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EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo
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H.G.Muller



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 12777
Location: Amsterdam
PostPost subject: Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo    Posted: Sun Jun 24, 2012 7:29 pm Reply to topic Reply with quote
Laskos wrote:
Thanks. It seems that Bayeselo gives more or less correct result only by using prior 0, number of draws 0, mm 0 1, etc.


This is only because you have the wrong notion about what would be the 'correct result'. In other words, BayesElo is right, and your hand calculation is wrong.

The number of draws is significant, as the rating models predict, and actual statistics on computer games confirmed. Your simplistic hand calculation does not take that properly into account. Maximum likelihood, as used by BayesElo, does.

So my advice would be: use BayesElo, rather than the others.
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Subject Author Date/Time
EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:27 pm
      Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Sun Jun 24, 2012 4:38 pm
            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 5:46 pm
                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Edmund Moshammer Sun Jun 24, 2012 6:54 pm
                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 7:29 pm
                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:24 pm
                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:52 pm
                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:46 pm
                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:05 pm
                                                Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:44 pm
                                                      Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:58 pm
                                                            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:35 pm
                                                                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:12 pm
                                                                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:44 am
                                                                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Miguel A. Ballicora Tue Jun 26, 2012 3:48 pm
                                                                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 4:21 pm
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:11 pm
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Wed Jun 27, 2012 5:29 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:32 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:26 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:48 pm
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Thu Jun 28, 2012 5:17 pm
                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:36 pm
                                                Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:00 pm
                                                Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:23 am
                                                      Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:18 pm
                                                            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:58 pm
                                                                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:09 pm
                                                                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:16 pm
                                                                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:43 pm
                                                                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:07 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:31 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Juan Molina Tue Jun 26, 2012 11:31 am
                                                                                          Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 12:22 pm
                                                                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:15 am
                                                                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo H.G.Muller Tue Jun 26, 2012 6:32 am
                                                            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Mon Jun 25, 2012 10:01 pm
                  Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Sven Schüle Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:21 pm
                        Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:54 pm
                              Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Sven Schüle Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:22 am
                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Rémi Coulom Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:51 pm
                                    Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Kai Laskos Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:09 am
            Re: EloStat, Bayeselo and Ordo Adam Hair Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:26 am
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