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EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo
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Kai Laskos



Joined: 26 Jul 2006
Posts: 3360
PostPost subject: Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo    Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:15 am Reply to topic Reply with quote
Rémi Coulom wrote:
hgm wrote:
Now the assumption that this power is 1, as the Logistic has, was actually supported by real data, where win probability times loss probability gave a curve that fitted the draw probability very well.


I am not aware of any serious study that compares the quality of different models. Well, I know some, but they are inconclusive (not enough data to make a statistically significant comparison of different models).

See for instance that paper:
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a236856.pdf

I started to take notes for a research I wanted to do. If I ever find a student willing to do it, I will finish that paper:
http://www.grappa.univ-lille3.fr/~coulom/ChessOutcomes.pdf

I am not very excited by this research project, because I expect all the models make predictions of similar quality, like the paper of Hal Stern showed. But he was using only a few human games. With the huge databases of computer games we have now, I expect we should be able to update the results of that old paper with a more conclusive comparison.

Rémi


I don't know if it's so hard to see. Do you want to bet that Bayeselo is compressing the ratings, and the predictions, or to put it differently, total (model+statistical) errors it introduces predicting the results of an engine-engine matches are larger than that of Ordo (not those shown as errors in the tools themselves)? I mean as Bayeselo is applied for CCRL ratings.

Kai
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Subject Author Date/Time
EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:27 pm
      Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Sun Jun 24, 2012 4:38 pm
            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 5:46 pm
                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Edmund Moshammer Sun Jun 24, 2012 6:54 pm
                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 7:29 pm
                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:24 pm
                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:52 pm
                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:46 pm
                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:05 pm
                                                Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:44 pm
                                                      Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:58 pm
                                                            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:35 pm
                                                                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:12 pm
                                                                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:44 am
                                                                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Tue Jun 26, 2012 3:48 pm
                                                                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 4:21 pm
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:11 pm
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Wed Jun 27, 2012 5:29 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:32 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:26 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:48 pm
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Thu Jun 28, 2012 5:17 pm
                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:36 pm
                                                Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:00 pm
                                                Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:23 am
                                                      Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:18 pm
                                                            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:58 pm
                                                                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:09 pm
                                                                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:16 pm
                                                                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:43 pm
                                                                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:07 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:31 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Juan Molina Tue Jun 26, 2012 11:31 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 12:22 pm
                                                                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:15 am
                                                                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:32 am
                                                            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Mon Jun 25, 2012 10:01 pm
                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Sven Schüle Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:21 pm
                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:54 pm
                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Sven Schüle Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:22 am
                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:51 pm
                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:09 am
            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:26 am
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