It is a little suspicious again. Using the Tournament Performance Luck Calculator hosted in Chess-DB:Cubeman wrote:I wonder if Lilov will make a new video on Borislav from he latest tournament.simonhue wrote:A new video by Valiery Lilov on Borislav Ivanov's last two tourneys:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhfCUdy2Tzk&hd=1
http://chess-results.com/tnr93301.aspx?art=1&rd=9&lan=1
http://www.chess-db.com/public/perfprob ... =Calculate
Using my own Fortran programme Probabilities_in_a_trinomial_distribution (average rating difference: 2303 - 21104/9 ~ 2303 - 2344.8889 = -41.8889 Elo):Results
Probability to achieve exactly 0.0 points: 0.000002332274255490, ~1/428766
Probability to achieve exactly 0.5 points: 0.000022390549141110, ~1/44661
Probability to achieve exactly 1.0 points: 0.000830855403277235, ~1/1203
Probability to achieve exactly 1.5 points: 0.004903176064573241, ~1/203
Probability to achieve exactly 2.0 points: 0.048690531247981082, ~1/20
Probability to achieve exactly 2.5 points: 0.131118685424084644, ~1/7
Probability to achieve exactly 3.0 points: 0.207347989078588040, ~1/4
Probability to achieve exactly 3.5 points: 0.224168358032191851, ~1/4
Probability to achieve exactly 4.0 points: 0.180776095969488520, ~1/5
Probability to achieve exactly 4.5 points: 0.113122850001862949, ~1/8
Probability to achieve exactly 5.0 points: 0.056432046028432434, ~1/17
Probability to achieve exactly 5.5 points: 0.022707177143683955, ~1/44
Probability to achieve exactly 6.0 points: 0.007420709141247940, ~1/134
Probability to achieve exactly 6.5 points: 0.001962008892422435, ~1/509
Probability to achieve exactly 7.0 points: 0.000416252313678566, ~1/2402
Probability to achieve exactly 7.5 points: 0.000069102300879496, ~1/14471
Probability to achieve exactly 8.0 points: 0.000008660244823684, ~1/115470
Probability to achieve exactly 8.5 points: 0.000000743123465396, ~1/1345671
Probability to achieve exactly 9.0 points: 0.000000036765922044, ~1/27199100
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Probability to achieve >= 0.0 points: 1.000000000000000121, ~1/0
Probability to achieve >= 0.5 points: 0.999997667725744631, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 1.0 points: 0.999975277176603520, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 1.5 points: 0.999144421773326285, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 2.0 points: 0.994241245708753044, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 2.5 points: 0.945550714460771962, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 3.0 points: 0.814432029036687317, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 3.5 points: 0.607084039958099276, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 4.0 points: 0.382915681925907425, ~1/2
Probability to achieve >= 4.5 points: 0.202139585956418904, ~1/4
Probability to achieve >= 5.0 points: 0.089016735954555954, ~1/11
Probability to achieve >= 5.5 points: 0.032584689926123519, ~1/30
Probability to achieve >= 6.0 points: 0.009877512782439564, ~1/101
Probability to achieve >= 6.5 points: 0.002456803641191624, ~1/407
Probability to achieve >= 7.0 points: 0.000494794748769188, ~1/2021
Probability to achieve >= 7.5 points: 0.000078542435090622, ~1/12731
Probability to achieve >= 8.0 points: 0.000009440134211125, ~1/105930
Probability to achieve >= 8.5 points: 0.000000779889387440, ~1/1282233
Probability to achieve >= 9.0 points: 0.000000036765922044, ~1/27199100
Code: Select all
Probabilities_in_a_trinomial_distribution, ® 2013.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Probabilities of all possible scores in a match between two engines.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Write down the number of games of the match (from 2 up to 150):
9
Write down the engines rating difference (between -800 Elo and 800 Elo).
Elo(first player) - Elo(second player):
-41.8889
Write down the probability of a draw (%) between 0.0001 % and 88.0013 %
40
Write down the clock rate of the CPU (in GHz), only for timing the elapsed time of the calculations:
3
End of the calculations. Approximated time spent in calculations: 26 ms.
