there are many defences, perfect play is difficult to get at.mbabigian wrote:I've always thought database statistics were useless. So we agree there. The tree is just too vast and the samples so tiny, that the win/loss ratio means zero in nearly all situations.
Certainly the original line given looks very bad for black. My IDeA analysis in this variation would need substantially more effort to show black is in big trouble after White's move 6, but I may divert it from other things later this week to further investigate this.
Black's main alternatives are currently 6 ...Qa5 and ...Ne7 as played in the game.
Currently the scores favor White responding Qg4 (0.24) over Nf3 (0.00) in the ... Ne7 continuation.
Looking at how easily black can get into trouble even when played by a computer, the variation looks dangerous. The engines routinely fail to see the pawn pushes on the king side and strategic retreats like your Qf3! That said, I'm always surprised how many resources for defense can be found when talking about variations so early in the game. I'd be surprised if black was lost after White's move 6, but considering the issues you mentioned with the sheer depth, it is possible.
Mike
I know that line almost by heart, as I have played thousands games like that against SF.
difficult to make sense what is going on in the sea of variations, I am basically doing a positional assessment:
- pair of bishops
- long pointed chain c3-d4-e5, with blocked center and backward black f7 shelter pawn
- better mobility
white a2 and c2/c3 isolated/doubled pawns are worth very small penalty, especially with the presence of bishop pair.
so, white has substantial evaluation lead, but what happens with perfect play no one knows.
I guess Nf3 is better than early Qg4 sally(with a black knight on f4, the queen feels a bit awkward), in some lines a straight f2-f4 push is even stronger, those 0.0, 0.24 scores are really funny, +70-80cps white advantage is of course much more realistic.