2851 Falls?

[FWCC]

Carlsen will be playing in the London Chess Classic from Dec 1-Dec 10th,2012
The participants are:Magnus Carlsen, Levon Aronian, Vishy Anand, Vladimir Kramnik, Hikaru Nakamura, Judit Polgar, Mickey Adams, Luke McShane and Gawain Jones
Carlsen is now rated at 2848.Will Carlsen surpass Kasparov's record of 2851 this Tour?I believe he will.






FWCC

[Dr.Wael Deeb]

I am sure that he will........
Dr.D

[Ajedrecista]

Hello John:

Carlsen will be playing in the London Chess Classic from Dec 1-Dec 10th,2012
The participants are:Magnus Carlsen, Levon Aronian, Vishy Anand, Vladimir Kramnik, Hikaru Nakamura, Judit Polgar, Mickey Adams, Luke McShane and Gawain Jones
Carlsen is now rated at 2848.Will Carlsen surpass Kasparov's record of 2851 this Tour?I believe he will.






FWCC

I calculated all the final ratings for Carlsen after eight games:

Code: Select all

Wins - loses:     Rating:     Rating - 2848:
 
     -8           2796.2          -51.8
     -7           2801.2          -46.8
     -6           2806.2          -41.8
     -5           2811.2          -36.8
     -4           2816.2          -31.8
     -3           2821.2          -26.8
     -2           2826.2          -21.8
     -1           2831.2          -16.8
      0           2836.2          -11.8
      1           2841.2           -6.8
      2           2846.2           -1.8
      3           2851.2            3.2
      4           2856.2            8.2
      5           2861.2           13.2
      6           2866.2           18.2
      7           2871.2           23.2
      8           2876.2           28.2

If I am not wrong, Carlsen needs finishing with at least +3 (5.5 out of 8 using the traditional {1, 0.5, 0} scoring system) for reach 2851 Elo.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

[FWCC]

The LIVE chess ratings currently have Carlsen at 2851.2 after his win today from McShane.

http://www.2700chess.com/

[JuLieN]

Carlsen is now a tabloids star in Norway
http://www.vg.no/sport/artikkel.php?artid=10056181

[JuLieN]

And a new article, claiming he's about to size Kasparov's record
http://www.vg.no/sport/artikkel.php?artid=10056271

[simonhue]

2860.5 now. Sometimes Magnus manages to suddenly screw a great start but this time he looks unstoppable ...

[Ajedrecista]

Hello:

Hello John:

Carlsen will be playing in the London Chess Classic from Dec 1-Dec 10th,2012
The participants are:Magnus Carlsen, Levon Aronian, Vishy Anand, Vladimir Kramnik, Hikaru Nakamura, Judit Polgar, Mickey Adams, Luke McShane and Gawain Jones
Carlsen is now rated at 2848.Will Carlsen surpass Kasparov's record of 2851 this Tour?I believe he will.






FWCC

I calculated all the final ratings for Carlsen after eight games:

Code: Select all

Wins - loses:     Rating:     Rating - 2848:
 
     -8           2796.2          -51.8
     -7           2801.2          -46.8
     -6           2806.2          -41.8
     -5           2811.2          -36.8
     -4           2816.2          -31.8
     -3           2821.2          -26.8
     -2           2826.2          -21.8
     -1           2831.2          -16.8
      0           2836.2          -11.8
      1           2841.2           -6.8
      2           2846.2           -1.8
      3           2851.2            3.2
      4           2856.2            8.2
      5           2861.2           13.2
      6           2866.2           18.2
      7           2871.2           23.2
      8           2876.2           28.2

If I am not wrong, Carlsen needs finishing with at least +3 (5.5 out of 8 using the traditional {1, 0.5, 0} scoring system) for reach 2851 Elo.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

My calculation was wrong by 0.2 Elo although I do not understand exactly why... finally Carlsen finished with 2861.4 Elo with an incredible +5 -0 =3 against strong opposition. Congrats to him!

IIRC, the rating performance assigns opponent's rating + 400 against an opponent when you win, opponent's rating when you draw and opponent's rating - 400 when you lose. Here is other form if I am not wrong:

Code: Select all

n: number of games.

TPR = (average opponents' rating) + 400*(wins - loses)/n

Special cases are 0% and 100% scores, which are awarded with average opponents' rating - 800 and average opponents' rating + 800 respectively. Then, Carlsen gets a TPR of 2739.625 + 400*5/8 = 2989.625 ~ 2990 Elo. I have just seen 3044 in the official web but I think that the last round has not been taken into account yet except in Jones' case because he had the bye in the last round (I get 2515.125 ~ 2515 Elo of TPR for Jones instead of 2514). In ChessBase article they give a performance of 2994 Elo, which is more less 2739.625 + 400*log(6.5/1.5) ~ 2994.3538 ~ 2994 Elo. Am I doing something wrong in my calculations?

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.