Search found 4095 matches

by syzygy
Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:02 am
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo
Replies: 84
Views: 1066

Re: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo

I don't think I have ever been more sure of anything in my life. So now it becomes very interesting, if you ever see the light, if from all the people participating in this thread, I were the one that made you see it. In the meantime perhaps Dann could at least admit that the title he has chosen fo...
by syzygy
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:40 am
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo
Replies: 84
Views: 1066

Re: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo

Instead of looking at LOS you could instead test the hypothesis that engines A and B are equal in strength. We run a match until we have 8 decided games. The match results in N games, i.e. N-8 drawn games and 8 decided games It turns out that A has won all decided games. What are the chances of this...
by syzygy
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:30 am
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo
Replies: 84
Views: 1066

Re: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo

Nice discussion Ovyron, but I don't think anyone understands what I am saying (probably because I am not communicating very effectively). Lots of intelligent people do not understand what I am saying, which means I am not doing a good job explaining. No, you are simply making the mistake to think t...
by syzygy
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:20 am
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo
Replies: 84
Views: 1066

Re: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo

Let me be perfectly clear: If there were no such thing as randomness in engine game outcomes, then my argument would be completely wrong. If there is randomness, you will not get 8 wins, 0 losses and 10^100-8 draws to begin with. Random events do not have to happen frequently. Astroids hitting the ...
by syzygy
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo
Replies: 84
Views: 1066

Re: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo

Nice discussion Ovyron, but I don't think anyone understands what I am saying (probably because I am not communicating very effectively). Lots of intelligent people do not understand what I am saying, which means I am not doing a good job explaining. No, you are simply making the mistake to think t...
by syzygy
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo
Replies: 84
Views: 1066

Re: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo

Let me be perfectly clear: If there were no such thing as randomness in engine game outcomes, then my argument would be completely wrong. If there is randomness, you will not get 8 wins, 0 losses and 10^100-8 draws to begin with. Your whole premise implies that there is (almost) no randomness in th...
by syzygy
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo
Replies: 84
Views: 1066

Re: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo

Yes, of course I read them. But if absolultely identically equal engines play each other thousands of times, the number of wins and losses will not be the same. And what is the probability that a match between absolutely identical engines ends up in 8-0 after discarding draws? And does this probabi...
by syzygy
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:26 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo
Replies: 84
Views: 1066

Re: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo

Using: https://www.3dkingdoms.com/chess/elo.htm The Elo advantage of an engine that wins 1000 games and loses zero games is +infinity: The Elo advantage of and engine that wins 1000 games, loses zero games and draws a mere 1000000000000000000000000000 times is zero. Yet the LOS calculation says tha...
by syzygy
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo
Replies: 84
Views: 1066

Re: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo

A tie or a draw is, by its very definition, an indicator of equality. The more ties between opponents, the more likely that they are of the same strength. This is obvious by the very definition of a tie or draw: Neither opponent was able to overcome the other. So you have difficulty with the idea t...
by syzygy
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:41 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo
Replies: 84
Views: 1066

Re: Throwing out draws to calculate Elo

It is a generally accepted practice to throw out draws and use only wins and losses to calculate the relative Elo of a set of engines. So let's do a gedankenexperiment: Engine A plays Engine B one goolgol (10^100) times. There are 10^100 - 8 draws and 8 wins for engine B. Standard calculation would...