ChessUSA.com TalkChess.com
Hosted by Your Move Chess & Games
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo
Post new topic    TalkChess.com Forum Index -> Computer Chess Club: General Topics Flat
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
H.G.Muller



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 12911
Location: Amsterdam
PostPost subject: Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo    Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 4:21 pm Reply to topic Reply with quote
michiguel wrote:
No, it is a drawback. If you score 3/4, the measure should give exactly the same value as 300/400. The error of the measure should be different.


Unfortunately hard math tells us that is not true. Unless you are prepared to accept asymmetric error bars, which is the same thing as admitting you are using a faulty average. Calculate it yourself, if you don't believe it. The likelihood for heads probability p in a coin flip after observing 3 heads is (unnormalized) p^3 * (1-p). The expectation value of this distribution is NOT 3/4, but 2/3.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
Display posts from previous:   
Subject Author Date/Time
EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:27 pm
      Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Sun Jun 24, 2012 4:38 pm
            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 5:46 pm
                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Edmund Moshammer Sun Jun 24, 2012 6:54 pm
                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 7:29 pm
                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:24 pm
                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:52 pm
                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:46 pm
                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:05 pm
                                                Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:44 pm
                                                      Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:58 pm
                                                            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:35 pm
                                                                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:12 pm
                                                                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:44 am
                                                                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Tue Jun 26, 2012 3:48 pm
                                                                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 4:21 pm
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:11 pm
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Wed Jun 27, 2012 5:29 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:32 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:26 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:48 pm
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Thu Jun 28, 2012 5:17 pm
                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:36 pm
                                                Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:00 pm
                                                Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:23 am
                                                      Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:18 pm
                                                            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:58 pm
                                                                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:09 pm
                                                                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:16 pm
                                                                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:43 pm
                                                                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:07 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:31 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Juan Molina Tue Jun 26, 2012 11:31 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 12:22 pm
                                                                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:15 am
                                                                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:32 am
                                                            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Mon Jun 25, 2012 10:01 pm
                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Sven Schüle Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:21 pm
                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:54 pm
                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Sven Schüle Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:22 am
                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:51 pm
                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:09 am
            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:26 am
Post new topic    TalkChess.com Forum Index -> Computer Chess Club: General Topics

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
Enhanced with Moby Threads