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H.G.Muller

Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 12911
Location: Amsterdam

Post subject: Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo    Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 4:21 pm

 michiguel wrote: No, it is a drawback. If you score 3/4, the measure should give exactly the same value as 300/400. The error of the measure should be different.

Unfortunately hard math tells us that is not true. Unless you are prepared to accept asymmetric error bars, which is the same thing as admitting you are using a faulty average. Calculate it yourself, if you don't believe it. The likelihood for heads probability p in a coin flip after observing 3 heads is (unnormalized) p^3 * (1-p). The expectation value of this distribution is NOT 3/4, but 2/3.
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Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:27 pm
Adam Hair Sun Jun 24, 2012 4:38 pm
Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 5:46 pm
Edmund Moshammer Sun Jun 24, 2012 6:54 pm
H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 7:29 pm
Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:24 pm
H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:52 pm
Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:46 pm
Miguel A. Ballicora Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:05 pm
H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:44 pm
Miguel A. Ballicora Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:58 pm
H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:35 pm
Miguel A. Ballicora Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:12 pm
H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:44 am
Miguel A. Ballicora Tue Jun 26, 2012 3:48 pm
Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 4:21 pm
Kai Laskos Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:11 pm
H.G.Muller Wed Jun 27, 2012 5:29 am
Kai Laskos Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:32 am
H.G.Muller Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:26 am
Kai Laskos Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:48 pm
H.G.Muller Thu Jun 28, 2012 5:17 pm
H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:36 pm
Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:00 pm
Adam Hair Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:23 am
H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:18 pm
Rémi Coulom Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:58 pm
H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:09 pm
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H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:43 pm
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H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:31 am
Juan Molina Tue Jun 26, 2012 11:31 am
H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 12:22 pm
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H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:32 am
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Kai Laskos Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:09 am
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