The results will be saved into Probabilities.txt file, at the same path of this programme.
The results have been successfully saved into two files:
Probabilities.txt
Summary_of_probabilities.txt
Approximated total elapsed time: 122 ms.
Thanks for using Probabilities_in_a_trinomial_distribution. Press Enter to exit.
Code: Select all
Probabilities for a match of 9 games (rounded up to 0.0001%):
Rating difference (rounded up to 0.01 Elo): -41.89 Elo.
Probability of a win = W ~ 24.0007 %
Probability of a draw = D ~ 40.0000 %
Probability of a lose = L ~ 35.9993 %
-----------------------------------------------------
Points: 9.0/ 9
+ 9 = 0 - 0
P ~ 0.0003 %
Probability of win 9.0 points out of 9: 0.0003 %
-----------------------------------------------------
Points: 8.5/ 9
+ 8 = 1 - 0
P ~ 0.0040 %
Probability of win 8.5 points out of 9: 0.0040 %
-----------------------------------------------------
Points: 8.0/ 9
+ 7 = 2 - 0
P ~ 0.0264 %
+ 8 = 0 - 1
P ~ 0.0036 %
Probability of win 8.0 points out of 9: 0.0300 %
-----------------------------------------------------
Points: 7.5/ 9
+ 6 = 3 - 0
P ~ 0.1028 %
+ 7 = 1 - 1
P ~ 0.0476 %
Probability of win 7.5 points out of 9: 0.1503 %
-----------------------------------------------------
Points: 7.0/ 9
+ 5 = 4 - 0
P ~ 0.2569 %
+ 6 = 2 - 1
P ~ 0.2774 %
+ 7 = 0 - 2
P ~ 0.0214 %
Probability of win 7.0 points out of 9: 0.5557 %
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Points: 6.5/ 9
+ 4 = 5 - 0
P ~ 0.4281 %
+ 5 = 3 - 1
P ~ 0.9248 %
+ 6 = 1 - 2
P ~ 0.2497 %
Probability of win 6.5 points out of 9: 1.6026 %
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Points: 6.0/ 9
+ 3 = 6 - 0
P ~ 0.4757 %
+ 4 = 4 - 1
P ~ 1.9265 %
+ 5 = 2 - 2
P ~ 1.2484 %
+ 6 = 0 - 3
P ~ 0.0749 %
Probability of win 6.0 points out of 9: 3.7255 %
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Points: 5.5/ 9
+ 2 = 7 - 0
P ~ 0.3398 %
+ 3 = 5 - 1
P ~ 2.5686 %
+ 4 = 3 - 2
P ~ 3.4677 %
+ 5 = 1 - 3
P ~ 0.7490 %
Probability of win 5.5 points out of 9: 7.1251 %
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Points: 5.0/ 9
+ 1 = 8 - 0
P ~ 0.1416 %
+ 2 = 6 - 1
P ~ 2.1404 %
+ 3 = 4 - 2
P ~ 5.7793 %
+ 4 = 2 - 3
P ~ 3.1208 %
+ 5 = 0 - 4
P ~ 0.1685 %
Probability of win 5.0 points out of 9: 11.3506 %
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Points: 4.5/ 9
+ 0 = 9 - 0
P ~ 0.0262 %
+ 1 = 7 - 1
P ~ 1.0192 %
+ 2 = 5 - 2
P ~ 5.7791 %
+ 3 = 3 - 3
P ~ 6.9350 %
+ 4 = 1 - 4
P ~ 1.4043 %
Probability of win 4.5 points out of 9: 15.1638 %
-----------------------------------------------------
Points: 4.0/ 9
+ 0 = 8 - 1
P ~ 0.2123 %
+ 1 = 6 - 2
P ~ 3.2105 %
+ 2 = 4 - 3
P ~ 8.6684 %
+ 3 = 2 - 4
P ~ 4.6810 %
+ 4 = 0 - 5
P ~ 0.2528 %
Probability of win 4.0 points out of 9: 17.0250 %
-----------------------------------------------------
Points: 3.5/ 9
+ 0 = 7 - 2
P ~ 0.7644 %
+ 1 = 5 - 3
