points: 0.000000048382752704, ~1/20668522
Probability to achieve >= 7.5 points: 0.000000004415215934, ~1/226489488
Probability to achieve >= 8.0 points: 0.000000000321690469, ~1/3108578264
Probability to achieve >= 8.5 points: 0.000000000016553906, ~1/60408700663
Probability to achieve >= 9.0 points: 0.000000000000556751, ~1/1796132763944
Code: Select all
Probabilities_in_a_trinomial_distribution, ® 2013.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Probabilities of all possible scores in a match between two engines.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Write down the number of games of the match (up to 50):
9
Write down the engines rating difference (between -800 Elo and 800 Elo):
-345.44
Probability of a draw (%) between 0 % and 24.08 %
15.4
Write down the clock rate of the CPU (in GHz), only for timing the elapsed time of the calculations:
3
The results have been saved to Probabilities.txt file.
End of the calculations. Approximated elapsed time: 40 ms.
Thanks for using Probabilities_in_a_trinomial_distribution. Press Enter to exit.
Code: Select all
Probabilities for a match of 9 games (rounded up to 0.0001%):
Rating difference (rounded up to 0.01 Elo): -345.44 Elo.
Probability of a win = W ~ 4.3414 %
Probability of a draw = D ~ 15.4000 %
Probability of a lose = L ~ 80.2586 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 9.0/ 9
+ 9 = 0 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 9.0 points out of 9: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 8.5/ 9
+ 8 = 1 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 8.5 points out of 9: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 8.0/ 9
+ 7 = 2 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 8 = 0 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 8.0 points out of 9: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 7.5/ 9
+ 6 = 3 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 7 = 1 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 7.5 points out of 9: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 7.0/ 9
+ 5 = 4 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 6 = 2 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 7 = 0 - 2
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 7.0 points out of 9: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 6.5/ 9
+ 4 = 5 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 5 = 3 - 1
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 6 = 1 - 2
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 6.5 points out of 9: 0.0000 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 6.0/ 9
+ 3 = 6 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 4 = 4 - 1
P ~ 0.0001 %
+ 5 = 2 - 2
P ~ 0.0002 %
+ 6 = 0 - 3
P ~ 0.0000 %
Probability of win 6.0 points out of 9: 0.0003 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 5.5/ 9
+ 2 = 7 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 3 = 5 - 1
P ~ 0.0003 %
+ 4 = 3 - 2
P ~ 0.0011 %
+ 5 = 1 - 3
P ~ 0.0006 %
Probability of win 5.5 points out of 9: 0.0020 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 5.0/ 9
+ 1 = 8 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 2 = 6 - 1
P ~ 0.0005 %
+ 3 = 4 - 2
P ~ 0.0037 %
+ 4 = 2 - 3
P ~ 0.0055 %
+ 5 = 0 - 4
P ~ 0.0008 %
Probability of win 5.0 points out of 9: 0.0106 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 4.5/ 9
+ 0 = 9 - 0
P ~ 0.0000 %
+ 1 = 7 - 1
P ~ 0.0005 %
+ 2 = 5 - 2
P ~ 0.0080 %
+ 3 = 3 - 3
P ~ 0.0260 %
+ 4 = 1 - 4
P ~ 0.0143 %
Probability of win 4.5 points out of 9: 0.0487 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 4.0/ 9
+ 0 = 8 - 1
P ~ 0.0002 %
+ 1 = 6 - 2
P ~ 0.0094 %
+ 2 = 4 - 3
P ~ 0.0691 %
+ 3 = 2 - 4
P ~ 0.1015 %
+ 4 = 0 - 5
P ~ 0.0149 %
Probability of win 4.0 points out of 9: 0.1950 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 3.5/ 9
+ 0 = 7 - 2
P ~ 0.0048 %
+ 1 = 5 - 3
P ~ 0.0980 %
+ 2 = 3 - 4
P ~ 0.3599 %
+ 3 = 1 - 5
P ~ 0.2115 %
Probability of win 3.5 points out of 9: 0.6741 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 3.0/ 9
+ 0 = 6 - 3
P ~ 0.0579 %
+ 1 = 4 - 4
P ~ 0.6383 %
+ 2 = 2 - 5
P ~ 1.1253 %
+ 3 = 0 - 6
P ~ 0.1837 %
Probability of win 3.0 points out of 9: 2.0053 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 2.5/ 9
+ 0 = 5 - 4
P ~ 0.4528 %
+ 1 = 3 - 5
P ~ 2.6612 %
+ 2 = 1 - 6
P ~ 1.9550 %
Probability of win 2.5 points out of 9: 5.0690 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 2.0/ 9
+ 0 = 4 - 5
P ~ 2.3600 %
+ 1 = 2 - 6
P ~ 6.9346 %
+ 2 = 0 - 7
P ~ 1.4555 %
Probability of win 2.0 points out of 9: 10.7501 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 1.5/ 9
+ 0 = 3 - 6
P ~ 8.1995 %
+ 1 = 1 - 7
P ~ 10.3259 %
Probability of win 1.5 points out of 9: 18.5254 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 1.0/ 9
+ 0 = 2 - 7
P ~ 18.3140 %
+ 1 = 0 - 8
P ~ 6.7268 %
Probability of win 1.0 points out of 9: 25.0408 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 0.5/ 9
+ 0 = 1 - 8
P ~ 23.8613 %
Probability of win 0.5 points out of 9: 23.8613 %
----------------------------------------------------
Points: 0.0/ 9
+ 0 = 0 - 9
P ~ 13.8173 %
Probability of win 0.0 points out of 9: 13.8173 %That he was guilty is self-evident just by looking at his games on the whole. Have you studied them? An human individual doesn't suddenly became a chaotic individual when he is usually very ordained in thought, nor he becomes suddenly perfect while he is instead usually very lousy.Hood wrote:Innocent until proven guilty. That is the rule which shall be followed.
"Checking" is surely not the way to find one cheating if the cheater is at the least a minimal smart. There are too many ways to bypass a search.Hood wrote: He was checked nth found, it is prove of his innocence.
Lavir wrote:That he was guilty is self-evident just by looking at his games on the whole. Have you studied them? An human individual doesn't suddenly became a chaotic individual when he is usually very ordained in thought, nor he becomes suddenly perfect while he is instead usually very lousy.Hood wrote:Innocent until proven guilty. That is the rule which shall be followed.
You can see this perfectly on the games. The games played recently are completely different in nature than those he played before. Moreover all the recent moves matches 98% of Houdini 1.5 moves and many of the strategies behind the game are obviously non-human like (an human for example very difficulty will suddenly change side of the board while he has an ongoing plan, that's not how an human mind works, while for computers this is natural).
"Checking" is surely not the way to find one cheating if the cheater is at the least a minimal smart. There are too many ways to bypass a search.Hood wrote: He was checked nth found, it is prove of his innocence.
No, naturally, that's not enough at all. If they did search him and didn't find nothing and that was the only way they had at their disposal then one is obviously innocent until proven guilty.geots wrote: But are you saying that in itself, with no concrete evidence, ie catching him with the goods on him- is enough to convict or find him guilty. You never really said, and I just wondered.