Search found 2025 matches

by Michel
Mon Aug 19, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: best way to determine elos of a group
Replies: 51
Views: 4528

Re: best way to determine elos of a group

The joinntdist was still running after 10 minutes before i had to stop it. I will try again later to see what kind of error bounds it produces compared to the full hessian inverse method which seem to be the better approach so far IMO. Well near its maximum the posterior is multivariate Gaussian bu...
by Michel
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:13 am
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: best way to determine elos of a group
Replies: 51
Views: 4528

Re: best way to determine elos of a group

Ofcourse we can't totally remove elo inflation unless we do full round-robin tournaments. Just a tiny bit of nitpicking, since I think we basically agree. Elo inflation is not caused by the type of tournament. Elo inflation happens if the structure of the tournament is not fixed beforehand but depe...
by Michel
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:35 am
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: best way to determine elos of a group
Replies: 51
Views: 4528

Re: best way to determine elos of a group

Things are going pretty smoothly now after adding "gating" to the training. Networks that failed to equal or beat previous version are not used for generating new games. In just 18k games, it gained 900 elo gradually and is surely learning piece values. It currently knows to capture when it has the...
by Michel
Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: best way to determine elos of a group
Replies: 51
Views: 4528

Re: best way to determine elos of a group

To add: The effort in the first, "naive" case, is 5000 games. In the second, uniformly spaced --- 8000 games. In the third, k^2 spaced --- 8000 games again. The effort with hundreds of nets will be only slightly, say 10% larger than the "naive" case, and the effort goes to "firm up" the anchors. Mo...
by Michel
Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:06 am
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: best way to determine elos of a group
Replies: 51
Views: 4528

Re: best way to determine elos of a group

What I propose will be much better than just serially testing successive IDs. But how close is it to the optimal use of resources, I don't know. It depends on particularities of the task to be accomplished. Hope Michel comes with something meaningful. Well if the goal is _really_ to determine for e...
by Michel
Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:37 am
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: best way to determine elos of a group
Replies: 51
Views: 4528

Re: best way to determine elos of a group

Of course for each new engine we can determine the prior engine ID-i it would be best to play against to get the lowest possible variance for the absolute elo (absolute elo=elo difference with ID-0). It is a trade off between the variance of ID-i and the elo difference of the new engine (which can b...
by Michel
Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:42 am
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: best way to determine elos of a group
Replies: 51
Views: 4528

Re: best way to determine elos of a group

The problem with testing against ID-0 is after a while it is meaningless. e.g. ID-0 vs ID-600 Score of scorpio-nn1 vs scorpio-nn2: 2 - 63 - 1 [0.038] 66 Elo difference: -561.93 +/- nan ID-0 vs ID-800 Score of scorpio-nn1 vs scorpio-nn2: 4 - 77 - 1 [0.055] 82 Elo difference: -494.44 +/- 240.49 The f...
by Michel
Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: best way to determine elos of a group
Replies: 51
Views: 4528

Re: best way to determine elos of a group

The joinntdist was still running after 10 minutes before i had to stop it. I will try again later to see what kind of error bounds it produces compared to the full hessian inverse method which seem to be the better approach so far IMO. Well near its maximum the posterior is multivariate Gaussian bu...
by Michel
Wed Jul 31, 2019 6:32 am
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: best way to determine elos of a group
Replies: 51
Views: 4528

Re: best way to determine elos of a group

The joinntdist was still running after 10 minutes before i had to stop it. I will try again later to see what kind of error bounds it produces compared to the full hessian inverse method which seem to be the better approach so far IMO. Well near its maximum the posterior is multivariate Gaussian bu...
by Michel
Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:50 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: Programming and Technical Discussions
Topic: best way to determine elos of a group
Replies: 51
Views: 4528

Re: best way to determine elos of a group

Ok I am guessing that exactdist uses the (1-dimensional) posterior for one elo assuming the other elos are exact.

And jointdist uses the true posterior. It seems to me that for more than a few players the naive (non-Monte Carlo) implementation would take a lot of memory and would be slow.