P ~ 5.7788 %
+ 2 = 3 - 4
P ~ 7.8014 %
+ 3 = 1 - 5
P ~ 1.6851 %
Probability of win 3.5 points out of 9: 16.0297 %
-----------------------------------------------------
Points: 3.0/ 9
+ 0 = 6 - 3
P ~ 1.6052 %
+ 1 = 4 - 4
P ~ 6.5010 %
+ 2 = 2 - 5
P ~ 4.2127 %
+ 3 = 0 - 6
P ~ 0.2528 %
Probability of win 3.0 points out of 9: 12.5716 %
-----------------------------------------------------
Points: 2.5/ 9
+ 0 = 5 - 4
P ~ 2.1669 %
+ 1 = 3 - 5
P ~ 4.6806 %
+ 2 = 1 - 6
P ~ 1.2638 %
Probability of win 2.5 points out of 9: 8.1113 %
-----------------------------------------------------
Points: 2.0/ 9
+ 0 = 4 - 5
P ~ 1.9502 %
+ 1 = 2 - 6
P ~ 2.1062 %
+ 2 = 0 - 7
P ~ 0.1625 %
Probability of win 2.0 points out of 9: 4.2189 %
-----------------------------------------------------
Points: 1.5/ 9
+ 0 = 3 - 6
P ~ 1.1701 %
+ 1 = 1 - 7
P ~ 0.5416 %
Probability of win 1.5 points out of 9: 1.7117 %
-----------------------------------------------------
Points: 1.0/ 9
+ 0 = 2 - 7
P ~ 0.4513 %
+ 1 = 0 - 8
P ~ 0.0609 %
Probability of win 1.0 points out of 9: 0.5122 %
-----------------------------------------------------
Points: 0.5/ 9
+ 0 = 1 - 8
P ~ 0.1015 %
Probability of win 0.5 points out of 9: 0.1015 %
-----------------------------------------------------
Points: 0.0/ 9
+ 0 = 0 - 9
P ~ 0.0102 %
Probability of win 0.0 points out of 9: 0.0102 %
--------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY:
Probability that the first player wins the match ~ 24.5440 %
Probability of a tied match ~ 15.1638 %
Probability that the second player wins the match ~ 60.2922 %
Code: Select all
Probabilities for a match of 9 games (rounded up to 0.0001%):
Rating difference (rounded up to 0.01 Elo): -41.89 Elo.
Probability of a win = W ~ 24.0007 %
Probability of a draw = D ~ 40.0000 %
Probability of a lose = L ~ 35.9993 %
-------------------------------------
Points: Probabilities (%):
0.0 0.0102
0.5 0.1015
1.0 0.5122
1.5 1.7117
2.0 4.2189
2.5 8.1113
3.0 12.5716
3.5 16.0297
4.0 17.0250
4.5 15.1638
5.0 11.3506
5.5 7.1251
6.0 3.7255
6.5 1.6026
7.0 0.5557
7.5 0.1503
8.0 0.0300
8.5 0.0040
9.0 0.0003
--------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY:
Probability that the first player wins the match ~ 24.5440 %
Probability of a tied match ~ 15.1638 %
Probability that the second player wins the match ~ 60.2922 %
I post a link about rating performance in this tournament:
http://chess-results.com/tnr93301.aspx? ... 984&snr=22
A rating performance of 2696 (!) that earns 67 Elo: 2303 + 67 = 2370 Elo (only in this tournament). Anyone knows if this tournament had live broadcasting?Chess-Results Server wrote:Name IVANOV Borislav
Starting rank 22
Rating 2303
Rating national 0
Rating international 2303
Ratingperformance 2696
FIDE rtg +/- 67.3
Points 8
Rank 1
Federation BUL
Ident-Number 0
Fide-ID 2903741
Regards from Spain.
Ajedrecista.