ChessUSA.com TalkChess.com
Hosted by Your Move Chess & Games
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo
Post new topic    TalkChess.com Forum Index -> Computer Chess Club: General Topics Flat
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Adam Hair



Joined: 06 May 2009
Posts: 1638
Location: Fuquay-Varina, North Carolina
PostPost subject: Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo    Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2012 10:01 pm Reply to topic Reply with quote
hgm wrote:
Adam Hair wrote:
I have to say I am a little lost. It makes sense to me that 2 draws could be replaced with a win and a loss, but not that one draw can be replaced with a win and a loss.


Well, this is what the Logistic model predicts. Because for the Logistic L(x)*(1-L(x)), which is the product of the probability for one win (L(x)) and one loss (1-L(x)), happens to be proportional to the probability of a single draw (which is given by the derivative of L(x)). Draws in this model are stronger evidence for equality of the players ratings than wins and losses, because they only occur with high frequency in a narrow range of rating difference, why the occasional win against a stronger opponent still occurs for much larger rating differences.

Now for other rating models it is in general not true that F*(1-F) ~ F'. (And in such models F' might not even model the draw rate. For instance, in the Gaussian model there is no exact equivalence between a draw and any number of wins + losses, even for fractional numbers. But in the limit of a large number of games, the likelihood for N draws approaches that of 0.9N wins plus 0.9N losses (IIRC). So one might say that each draw counts for 1.8 games there.

So it all depends on which power of F*(1-F) is proportional to F' (expanded as secod-order power series).

Now the assumption that this power is 1, as the Logistic has, was actually supported by real data, where win probability times loss probability gave a curve that fitted the draw probability very well.


Thanks H.G.. I think you have given me enough of an explanation for me to work out my misunderstanding (along with some additional reading and pencil/paper work).
_________________
Adam's Computer Chess Pages
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
Display posts from previous:   
Subject Author Date/Time
EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:27 pm
      Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Sun Jun 24, 2012 4:38 pm
            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 5:46 pm
                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Edmund Moshammer Sun Jun 24, 2012 6:54 pm
                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 7:29 pm
                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:24 pm
                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:52 pm
                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:46 pm
                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:05 pm
                                                Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:44 pm
                                                      Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:58 pm
                                                            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:35 pm
                                                                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:12 pm
                                                                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:44 am
                                                                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Tue Jun 26, 2012 3:48 pm
                                                                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 4:21 pm
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:11 pm
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Wed Jun 27, 2012 5:29 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:32 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:26 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:48 pm
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Thu Jun 28, 2012 5:17 pm
                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:36 pm
                                                Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:00 pm
                                                Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:23 am
                                                      Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:18 pm
                                                            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:58 pm
                                                                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:09 pm
                                                                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:16 pm
                                                                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:43 pm
                                                                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:07 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:31 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Juan Molina Tue Jun 26, 2012 11:31 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 12:22 pm
                                                                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:15 am
                                                                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:32 am
                                                            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Mon Jun 25, 2012 10:01 pm
                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Sven Schüle Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:21 pm
                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:54 pm
                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Sven Schüle Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:22 am
                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:51 pm
                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:09 am
            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:26 am
Post new topic    TalkChess.com Forum Index -> Computer Chess Club: General Topics

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
Enhanced with Moby Threads