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Elo Increase per Doubling
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Don Dailey



Joined: 29 Apr 2008
Posts: 4320
PostPost subject: Re: Elo Increase per Doubling    Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 1:41 pm Reply to topic Reply with quote
petero2 wrote:

My parameters were also computed by minimizing the least squares error. I happened to have an old octave implementation of the Gauss-Newton method that I used. To see how much the estimate is affected by measurement errors, I added normally distributed noise with standard deviation 10 to the rating values and computed the corresponding maximum ELO. I repeated this 100000 times and made a histogram:

Average value: 4497
Standard deviation: 116

Although, I believe an even bigger error source is the fact that the true rating curve is most likely not an exponential function, so the large extrapolation is probably unsound.


That is an interesting histogram. That gives me some confidence that this is not hugely effected by minor errors.

I'm repeating the study with critter. Will be very interesting to see how the asymptote line compares to Komodo. The final value of the Komodo test was an asymptote of 4209.7.

I'm using only 12 levels instead of 13 (because this test takes too long to run) and even though each level has played only about 80 games so far the numbers are looking very similar to komodo's numbers. The current max elo computed by the critter run is 4129.6 - that is pretty amazing similarity!
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Subject Author Date/Time
Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 11:40 am
      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Mon May 07, 2012 12:04 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 4:48 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Mon May 07, 2012 4:54 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 8:50 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Mon May 07, 2012 9:00 pm
                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Mark Pearce Thu May 10, 2012 4:43 pm
      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling H.G.Muller Mon May 07, 2012 12:13 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Michel Van den Bergh Mon May 07, 2012 2:01 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 5:12 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Mon May 07, 2012 6:40 pm
                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Robert Wagner Campos Tue May 08, 2012 12:38 am
                              Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 3:32 am
                                    Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 10:02 am
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Tue May 08, 2012 10:55 am
                                                Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 8:08 pm
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 11:29 am
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Kai Laskos Tue May 08, 2012 11:59 am
                                                Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 8:13 pm
                                                      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Kai Laskos Tue May 08, 2012 10:21 pm
                                                            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 10:52 pm
                                                            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 11:14 pm
                                                                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Kai Laskos Wed May 09, 2012 12:20 am
                                                                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Wed May 09, 2012 2:44 am
                                                                              Re: Elo Increase per Doubling H.G.Muller Wed May 09, 2012 8:05 am
                                                                                    Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Wed May 09, 2012 5:12 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Larry Kaufman Thu May 10, 2012 3:11 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 5:03 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Larry Kaufman Thu May 10, 2012 5:19 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 12:43 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Peter Österlund Thu May 10, 2012 4:59 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Thu May 10, 2012 5:09 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 5:41 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 5:46 pm
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 12:09 pm
                                                Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:10 pm
                                                      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 12:28 pm
                                                            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:36 pm
                                                                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 1:15 pm
                                                                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 2:37 pm
                                                                              Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Tue May 08, 2012 3:15 pm
                                                                                    Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 6:15 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Peter Österlund Tue May 08, 2012 8:06 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 8:25 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Peter Österlund Tue May 08, 2012 9:00 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Tue May 08, 2012 9:02 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 9:06 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 4:26 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Peter Österlund Wed May 09, 2012 4:52 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 5:19 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 1:41 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 4:52 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Thu May 10, 2012 9:07 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 10:55 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Fri May 11, 2012 12:46 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Fri May 11, 2012 1:06 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 5:00 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 9:05 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 9:18 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 11:26 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 2:50 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 15, 2012 3:17 am
                                                                                    Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 6:23 pm
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 12:18 pm
                                                Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:25 pm
                                                      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:27 pm
                                                            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Robert Hyatt Tue May 08, 2012 3:36 pm
                                                                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 5:32 pm
      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Daniel Shawul Fri May 11, 2012 5:48 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Fri May 11, 2012 6:30 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Fri May 11, 2012 6:52 pm
                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Fri May 11, 2012 7:05 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Daniel Shawul Fri May 11, 2012 7:08 pm
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